There will be another policy announcement when the FOMC meets again this week. The Fed is constantly on the verge of raising rates, but finds it difficult with sluggish global growth and uncertainty. With the US elections looming, market expectations for a rate hike will likely not occur this week. However, on the CBOE 10 year Treasury Index (TNX), the weekly chart will show clear price exhaustion with one more spike lower, increasing the chance that 10 year treasuries will finally find a significant low. Both TD Buy Countdown and TD Combo Buy are closing in on their respective 13’s. The monthly TNX is also nearing a 9 on TD Buy Setup, which provides support for the weekly. Note on the monthly TNX that the 16.14 TDST Support has been broken. This does not have much significance since the monthky bar that closed under the 16.14 TDST Support was a TD Buy Setup @6. It would have more significance if it was TD Buy Setup @1, @2, or @3. For stocks, US equity outflows and negative sentiment are in abundance. That alone should keep prices afloat for awhile longer.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 2173.78.
When there is a recorded TD Sell Setup @9, the typical response is a pause, or pullback. With the recent recorded 9, that pullback scenario is still viable, but it is also challenged with an unbroken TD Sell Setup @11. Until there is a bearish price flip, the signal is bullish.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2059.74, the monthly bearish price flip, on Friday, July 29, 2016.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 2059.74 on Friday, July 29, 2016.