Monday, December 11, 2017

Bullish December seasonality is working against the daily S&P 500 (SPX) TD Sell Setup @9, which is currently resulting in some choppy market action. A Santa Claus rally still looks viable, but looking forward, it’s January 2018 where some volatility is expected to take place.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2629.57 on Monday, December 11, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2578.85 on Friday, December 15, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2471.65 on Friday, December 29, 2017


 

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Monday, December 4, 2017

The monthly S&P 500 (SPX) has recorded a TD Combo Sell @13. This opens the window for momentum to stall anytime. Making an attempt to hone in on the timing, we can try to synchronize the timeframes. The first test comes now since the daily TD Sell Setup has recorded a 9 last Friday. If markets are ready to sell off on a larger scale, the SPX should look to trade under the daily TDST Support level at 2578.24. Hold 2578.24, the SPX should continue higher until the monthly reaches a TD Sell Countdown @13 at the end of December.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2627.04 on Monday, December 4, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2582.30 on Friday, December 8, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2471.65 on Friday, December 29, 2017

SPX - Monthly


 

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Monday, November 27, 2017

The furthest the S&P 500 (SPX) drew down since November 7, 2017 when TD Sell Countdown recorded a 13 on November 7, 2017, was only 1.52%. With the SPX marking a new closing highs, it’s upward and onward to close out the year. It is still possible to see the SPX trade under the former closing high of 2594.38 since price exhaustion points for the weekly SPX are still relevant. To stay relevant, the weekly SPX should show signs that it will close the week at or bekow 2610.67, the TD Risk Level. Even if it is a bull trap, and prices fall, damage should be minimal – possibly down to 2560.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2582.14 on Monday, November 27, 2017

SPX - Daily

 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2587.84 on Friday, December 1, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2470.30 on Thursday, November 30, 2017


 

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Monday, November 20, 2017

Markets are holding with a developing trading range. With a short holiday week, look for the seasonal upside bias. If the S&P 500 (SPX) should close above 2590.64, it is likely it will hold.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice, but there is an upside bias

SPX - Daily

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2581.07 on Friday, November 24, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2470.30 on Thursday, November 30, 2017


 

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Monday, November 13, 2017

The S&P 500 (SPX) is now exhibiting a bit more wobblier price action. If the weekly SPX bearish price flip at 2575.21 is challenged this week, then the uptrend becomes more vulnerable.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2575.21 on Friday, November 17, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2470.30 on Thursday, October 30, 2017


 

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Monday, November 6, 2017

The S&P 500 (SPX) has moved up into the price exhaustion area where the daily SPX recorded a TD Combo Sell recorded a 13 and it is two counts away from a TD Sell Countdown @ 13. Furthermore, the weekly SPX shows it has recorded both a TD Sell Setup @ 9 and TD Sell Countdown @13. The interpretation is to expect the market to begin to stall or selloff starting this week, perhaps after the daily SPX records a TD Sell Countdown @13. If a selloff does ensue, and closes the week below 2553.17, an overall neutral approach will be taken. Going forward, the weekly TDST Support level at 2446.55 becomes a focal point. Consideration to turn bearish sits at that level. If it holds, then it has a chance to reconcile with the monthly SPX charts and see new highs again, which sets up an interesting 2018.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2575.26 on Monday, November 6, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2553.17 on Friday, November 10, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2470.30 on Thursday, October 30, 2017

SPX - Monthly


 

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Monday, October 30, 2017

COMP - WeeklyThe update on the weekly S&P 500 (SPX) TD Sequential/TD Combo Sell shows they are one count away from recording a TD Sell Setup @9 and TD Sell Countdown @13. Once this process completes, the weekly SPX will record full price exhaustion as TD Combo Sell has already recorded a 13. To put this in context with other indices, the Nasdaq weekly (COMP) has already recorded this week a TD Sell Setup @9 and a TD Combo Sell @13.

RUT - WeeklyThe weekly Russell 2000 (RUT) is a bit more of an anomaly. It has recorded an unperfected TD Sell Setup @9, which allows for one more higher high to consider the TD Sell Setup @9 as perfected. The one indicator shown on the weekly RUT chart that is preventing a hard sell off scenario is the TTM_Squeeze indicator. It is moving higher after a long base which favors higher prices ahead. If, by chance, there is a reversal in momentum, the RUT should see a drop below 1371.80, the level for the TDST Support. Above that level is considered part of a normal corrective process.

In an attempt to get more precise, if we drill down to the daily SPX timeframe, the SPX could see a TD Combo Sell @13 with another higher high and higher close print, which will meet the minimum for price exhaustion on the daily SPX. The timing for full price exhaustion is for next week sometime.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2569.13 on Monday, October 30, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2549.33 on Friday, November 3, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2423.41 on Tuesday, October 31, 2017


 

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