Monday, April 25, 2016

Continuing on both the Nasdaq (COMP) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) weekly charts from last week, the Nasdaq count has been fulfilled in terms of a ‘perfected’ count with bar 8’s higher high. However, if the Nasdaq should selloff this week, it would be likely the active TD Sell Setup will be cancelled if the weekly close is below 4914.54. On the RUT, a qualified TD Sell Setup @9 is recorded, making it more vulnerable to a selloff. Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.03.53 AMScreen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.12.17 AM

Regarding the equity markets as a whole, there is nothing concrete to say a significant selloff is underway. The missing narrative is the big down candle. That’s for the medium term. The bigger picture suggests the S&P 500 (SPX) 1810.10 low on February 11, 2016, is history and the next big move is to the upside. The breadth of the market rally has been substantial and supports higher prices. Fed day comes this Wednesday and that is the focus for direction.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: 

Apologies for not posting this timeframe. There are bugs in the 4 hour chart, and it is not reading correctly. I should be able to resolve this soon.  


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2100.80.

Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.36.05 AMConsidering the SPX close came less than a point of the TD Trend Factor and the weekly close did not close above the 2104.27 TDST Resistance level, Friday’s bearish price flip will receive the benefit of the doubt. Any reverse bullish price flip this week will revert the outlook back to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2072.78 on Friday, April 29, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-22 at 8.27.59 PMIn the bulls favor, the higher high and close beyond the “9” count TD Sell Setup indicates the trend still has momentum. For the waiting bears, the inability to establish a close above the TDST Resistance at 2104.27 keeps the current outlook as cautious. A close below 2072.78 will swing the outlook to negative.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


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Monday, April 18, 2016

The S&P 500 (SPX) is at a point where some drawdown is expected. The notable chart is on the SPX weekly where a TD Sell Setup @9 has been recorded. To gain even more perspective, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the Russell 2000 are shown below.

Screen Shot 2016-04-16 at 1.38.03 PMThe COMPQ has an active TD Sell Setup @7. A trade equal or higher than 4961.30 this week would qualify bar 8 as having the true high, and ‘perfect’ the count.

Screen Shot 2016-04-16 at 2.19.06 PMFor the weekly RUT, the TD Sell Setup@8 is ‘perfected’ and free to move lower. Similar to the SPX, both the COMPQ and RUT will likely complete their TD counts below their respective TDST Resistance, providing additional impetus to the bears. If a selloff becomes a bit severe in the coming weeks, SPX 1810 is expected to hold as outlined in previous posts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2061.72, the daily SPX bearish price flip.   

Screen Shot 2016-04-17 at 10.47.55 AMThe rally is managing itself well by not breaching 2028.31. This keeps the rally alive. However, with price exhaustion signals coming from longer duration timeframes, any more upside will be suspect.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2061.72

Screen Shot 2016-04-15 at 8.48.26 PMLast week produced another trend exhaustion point with TD Sell Countdown recording a ’13’. If the active TD Sell Setup becomes nullified, especially if the occurs below the 2078.36 TDST Resistance level sometime this week, then expectations for additional upside is greatly diminished.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2035.94 on Friday, April 22, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-15 at 8.31.56 PMClassic TD suggests that if TD Sell Setup records a “9” just below the TDST Resistance level, a potential trend change is in the works. This describes exactly what is happening now, and the weekly SPX gets a chance this week to prove the bull run from the rally low of 1810.10 (February 12, 2016) will turn into a bear run. A close below 2035.94 this week should do it.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


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Monday, April 11, 2016

Brazilian equities have gained some momentum in recent weeks, and TD indicators point to a bottoming process. The backstory is while Brazil is locked into a recessionary crisis, the political turmoil surrounding the possible impeachment of their current president may provide some political will to end the recession. That possibility is providing some support for Brazil’s Bovespa index which has fallen about 40% from the highs made in 2014. From the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) shown below, all indications point to further gains. The monthly chart recorded its first bullish price flip since September of 2014. This is the primary trend to watch – to see if TD Sell Setup can stay active. The weekly chart broke above the 24.18 TDST resistance. This is significant since it indicates a likelihood TD Sell Setup will lateral to TD Sell Countdown, the trending component of TD Sequential. However, the daily EWZ is nearing their price exhaustion “13’s”. While there is a decent chance it may just recycle higher, any volatility from the economic front and/or the political situation will be considered buying opportunities. Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 10.27.24 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-08 at 10.27.41 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-08 at 9.47.36 PM

