Monday, September 26, 2016

With the Fed not willing to pull the trigger on rates, the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently heading towards to the top end of its range. If the SPX records another closing high, it will not be considered as a breakout, but rather, potentials for reversals as some TD Setups are waiting for completion.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2097.90 on any day during the week.

screen-shot-2016-09-23-at-9-05-35-pmIf the active TD Sell Setup @5 continues, a 9 count could occur on Thursday, September 30, which will cap off a price exhaustion marker for the daily. This could also coincide with a weekly TD Buy Setup @13. All these price exhaustion signals are collaborating that the rally will run out of steam, and we should see equities test some support levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

screen-shot-2016-09-23-at-8-54-04-pmDespite the rally, the weekly TD Buy Setup is still intact @5. If the rally continues, a TD Sell Countdown @13 will be recorded if the week closes at or above 2163.30. Such an occurrence would commence a more cautious outlook.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 30, 2016. 


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Monday, September 19, 2016

A little more clarity should come when the Federal Reserve Board meets this week with a policy announcement scheduled on Wednesday, September 21, 2016. Although the announcement itself may not be spectacular, the following press conference will probably be the real source of the Fed’s intentions. Given that, the two charts of interest are the CBOE 10 Year Treasury Index (TNX) and the US Dollar Index (DXY). Both are near their respective TDST Resistance levels and breakouts above them will likely spurt a new sustainable rally. For the TNX, that breakout level is 17.39 or 1.739%, which is the equivalent level using the 10 Year Treasury. For the DXY, the breakout level is 96.129. screen-shot-2016-09-18-at-7-35-36-pm screen-shot-2016-09-18-at-7-46-37-pm

For equities, the levels for the S&P 500 (SPX) are shown below. The likely scenario is the SPX holds until the Fed meeting, and if the subsequent move is higher, it is free to complete the last 13 count for the weekly SPX before consolidating again. If the move is lower after the Fed meeting, then observe the behavior around the drawn TDST Support levels. A break under those levels are likely to power more selling.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2089.39 on any closing bar this week. 

screen-shot-2016-09-16-at-8-38-28-pmStill cannot rule out another lower low before settling higher. However if the lower low extends and closes below 2089.39, the bearish outlook becomes real.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2097.90 on any day during the week.

screen-shot-2016-09-09-at-8-12-47-pmThe 2097.90 TDST Support level still matters. A close below that significantly enhances additional selling.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 23, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-09-16-at-8-17-20-pmSame as last week, a weekly close below the monthly SPX bearish price flip will signal weakness going forward.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 30, 2016. 


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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: As it stands now, the 4 hour timeframe of the S&P 500 (SPX) is signaling more churning ahead. As of the close of September 13, 2016, the active TD Buy Setup @8 is unperfected, meaning any lower low print today will be bought up since TD Buy Setup will record a 9 count above the 2089.39 TDST Support level. One caveat to that is if any buying in the SPX is short lived, and instead sells off into the close below the daily SPX 2097.90 TDST Support level today, then the bears will still be in control. screen-shot-2016-09-13-at-8-31-47-pm


 

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Monday, September 12, 2016

Last Friday’s trading action generated an almost 2.5% drop in the S&P 500 (SPX), and drops of that magnitude requires further evaluation. As it stands currently, there are clusters of TDST Support between 2089.39 to 2097.90. A break below those lines of support should validate a bear trend at least on the daily SPX. To see how this might happen, timeframe continuation will provide the best guidance. We’ll start with the 4 hour SPX, then the daily, and finish with the weekly. Details are below:

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2149.72 mid day or 2128.21 end of day on Tuesday, September 13, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-09-09-at-8-46-29-pmIn addition to the levels above, if the current 4 hour TD Buy Setup cannot close below the 2089.39 TDST Support level before recording TD Buy Setup @9, then a counter trend reversal is in the cards.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2097.90 on Monday, September 6, 2016.

screen-shot-2016-09-09-at-8-12-47-pmThe TDST Support at 2097.90 holds the most weight of all the timeframes. Basically any close below that level serves as a warning going forward.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 16, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-09-10-at-9-35-24-pmAlthough we are still open for a 13 count TD Sell Countdown or TD Combo Sell, the major concern is if the weekly SPX closes below 2096.96, the monthly bearish price flip. Achieve that, and it will become apparent volatility will continue to persist.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 30, 2016. 


