Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Finally a move that gets attention. The first primary line of defense comes at SPX 1800 where both the 50 day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resides. How all this aligns with TD Sequential across the various timeframes will help shape the next probable move.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

In the event SPX closes above 1842.37, back to neutral. Image

The 2 hour timeframe recorded a deferred 13 yesterday. To qualify a full TD Sell Countdown, the 13 needs to at least trade to SPX 1847.76. This will be non-event as soon as the 2 hour records a full 9 count TD Buy Setup (currently @3). As mentioned, how the SPX handles the confluent support from the 50 DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will help in determining the next path of least resistance.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral with a close above SPX 1842.37, the bullish price flip on the 4 hour timeframe. ImageImageImageImage

All key indices have price flipped bearish. The run-up of the recent TD Sell Setup @9 on the SPX still has significance. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if the following indices price flip on their respective weekly charts: SPX closes below 1818.32, Russell 2000 (RUT), 1146.47, Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), 4104.74, and the Dow (DJI), 16221.14. Reinstate bullish outlook if SPX closes above 1850. (updated January 13th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

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