Monday, April 13, 2015

Just a quick update since very little has changed since last week’s charts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Deferring to the daily chart on the Short/Intermediate Outlook.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.29.15 AM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support or bullish if SPX closes above 2117.39 today.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.30.06 AMUnless the SPX closes in an extreme up or down day, it will be neutral to allow for emerging patterns.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2053.40 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2108.10 on Friday, April 17, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.34.07 AMThe weekly SPX is still coiling.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 


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Monday, April 6, 2015

With last Friday’s payroll numbers coming in with a miss, the equity markets should continue to see more volatility from the lack of clear clarity from the Fed. Expect more choppiness.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if the 4 hour SPX closes below 2046.74, the same as the daily chart.

Screen Shot 2015-04-03 at 9.11.13 PMThe lack of TD Sequential ‘paint’ on the charts indicates lack of momentum. For future guidance, we will defer to the daily chart.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2015-04-03 at 8.58.45 PMAt this point, the only considerations are for a bearish scenario or staying range bound.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2053.40 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2108.10 on Friday, April 10, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-04-03 at 8.24.45 PMThe window to further deterioration is open now that the TTM_Squeeze has been coiling for weeks. This could potentially produce a prolong rally or rapid selling once it breaks out of the defined range. The TTM_Squeeze indicator is a representation of the Keltner/Bollinger band relationship, which has been numerous times. Type in ‘Bollinger’ in the search field for additional examples.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-04-03 at 8.17.46 PMThe easy money is still being made as long as the monthly chart doesn’t record a bearish price flip.


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Monday, March 30, 2015

Quick Update: Market is twisting into another trading range. On the 4 hour S&P 500 (SPX) chart, there is almost completed TD Buy Setup. If officially recorded, another low print at/or below bar 5 ( 2045.50 ) will ‘perfect’ the count and the SPX will likely make another rally attempt. If instead, the SPX rallies above 2061.56 and makes a mid-day close above 2061.56, the TD Buy Setup is cancelled and the count resets itself with a bullish price flip, which essentially renders the SPX neutral. An end of the day close below 2039.69 keeps the bearish forces in motion. 2039.69 is the daily SPX TDST Support.Screen Shot 2015-03-29 at 9.29.47 PM


 

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Monday, March 23, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 8.45.14 PM Screen Shot 2015-03-22 at 8.41.12 PMCrude oil may see some stability – at least temporarily. The daily chart is showing a double bottom notated by a pair of 13’s and just recently, a completed TD Buy Setup @9. However any bounce may translate into a prolong sideways trading, before a resumption of the slide in prices. A look at the monthly comparison chart shows contains plenty of information. The first supports the daily chart’s bounce as the monthly crude chart has completed a 9 count TD Buy Setup. However, the TTM_Squeeze’s momentum component may not have bottomed when comparing crude’s epic drop back in 2008. The interpretation is that any bounce is just setting up for further downside. Also note in the monthly chart, the slide in oil has not affected the correlation between crude and emerging market equities.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the 4 hour SPX closes below 2089.57 today.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.14.01 PMThe signal for further upside has increased by the 2107.72 TDST Resistance upside breach.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2074.28 today. 

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.24.31 PMRetargeting the area where the 2117.39 TDST Resistance and the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor lies. Those  levels poses a nice resistance level for more sideways trading. Surpass them and a full 9 – 13 count TD Sequential would be expected.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Resume to bullish if SPX closes above 2104.50 on Friday, March 27, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.29.52 PMAlthough the weekly trend is still sloping positive, the caution sign is the lack of continuity in the counts since the recorded 13’s back in late 2014. Typically the absence of recorded TD Setups portend to sideways price action.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 on March 31, 2015. 


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Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Quick update: Fed day today and the daily S&P 500 (SPX) has completed an ‘unperfected’ TD Buy Setup @9. If the SPX closes above 2065.95, then the market is presumed to stay bullish. Close below 2046.74, the daily TDST support is bearish. A low print below TD Buy Setup bar 7 @ 2039.69, and subsequently closes above 2046.74, the SPX is considered neutral with a bullish bias.

Screen Shot 2015-03-17 at 9.16.10 PM

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Thursday, March 12, 2015

Quick update – The daily S&P 500 (SPX) took out its’ TDST Support level. Look for further selling through Friday, where a 9 count TD Buy Setup will be due.

Screen Shot 2015-03-11 at 8.49.22 PM


 

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Monday, March 9, 2015

Last Friday’s S&P 500 (SPX) rout was the result of the blowout jobs number, which suggests interest rate hikes may come sooner than later. This does present risks for volatility on a large scale (monthly SPX chart), but ultimately, interest rate adjustments are preferred than the continued expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Currently, the focus is on the 4 hour and daily SPX chart. The timeframes have TDST Support levels in close proximity of each other – 2057.99 and 2046.74. The most bullish scenario would be for the selloff on the 4 hour timeframe record a 9 count TD Buy Setup, just above 2057.99 TSDT Support Level. Continued selloff below the 4 hour TDST Support level will raise some questions about the continuity of the rally, as the 4 hour and daily SPX chart will have to reconcile the two TDST Support levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bullish if 4 hour SPX closes above 2101.23 today.

Screen Shot 2015-03-06 at 8.56.08 PMAs mentioned in the intro, the 4 hour SPX chart is the initial test of future direction. If the 4 hour SPX drops below the TDST Support level at 2057.99, that will be the first indication of further deterioration. Otherwise, another run to highs is expected.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74. Otherwise staying neutral.

Screen Shot 2015-03-08 at 8.57.44 PMThere are bull/bear battle lines notated at 2124.35 and the 2046.74 – 2057.99 range. In an effort to avoid whipsaws, any trading between this levels are neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2124.35 on March 13, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-03-06 at 8.58.33 PMWith bullish and bearish factor now equally weighed, neutral is the best stance.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 on March 31, 2015. 


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