For the S&P 500 (SPX), there are market moving news items this week starting with economic releases from China, and the beginning of earnings season.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2028.31 mid-session. Back to neutral if the end of day close returns back above 2028.31.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 9.23.13 PMWith TD Buy Setup @4, a bearish view can be taken if a “5” count is recorded below the TDST Resistance at 2028.31. if the bear view turns out to be false, a good indication would be if the subsequent bar trades and closes above 2028.31.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2028.31.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 8.58.21 PMAlthough volatility crept higher, the SPX stayed in a relatively tight trading range. Very similar to last week’s outlook, caution is warranted due to a multitude of overhead resistance levels, and TD Sell Countdown nearing completion.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 8.43.03 PMThe weekly SPX TD Sell Setup is on bar “8”, and technically, it has not been “perfected”. This leaves the possibility of another run for a marginal high. However, even if a TD Sell Setup @9 is recorded and “perfected”, the uptrend should show some cracks as the TD Sell Setup @9 will likely record below the weekly TDST Resistance at 2104.27. If the weekly should close below 2049.58, that will cancel the TD Sell Setup, and the SPX will likely see more trendless churning.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


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Monday, April 4, 2014

There are many headwinds coming up on the S&P 500 (SPX). After last week’s Janet Yellen dovish remarks, the short term SPX TD counts recycled higher, bringing the daily SPX price exhaustion signals into the spotlight. Observing the charts, expectations for the SPX to begin struggling between the current level (2072.78) and 2112.02, the TD Trend Factor looks certain.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.00.32 AMThere are too many ambiguous signals to take any direction at the moment. The positives are the four hour SPX held the previous TDST Support at 2010.04, and it recycled higher to a new TD Sell Setup. The negatives are the completed full price exhaustion signals notated by the down blue arrows, and the SPX is now pressing against the longer duration daily TDST Resistance. Since price action is currently bullish, a bearish outlook can be considered with a close below the current 2028.31 TDST Support.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 9.21.16 AMTD Combo Sell recorded a “13” on Friday’s close. With TD Sell Countdown nearing a “13” and the rally coming against daily and weekly TDST resistance levels, a neutral stance is still warranted. Furthermore, a third degree TD Trend Factor is at 2112.02, providing more caution.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.33.24 AMIf there is a selloff as indicated by the shorter duration timeframes, the weekly TD Sell Setup stays intact as long as the weekly close does not see a reverse price flip at 2022.19 or simply the weekly SPX does not close below 20122.19 this Friday.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.38.40 AMThe TTM_Squeeze is entering another month of red. The longer the SPX coils, the potential to unleash a lasting rally or selloff is high.


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Monday, March 28, 2016

 

With the Federal Reserve Board more optimistic on the US outlook, they are inclined to raise rates again sooner than later. If the upcoming Friday’s job report produces solid numbers, this may ring true, and as a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) should be trading accordingly higher with rates. However, looking at the daily US Dollar index (DXY) below, the trend direction is lower as the daily TD Buy Countdown is currently active @3. However, TD Sell Setup @2 is also active, and if TD Sell Setup records a “9”, that will disqualify TD Buy Countdown. This will gain traction if the upcoming job’s number this Friday produces a solid number. Everything boils down to Friday. Longer term, the bias is to trend higher or chop around. If the monthly DXY closes under 94.811 on a monthly basis and the weekly 10 Year Treasury Index (TNX) closes below 16.14, that will indicate deteriorating financial conditions, and the Fed is in danger of being on the wrong side.Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 4.52.20 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-27 at 5.39.26 PMScreen Shot 2016-03-27 at 5.48.12 PM

