Thursday, August 27, 2015

On the four hour S&P 500 (SPX), after a few volatile twitches, the SPX recorded a bullish price flip. Here are some upside levels to be aware of for Thursday. If the SPX closes above 1970.89 (daily bullish price flip), probability is high for the SPX to test the initial breakdown at the 2051.40 level. Keep an eye on the our hour TD Sell Setup since this the momentum rally gauge. If the TD Sell Setup stays active, then the rally stays on track until possibly next Monday, August 31st, where the four hour SPX will record the 8 and 9 counts. If the SPX cannot close above 1970.89 on Thursday’s close, then a resumption of the selloff stays alive.  Screen Shot 2015-08-26 at 9.07.33 PMScreen Shot 2015-08-26 at 9.07.21 PM

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Tuesday, August 25, 2015

QUICK UPDATE: One dreadful opening is all it took. The S&P 500 (SPX) is right in the realm of a snap back if we use the four hour SPX time frame and the various down side levels. The TD Buy Setup should be able to record a 9 count early in the session, and although it may not be ‘perfected’ (8 or 9 bar trading at or below bar 7’s low at 1867.01), we will give it a pass considering the drastic opening yesterday.

If the SPX does it get that bounce on time, the quality of that bounce will be judged if the SPX can close above 1971.95 today. If the selling continues hard past the 1850.61 weekly TDST Support level, then it’s conceivable that we are going through something much more brutal than selling off excess bullishness. Something akin to Tom McClellan’s convincing chart that is both uncanny and virtually unexplainable using Eurodollar data culled from the Commitment of Trader’s report.  See McClellan’s link here for his explanation: http://www.mcoscillator.com/

Screen Shot 2015-08-24 at 6.09.40 PM


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Monday, August 24, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 9.50.22 PM Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 9.50.46 PM Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 9.51.54 PMBrazil does not have a whole lot going in its favor. There is a deepening recession and a political dark cloud. Using time frame continuity, the Brazil iShares ETF (EWZ) is nearing a tradeable bounce on the daily chart. To objectively see this, refer to the EWZ monthly chart first. A ‘perfected’ 9 count on TD Buy Setup was recorded last month in July which indicates some type of upward retracement is expected. However the month of August is showing TD Buy Setup going straight to TD Buy Countdown. With a week left to go in the month, if a reversal is going to show up, ideally we want to see this month or next month close at or above the TDST Support at 31.14. For the weekly chart, it has recorded two price exhaustion points, indicated by the blue arrows. They represent recorded 13’s on TD Buy Countdown and TD Combo. The trifecta would be TD Buy Setup, which can conclude this trading week or the next. Narrowing it down even more, the daily EWZ is a few days away from recording it’s own TD Buy Countdown/TD Combo Buy @13. Assuming this occurs as projected this week or next, we want to see a strong rebound to reach towards the monthly TDST Support at 31.14 by the end of September. Failure to do so enhances the continuation of the selloff.

US equity markets finally became toxic. For the S&P 500 (SPX), look for a short term bottom late Monday/early Tuesday. A more significant counter trend rally could occur right around the 1900 – 1920 level. The 1850 level is the level that could set the stage for critical support. Ultimately, I still believe the SPX is just carving out one giant trading range. Technical details below…

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2036.50 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 6.24.27 PMThe active TD Buy Setup should have no problem recording a 9 count. How the SPX responds when it gets there is the more pressing question.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch back to neutral if SPX closes above the previous 2051.40 four hour SPX TDST Support level.

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 6.19.55 PMNow that the SPX has dropped more than 5.5% from the top, the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor is no longer relevant. It has proven its usefulness, but now the focus is on downside levels. Asset Managers often look at moving averages, or round numbers when buying dips. They also program in certain percentage levels centered around 3%, 5%, and 10%. Looking specifically at the 10% correct level, we have 1921.25 drawn in and couple that with a 2nd degree TD Trend Factor, we have 1903.96. A TD Buy Setup @9 would make a nice compliment for a nice rally if the SPX gets around that those levels. Let’s watch to see how the week unfolds first.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2103.84 on Friday, August 28, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-08-23 at 6.08.40 PMThe week ended with TD Buy Setup @2. With a convincing downside candle, the 1850.61 TDST level is the initial support for the longer term.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.


