Monday, September 24, 2018

The S&P 500 (SPX) went to a bullish reset with last Tuesday’s trading action. From the two hour SPX chart, it was not convincing, but the SPX traded and held above the 2906.32 TDST Resistance level, engaging in a fresh breakout. Currently, the run-up has both the daily and the four hour charts in sync for price exhaustion for Monday’s trading session. Both charts show TD Sell Setups @ 8, and the markets are free to reverse anytime. Keep in mind the SPX has to push extra hard lower to materially damage the SPX. Minor pullbacks have been the universal theme for quite awhile.

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S&P 500 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if SPX closes below 2931.06 at the close of Monday, September 24, 2018

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S&P 500 SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2904.31 at the close of Monday, September 24, 2018

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2901.52 at the close of Friday, September 28, 2018

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, September 17, 2018

The primary chart to start Monday is the four-hour S&P 500 (SPX). It’s currently pressing against the 2906.32 TDST Resistance level. Current count is TD Sell Setup @8. To achieve full short term price exhaustion, it would require the SPX to record a trade at 2908.30 or higher. The most obvious observation would see a Monday morning pop and fade. The overall environment will stay somewhat bullish as long as the daily SPX keeps the TD Sell Setup active. Overall, equities continue to look disorganized.

There are some calls to overweight emerging markets. A look at the iShares Emerging Market ETF (EEM) on the monthly chart shows momentum is still on the downside. If momentum continues lower, a recorded TD Buy Setup above the 37.26 TDST Support level can signal the timing of a reversal higher. Notably, a TD By Setup @8 or @9 is on track to occur right around the November mid-terms.

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S&P 500 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if SPX closes below 2903.52 at the close of Monday, September 17, 2018

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S&P 500 SHORT/INTERMEDIATE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes 2887.89 at the close of Monday, September 17, 2018

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2874.60 at the close of Friday, September 21, 2018

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, September 10, 2018

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) recorded a series of minor lower closes last week. Since the selloff has recorded a 9 count on the SPX four hour chart right above the 2856.86 TDST Support level, the SPX is expected to produce a rally. The four hour QQQ chart shows a similar pattern with TD Buy Setup recording a 9 count above the TDST Support at 180.65. If any rally is muted and trades under the SPX TDST Resistance at 2906.32 (186.73 on the QQQ), then the larger picture remain in favor of the bears.

If there is a persistent selloff and the daily SPX keeps the TD Buy Setup active until it records a 9 count, another rally attempt may come late in the week if the 9 count is recorded above 2831.44.

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Tuesday, September 4, 2018

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) recorded the third price exhaustion level with a TD Sell Setup @9 last Tuesday, August 29, 2018. Tying in the four-hour SPX chart recording a TD Sell Setup @9, the weekly SPX one week away from recording a TD Sell Setup @9, the probability pendulum is still on the side of the bears. A revaluation will come if the daily SPX closes above the TD risk level at 2914.04.

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S&P 500 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX surpasses the 2916.50 TDST Resistance (60 min)

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S&P 500 SHORT/INTERMEDIATE  TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2901.52 on Tuesday, September 4, 2018

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2833.28 on Friday, September 7, 2018

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, August 27 2018

The last set of TD price exhaustion signals will come this week. Keeping in mind key TD Sell Setup reversals usually occur at the eight or nine count, a TD Sell Setup can record a nine count on Tuesday’s close for the daily, and this will coincide with the weekly chart which will likely record an eight count on its respective TD Sell Setup.

There is also agreement with the Invesco ETF (QQQ). There is a good chance the weekly QQQ can record a TD Sell Setup @9 this week. Furthermore, if the daily QQQ closes above the previous high of 182.82, the daily QQQ can record a TD Combo Sell @13.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL 

Bearish if SPX closes below 2856.86 at the close of Monday, August 27, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2856.86 at the close of Monday, August 27, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2840.35 at the close of Friday, August 31, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, August 20, 2018

Since the last significant bout of volatility during the first quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 (SPX) has been able to grind upwards, and closing in to all time highs. It is natural to see hesitation when prices revisit their previous highs. We are at that point now, and the TD indicators are currently showing price exhaustion. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart has recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13, which is the first of three price exhaustion signals. It can record a TD Combo Sell @13 (less strict version) if the SPX closes above the recent closing high at 2858.45. The third is TD Sell Setup which can potentially record a 9 count early next week. The market has already demonstrated SPX 2800 level is where buyers step in. From a DeMark perspective, the TDST Support level at 2796.34 in relation to its TD Buy Setup on the four-hour SPX timeframe holds the key to determine if 2800 will hold again. Above 2800, the SPX should remain fragmented and choppy.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2840.64 at the close of Monday, August 20, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2839.96 at the close of Monday, August 20, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2818.82 at the close of Friday, August 24, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, August 13, 2018

The S&P 500 (SPX) sold off last Friday coinciding nearly with short term TD indicators (two-hour, four-hour SPX) showing price exhaustion. The daily SPX missed recording a TD Sell Countdown by one trading day.

Using the two-hour SPX chart, buying fatigue is evident in hindsight with prices contained under the SPX two-hour Risk Level at 2861.22. Staying in context with the SPX close on Friday, here are next week’s levels and their suggested implications. 1> Trading above the 15min SPX 2839.43 TDST Resistance Level early in Monday’s session will signal the SPX will stay directionless. 2> Trading near and above the 2811.79 TDST Support Level at the end of Monday’s session will suggest a bounce is near. Trading under 2811.79 will provide warning the selloff may continue, and longer term sentiment may change if the SPX four-hour TDST Support Level at 2796.34 is breached lower.

Global currency issues are now headlines, and this is impacting the already fragile emerging markets. If perceptions about global imbalances will not be resolved anytime soon, volatility should return to US equity prices. Per the weekly US Dollar currency basket (DXY), momentum has reasserted itself and TD Sequential shows it is in TD Sell Countdown mode. If momentum gaining strength, the recent highs at the 103 area looks probable. For reference, the monthly DXY is on an active TD Sell Setup @4.

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S&P 500 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2811.79 mid-day, Monday, August 13, 2018

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S&P 500 SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2858.45 at the close of Monday, August 13, 2018

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2801.83 at the close Friday, August 17, 2018

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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