As global markets are stabilizing, it has coincided with a rally in the US equity markets. However, the short term S&P 500 (SPX) TD indicators have signaled upside price exhaustion last week, and equities subsequently sold off. As long as the SPX holds the 2010.04 TDST Support on the four hour chart, the bullish forces are still present. If the SPX sells off below the 2000 level at the close of the week, this will increase the probability that the SPX will trade in a smaller scale sideways trend – possibly into a triangle type pattern.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2016-03-26 at 10.26.10 AMTwo of three price exhaustion signals came as TD Sell Setup @9 and TD Combo Sell @13 came together in back to back bars, as notated by the down blue arrows. Until the 2010.04 TDST Support Level gets taken out, a bearish outlook won’t be considered.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-26 at 10.25.50 AMThere is additional room for more upside before full price exhaustion occurs. However, the 2078.36 TDST Resistance is just about 2% away from the current close. Therefore, any upside potential doesn’t warrant a favorable risk/reward long trade.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-26 at 10.25.28 AMA close below SPX 2000 (technically 1999.99) this Friday, April 1, 2016, will produce a reverse price flip. While some consideration will be given for bearish outlook, the combination of strong breadth and high price retracement off the 1810.10 lows will likely produce more choppy price action if 2000 gets taken out.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 


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Monday, March 21, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-03-19 at 4.10.07 PM2016 marked gold’s upside reversal, and it has been impressive. There looks to be more gains in store, but after a near term retracement first. Beginning with the long term view, it was just about a certainty the monthly SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) would continue lower with a clean selloff below the 108.95 TDST Support level. However, GLD never capitulated, but traded right around the TDST level. After completing a TD Buy Setup @9, GLD reversed hard. The interpretation now is higher prices for the months ahead. Follow the active monthly TD Sell Setup to insure momentum is still on track.

Screen Shot 2016-03-19 at 2.43.51 PM Screen Shot 2016-03-19 at 2.38.28 PMThe weekly chart has recorded an active TD Sell Setup @9, and has not recorded a reverse price flip yet. Although this states a strong market, a pause would be expected here (currently in play). The daily GLD chart is also in agreement with the weekly chart. The daily GLD has recorded an ‘unperfected’ TD Sell Setup right against a fourth degree TD Trend Factor at 122.52. While the monthly chart looks to have a sustained rally, both the daily and weekly charts are at price exhaustion points. Note on the daily GLD, a new high will ‘perfect’ the TD Sell Setup @9 and also record a TD Sell Countdown @13.


 

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if four-hour SPX closes below 2040.69 on Monday’s close.

Screen Shot 2016-03-18 at 9.47.28 PMAs the short term timeframe approaches the daily TDST Resistance level at 2078.36, more caution is warranted with tighter stops.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2015.93 on Monday’s close.

Screen Shot 2016-03-18 at 9.37.08 PMThe SPX is closing in on the 2078.36 TDST Resistance level. For the remainder of the week, bearish price flips (and any subsequent bullish price flips) will be considered neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-18 at 9.02.19 PMAlthough it seems like a certainty that TD Sell Setup will achieve a 9 count, but is there enough momentum to break through the 2104.27 TDST Resistance level?


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 


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Monday, March 14, 2016

A full Fed meeting this week with the Janet Yellen Q&A press conference. What she says will help shape what policy decisions may come in the future. For equity performance, the current setup is for eventual further gains, but better buying opportunities will come in time. This will be the base case as long as the global picture continues to normalize or for the purpose of this blog – the monthly TD Buy Setups in various charts (emerging markets, crude oil, Russell 2000, etc.) continues to hold.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if four-hour SPX closes below 1979.26, same as daily price flip. 

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.47.42 PMSince the short term SPX is locked in an uptrend, any neutral stance will be the lowest bearish price flip level close between the daily or four hour SPX chart.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 1979.26.

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.50.02 PMWith the daily SPX in TD Sell Countdown, expectations are for the SPX to continue trending upwards to the 2078.36 TDST Resistance.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.51.19 PMIn hindsight, stamping a “buy” right at the initial bullish price flip would have been beneficial. But at this juncture, holding cash and wait for patterns to unfold makes more sense.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 


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