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Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Although the Fed desires to raise rates in their upcoming meeting, the data coming through is too conflicted to provide such a move. While the 30 day Fed Funds futures are pricing in about a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, the analysis from a TD viewpoint for the 10 year Treasuries and the US Dollar Index are not supporting such a move yet. However, that can all change if they trade above certain key levels between now and the September 21st meeting. Consider first the CBOE 10 year Treasury Index (TNX). It is currently bouncing off the lows, but until it breaks out above 1.739% or 17.39 TDST Resistance Level, rates should remain choppy or even head for one more lower low where we could see a major bottom in interest rates. Screen Shot 2016-09-04 at 9.20.29 PM

For the UD Dollar Index (DXY, a TD Sell Setup is in the works for the DXY. If it can consistently trade above the 96.129 TDST Resistance Level, that will suggest the US Dollar is in escape velocity mode. With TD Sell Setup @8, and bumping under the TDST level, it is probable it will fail. Screen Shot 2016-09-04 at 10.15.27 PM

Now for something a bit more actionable. If the Fed remains fractured, expect the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) to continue higher if the active TD Sell Setup can maintain the count, and break out above the TDST Resistance Level at 128.22. With a solid gap after completing a TD Buy Setup @9, the chances that GLD can break above the TDST level looks good. Screen Shot 2016-09-05 at 8.21.32 PM

For equity markets, there are no significant updates as the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) is still wavering. Once again, although equity markets are free to trade lower, there is room for another higher high. Details below.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2168.50 on Tuesday, September 6, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-09-05 at 8.31.15 PMEven though a 13 can be printed and aligned with the weekly, it is doing so under the context of a tight trading trade. Therefore any recorded TD Sell Countdown @13 won’t have much significance.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 9.08.34 PMThis is still the primary timeframe we are focused on. Both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell are still on the 12 count. Similar to last week, both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell can record simultaneous 13’s if the week closes with a print higher than 2184.05 and a high equal to 2193.81 or higher. If successful, it will be tougher for the market to push higher.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2096.96 on Friday, September 30, 2016. 

Screen Shot 2016-09-02 at 8.45.38 PMThe monthly SPX continues to roll despite the minor red candle last month. Any potential signs of trouble will be forewarned when a bearish price flip is recorded, similar to what happened on June 2015.


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Monday, August 29, 2016

The S&P 500 (SPX) did not meet the criteria for the 9/13/13 trifecta last week. In fact the weekly drop was deep enough to cancel the TD Sell Setup. This leaves TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell, which their respective 13’s are deferred until their objective rules are met. In addition to the SPX, which we will get to below, the Nasdaq indices and the RUT are also aligned to meet price exhaustion on the weekly charts.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 10.15.10 PMFrom the Nasdaq (COMPQ) weekly chart, TD Sell Setup has recorded a ‘perfected’ count, meaning the recorded 8 count could be the true high of the entire TD Sell Setup sequence of counts 1 through 9. As long as this week’s COMPQ closing bar is above 5221.12, the market is free to sell off. Note that if the closing bar is 5221.12 or below this week, the COMPQ is still free to sell off but won’t be defined by any TD counts, and observing TD Counts of related indices would practically be mandatory.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 10.33.05 PMFrom then small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index, the first of three price exhaustion signals has been recorded. TD Combo Sell @13 was recorded on Friday, July 29, 2016, which provides the first mark where a selloff may commence. The other two signals, TD Sell Setup and TD Sell Countdown are one count away from achieving a respective 9 and 13 price exhaustion point.

If the SPX, COMPQ and the RUT can produce another high this week, we can officially begin the consolidation process, which can be long and drawn out until the November elections. More on that next week when the August month closes in a few days.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2168.50 on Monday, August 29, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 7.32.04 PMIt’s the same level as last week. The August 17th low print of 2168.50 is used to define as the level to switch to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 7.37.18 PMNeutral since it is not worth looking at the long side with TD Counts just one count away from 13’s and it would be too early to tell if any selloff would be the beginning of a bear trend.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2065.03 on Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 


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Monday, August 22, 2016

The next bout of volatility is coming, and as indicated by the S&P 500 (SPX) TD counts, the SPX just needs to orchestrate one more rally to begin the consolidation process. Other related indices are also mirroring the SPX, and we’ll make note of any significant charts when the time comes.  The details for the SPX are outlined below.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2168.50 on Monday, August 22, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 9.10.46 PMSince it is anticipated for the SPX to slug higher with alternating price flips, Wednesday’s August 17th low of 2168.50 is chosen as the price level to switch to neutral to alleviate over trading.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2173.60 on Friday, August 26, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 8.48.17 PMAs long as the weekly closes above 2173.60 this Friday, the first of three price exhaustion signals will be recorded. A trifecta of the TD Sell Setup @9, TD Sell Countdown @13, and TD Combo Sell @13 can occur if the weekly SPX closes at or above 2184.05, and a recorded weekly high of 2193.81 or above.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2065.03 on Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 


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