Monday, November 28, 2016

The close of the week for the S&P 500 (SPX) has made a case for a reversal and a case for continued upward momentum. The reversal case has been made with the SPX closing price price tagging the TD Trend Factor at 2213.15. The weekly SPX also recorded the long awaited TD Combo Sell @13. On the flip side, the daily SPX still has an unbroken TD Sell Setup @9 + 5, the weekly SPX has a probable 9-13-9 count, and the monthly has another 1-2 months to go before recording a high with either a TD Sell Setup @8 or @9. Taken in conjunction, expect a pullback this week, but not enough to derail the rally. The best case for a high, then reversal now rests in late December/early January when the weekly SPX TD Sell Setup converge with the monthly SPX TD Sell Setup to complete a 9 count on both timeframes. Furthermore, a followup article on DeMark’s call also has him revising the duration of this current rally to end of December. The followup article is here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tom-demark-now-sees-5-6-retreat-for-stock-market-in-wake-of-trump-rally-2016-11-22


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2198.18 on Monday, November 28, 2016. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2164.45 (December 9, 2016 price flip) on Friday, December 2, 2016. 

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Wednesday, November 23, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) has an unbroken TD Sell Setup @ 9 + 3. This is a testament to strong momentum. The first stop is the 2213.15 TD Trend Factor, which will be reviewed when it gets there.

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Monday, November 21, 2016

Going back to previous post on Tom DeMark’s S&P 500 (SPX) forecast, the call was for the SPX to hit 2213.15 by last Wednesday, November 16, 2016. The source of that level would be a 2nd degree TD Trend Factor. It’s not entirely clear on why he chose Wednesday as a high other than it would have been a TD Sell Setup @8, which would have ‘perfected’ the count. However, it would have been just as well to say ‘Wednesday or Thursday’. 

Nevertheless, the daily SPX has a qualified TD Sell Setup @ 9 on Thursday, but far short of his 2213.15 target. However, the 2213.15 TD Trend Factor is still viable. It may just take a different path. Also the weekly SPX closed just shy of recording a TD Combo Sell @ 13. It could do this week, but the active weekly TD Sell Setup @ 2 has solid momentum. It would not be surprising to see the weekly TD Sell Setup push to a 9 count. If the SPX does not respect the 2213.15 level, the next TD Trend Factor higher will be 2323.89. But let’s take this one step at a time as the window for a reversal has just begun. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2180.39 on Monday, November 21, 2016. 

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There is a risk of alternating price flips higher, but the greater risk is to the downside.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2126.41on Friday, November 25, 2016. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2173.60 on Wednesday, November 30, 2016. 

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Monday, November 14, 2016.

There will not be any updates due to time constraints, but I leave you with this courtesy of a reader,

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-wake-of-trump-rally-tom-demark-calls-for-11-stock-market-decline-2016-11-11?siteid=yhoof2

It appears DeMark is looking for the top, then failure. That viewpoint is shared by this blog utilizing many of his tools. If we get to that point, I hope to get some charts up by then.


 

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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: A powerful rally off the TD Buy Setup @9 sets up the S&P 500 (SPX) to break through the 2151.44 TDST Resistance level. If achieved, then a new all time high should be recorded. If that scenario plays out, then the SPX will record two price exhaustion markers – One on the weekly chart with a TD Buy Combo @13, and on the monthly chart with a perfected TD Sell Setup @8. This will suggest a breakout to new highs, then failure. We will try to track the steps as this has been weeks in the making. Of course, if the SPX fails to record a qualified break through 2151.44, then everything is wide open on the bearish side.


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Monday, November 7, 2016

More clarity will come to the markets this week as the presidential election results should come this Tuesday. Currently, the overall market scenario has a bearish tilt. The S&P 500’s (SPX) daily chart exemplifies this with the back to back drop below the 2097.90 TDST Support level. However, the recorded daily TD Buy Setup @9 tells us a bounce is due and at least temporarily trade above 2097.90. If the bounce looks more like a bullish reversal, the SPX must eventually break through the 2151.44 TDST Resistance level. If the SPX continues to trade below 2097.90, then the weekly SPX chart suggests a a more meaningful bounce can occur a month from now.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Continued to opt out to Neutral until further notice. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2085.18 (previous week close) on Friday, November 11, 2016. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2173.60 on Wednesday, November 30, 2016. 


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Wednesday, November 2, 2016

The low of the S&P 500 (SPX) touched the daily 2097.90 TDST Support. However, the odds of the market unraveling are not that great given the current TD Buy Setup @6 is nearing completion near the TDST level. If a TD Buy Setup @9 is recorded, and the SPX straddles the 2097.90 TDST Support level in the days ahead of the recorded @9, then the propensity of breakdown remains. Until then, the possibility of a rally to new highs can occur, but it needs to do so this month to keep the monthly TD Sell Setup momentum going. The minimum monthly close needs to 2173.60.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2173.60 on Wednesday, November 30, 2016. 

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