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Monday, August 17, 2015

Crude Oil prices are falling in line with the monthly Keltner/Bollinger squeeze. The troublesome part is there is more downside potential as the TD counts are still ongoing. The popular crude oil etf, US Oil Fund (USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude oil, is currently a falling knife. A look at the DeMark TD counts shows the monthly USO has just lateraled into TD Buy Countdown @2. The TTM_Squeeze also implies the worst has not been realized yet. Couple that with the partnership tax treatment of USO, the odds are not good for the long term. Both the daily and weekly charts are continuously recycling their counts lower. For the equity markets, Summer doldrums are taking over.

Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.18.00 PM Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.17.50 PM Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.17.37 PM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.23.44 PMThe volatility of the markets has created enough reverse price flips that makes trading the 4 hour SPX impractical. For those still intent on following the price flips, using shorter time frames would be helpful.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.31.15 PMStill treading water.

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2126.64 or bearish if SPX closes below 2079.65 on Friday, August 21, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-08-16 at 9.42.55 PMThe weekly Bollinger/Keltner (TTM_Squeeze) is fertile ground for a big move, indicating a dangerous landscape for bulls or bears. Breaching the levels indicated above the weekly SPX chart should provide the initial catalyst.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 


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Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Spirited rally today. Not convinced a bottom has been made. Looking more like the same range bound trading. But if we stay with direction of the price flips, the 4 hour S&P 500 (SPX) has turned bullish. Screen Shot 2015-08-10 at 9.27.40 PM


 

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Monday, August 10, 2015

The 215k job additions from last Friday’s non-farm payroll report possibly showed enough strength to prompt the Federal Reserve to begin the cycle of interest rate hikes. Using CBOE’s 10 year Treasury Index (TNX) as a representative of 10 year Treasury bond rates, the DeMark TDST Support Level @16.14 or 1.614% is providing the foundation where yields should stay above. The monthly TNX is trading off the bottom and just waiting for a catalyst to move higher. That could come through the Federal Reserve meeting due up on September 16-17.

Screen Shot 2015-08-08 at 7.08.03 PM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Bullish if close is above 2077.78 midday or if it cannot close below 2083.84 at the close.

Screen Shot 2015-08-07 at 11.05.25 PMFollowing the price flips are only yielding mild results since the 4 hour SPX chart is coiling in tighter ranges. It is also in an active TD Buy Countdown, which is indicating lower prices. However, prices are still trading above the TDST Support level at 2051.40, indicating more non directional trading.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Consideration to switch to bearish if SPX closes any day this week below the 4 hour SPX TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2015-08-07 at 11.08.34 PMWith the absence of any markers on the daily chart, the default will be the 4 hour SPX TDST Support for the bearish side.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2126.64 on Friday, August 14, 2015. Otherwise staying neutral.

Screen Shot 2015-08-07 at 11.10.16 PMThere is not a lot to go on this week. Just more of the same.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 


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Monday, August 3, 2015

With the July month end, the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) is transitioning from upside momentum to sideways price action. Given the monthly Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the monthly Russell 2000 (RUT) are showing different price paths, corrections are likely to be rotational through various sectors until all the bullish overbought excesses moderate…or a quick swift price correction takes hold. The Nasdaq from a TD perspective is clearly recycling higher as the late 2014 “13’s” has not materialized in halting the uptrend. On the other end, The RUT has produced a bearish price flip as momentum has waned. Note it is one count away form a completed TD Sell Countdown 13.

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 5.53.14 PMScreen Shot 2015-08-02 at 5.52.04 PM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Bullish if close is above 2108.50 midday or above 2109.00 at the close.

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 5.54.00 PMAggressive traders should continue to follow the price flips since the range between TDST lines are wide.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish consideration if daily SPX closes above 2124.35 on any day of the week. Bearish if SPX closes below the 4 hour TDST Support at 2051.40 by Tuesday’s August 4, 2015 close. 

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 10.32.47 PMAlthough a bearish price flip will occur if SPX closes below 2093.25 on the close of Monday, August 3, it won’t be enough to challenge the neutral outlook. The TD Trend Factor is serving as a good gauge as a bull/bear level.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2076.62 on Friday, August 7, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 10.36.39 PMThe TTM_Squeeze continues to coil. If it pulls lower, SPX 1850 looks like a nice target.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 10.39.02 PMNote the 8 month moving average is flattening.


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