Monday, January 13, 2014

Earnings season kicks off this week with the large cap financial companies. As an example just how offbeat expectations are, per FactSet, financials are projected to report the highest year-over-year earnings growth and the largest decline in year-over-year revenues. For the equity markets, a committed direction has not been called upon yet. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

On the lookout for a potential top around SPX 1850. Switch to bearish if close is below SPX 1825.27. Alternatively, switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1837.88 and crosses below 1825.27 intraday.  ImageImage

On the 2 hour chart, TD Sell Countdown is still one bar from recording a 13 and it will be a deferred 13 until the SPX matches or exceeds 1847.76. A deferred 13 came close last Friday but the opening 2 hour bar could not exceed the prior 2 bars’ high. Note on the 4 hour chart, the SPX is nested in the Keltner/Bollinger squeeze as diagrammed by the TTM_Squeeze indicator, signaling a directional move is pending. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish with SPX closing below 1826.77. (updated January 9th)

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if the following indices price flip on their respective weekly charts: SPX closes below 1818.32, Russell 2000 (RUT), 1146.47, Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ), 4104.74, and the Dow (DJI), 16221.14. Reinstate bullish outlook if SPX closes above 1850.ImageImageImageImage

Here is the thought process behind a potential bullish outlook. Since the weekly bullish price flip ending on December 20th, there was a decision to stay neutral considering the daily charts were about to record price exhaustion signals and any gains will be marginal. That is still the prognostication but if the active TD Sell Setup stays enforced on the weekly charts, potentially staying neutral through an entire TD Sell Setup is not viable. The designated bullish level is above SPX 1850.

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Will flip back to neutral with a monthly close under the January price flip level of SPX 1681.55. (updated December 1st)

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EQUITY SETUP UPDATE: AAPL (AAPL)

Low risk/reward bullish setup between now and 518.53. Stay on the lookout for a bottoming process. ImageImage

Since the last October 29th update, Apple worked off the negative bearish engulfing pattern by consolidating for 18 trading days before completing another TD Sell Setup @9 on December 5th. Since the high, Apple has completed a reverse setup by recording a TD Buy Setup @9 last Friday. For Apple bulls, this sets up another bullish setup as the 9th bar of TD Buy Setup recorded above the TDST Support established by the low of bar 1 of the prior TD Sell Setup. There is some added significance to the 520 level as 522.70 represents a bearish price flip for the close of February. Reevaluation will be considered if Apple trades below 518.53.  

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