Monday, March 23, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 8.45.14 PM Screen Shot 2015-03-22 at 8.41.12 PMCrude oil may see some stability – at least temporarily. The daily chart is showing a double bottom notated by a pair of 13’s and just recently, a completed TD Buy Setup @9. However any bounce may translate into a prolong sideways trading, before a resumption of the slide in prices. A look at the monthly comparison chart shows contains plenty of information. The first supports the daily chart’s bounce as the monthly crude chart has completed a 9 count TD Buy Setup. However, the TTM_Squeeze’s momentum component may not have bottomed when comparing crude’s epic drop back in 2008. The interpretation is that any bounce is just setting up for further downside. Also note in the monthly chart, the slide in oil has not affected the correlation between crude and emerging market equities.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the 4 hour SPX closes below 2089.57 today.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.14.01 PMThe signal for further upside has increased by the 2107.72 TDST Resistance upside breach.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2074.28 today. 

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.24.31 PMRetargeting the area where the 2117.39 TDST Resistance and the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor lies. Those  levels poses a nice resistance level for more sideways trading. Surpass them and a full 9 – 13 count TD Sequential would be expected.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Resume to bullish if SPX closes above 2104.50 on Friday, March 27, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.29.52 PMAlthough the weekly trend is still sloping positive, the caution sign is the lack of continuity in the counts since the recorded 13’s back in late 2014. Typically the absence of recorded TD Setups portend to sideways price action.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 on March 31, 2015. 


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Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Quick update: Fed day today and the daily S&P 500 (SPX) has completed an ‘unperfected’ TD Buy Setup @9. If the SPX closes above 2065.95, then the market is presumed to stay bullish. Close below 2046.74, the daily TDST support is bearish. A low print below TD Buy Setup bar 7 @ 2039.69, and subsequently closes above 2046.74, the SPX is considered neutral with a bullish bias.

Screen Shot 2015-03-17 at 9.16.10 PM

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Thursday, March 12, 2015

Quick update – The daily S&P 500 (SPX) took out its’ TDST Support level. Look for further selling through Friday, where a 9 count TD Buy Setup will be due.

Screen Shot 2015-03-11 at 8.49.22 PM


 

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Monday, March 9, 2015

Last Friday’s S&P 500 (SPX) rout was the result of the blowout jobs number, which suggests interest rate hikes may come sooner than later. This does present risks for volatility on a large scale (monthly SPX chart), but ultimately, interest rate adjustments are preferred than the continued expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. Currently, the focus is on the 4 hour and daily SPX chart. The timeframes have TDST Support levels in close proximity of each other – 2057.99 and 2046.74. The most bullish scenario would be for the selloff on the 4 hour timeframe record a 9 count TD Buy Setup, just above 2057.99 TSDT Support Level. Continued selloff below the 4 hour TDST Support level will raise some questions about the continuity of the rally, as the 4 hour and daily SPX chart will have to reconcile the two TDST Support levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bullish if 4 hour SPX closes above 2101.23 today.

Screen Shot 2015-03-06 at 8.56.08 PMAs mentioned in the intro, the 4 hour SPX chart is the initial test of future direction. If the 4 hour SPX drops below the TDST Support level at 2057.99, that will be the first indication of further deterioration. Otherwise, another run to highs is expected.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74. Otherwise staying neutral.

Screen Shot 2015-03-08 at 8.57.44 PMThere are bull/bear battle lines notated at 2124.35 and the 2046.74 – 2057.99 range. In an effort to avoid whipsaws, any trading between this levels are neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2124.35 on March 13, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-03-06 at 8.58.33 PMWith bullish and bearish factor now equally weighed, neutral is the best stance.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 on March 31, 2015. 


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Monday, March 2, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.14.05 PMA major shift is occurring in the currency market. With global central banks loosening monetary policy, their currencies are being weakened as a result and the US Dollar has turned higher. This trend will likely continue as global players are pressured to buy dollars. The technical picture also supports the fundamentals. Now that the US Dollar basket index (DXY) monthly chart has decisively broken out, the conclusion of February ended with a 9 count TD Sell Setup. Given the long sideways trading action (note the TTM_Squeeze), there is high probability TD Sell Countdown will ensue.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bullish if 4 hour SPX closes above 2110.77 today.

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 11.41.00 PMWith the short term SPX exhibiting a minor selloff, eventually, there is likely to be more upside to fulfill the TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell counts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch back to neutral if daily SPX closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor.

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.11.17 PMThe daily SPX completed a 9 count TD Sell Setup and the high came within’ 5 points from reaching the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor. The trend is still bullish, and any selloff will likely be contained. However, complacency can be harmful, which is why the current outlook is neutral, based off the bearish price flip of the most recent data point.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2055.47 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2110.30 on March 6, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.26.55 PMThe weekly SPX is still on track for a TD Sequential 9-13-9 count. Although technically it violates the rules since the bullish price flip occurred before the 13 count of the finished TD Sell Countdown, the positive factors currently outweigh the negative.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 by March 31, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.46.58 PMDespite coming close to flipping neutral the last two months, the monthly SPX keeps the seemingly infinite TD Sell counts going.


 

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Monday, February 23, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 10.28.03 PM Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 10.37.41 PMThe power of the Keltner/Bollinger relationship as represented by the TTM_Squeeze indicator has been emphasized many times over. The most recent was oil and another one is setting up on the gold chart. Utilizing the GLD ETF as a proxy for gold, the horizontal dots on the TTM_Squeeze are currently red, stating gold is now coiling for a volatility move. At this point, the stage is set for a major bullish run, as both the daily and monthly charts are holding above their respective TDST Support levels. If that projection is incorrect, GLD should first selloff below 114.08 on the daily chart, and if 108.95 is violated on the monthly, that will be the first major confirmation, gold is about to take a major leg lower. Bear in mind, this scenario could months to play out.

On the equity markets, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX), the spotlight is now on the daily chart as it approaches a completed TD Sell Setup @9 today.  The weekly now has a bullish and bearish option.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2097.50.

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.28.06 PMThe 4 hour SPX is in TD Sell Countdown mode. Look at the daily SPX chart for better clues of what is ahead.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 2097.50, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.33.34 PMNow with the TD Sell Setup closing in on a 9 count, just under the TD Trend Factor at 2124.35, a selloff of some magnitude is expected. Not much is expected as the sideways trading action since early December may not have played out in it’s entirety.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 1994.99 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2110.30 on February 27, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.50.48 PMA renewed bullish outlook is set. By simply following the TD Sell Setup, the motion is set for continued upward momentum. But utilizing some timeframe continuity, the bearish outlook has not gone away, as the weekly SPX is dependent on the daily SPX chart. The daily SPX is excepted to reach upside price exhaustion via the TD Sell Setup @9. If the daily selloff is significant enough to erase the gains of last week’s weekly SPX close of 2096.99, the bearish option gains a notch.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX cannot close above 2018.05 by February 27, 2015. 


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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Quick update: Despite the noise in Greece and the Ukraine, the odds are favoring higher prices for the S&P 500 (SPX)


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2096.76.

Screen Shot 2015-02-17 at 9.12.34 PMWith a recorded TD Sell Setup @9 on the 4 hour SPX chart, a new TDST Support reference point is notated at 2057.99.


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