Monday, June 19, 2017

The real story is pointing to the Nasdaq (COMP). The weakness has been subtle. Even if the daily Nasdaq drops below the 6121.29 TDST Support level, it may be short lived as the daily TD Buy Setup is currently on count 6. This will set up a rally if the Nasdaq TD Buy Setup records a 9 count around the 6121.29 level. However, if a rally does come, it is going against the weekly Nasdaq price exhaustion levels, which recorded a TD Sell Setup @9 last week. As a result, the best bull case for the Nasdaq is a long duration digestion or consolidation period. The best bear case is for any rally to fizzle and trade below 6121.29. Such a Nasdaq selloff coupled with a S&P 500 (SPX) selloff below the SPX 2398.42 TDST Support level, should indicate more damage ahead.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2440.35 on the close of Monday, June 19, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2415.82 on Friday, June 23, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2363.64 on Friday, June 30, 2017

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Monday, June 12, 2017

The price exhaustion signals that have been in place the last few weeks gave way to the first casualty through the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which suffered a 1.80% drop. Curiously, the Nasdaq selloff did not inspire the same drop in prices for the S&P 500 (SPX), which is also showing price exhaustion signals on the daily and weekly charts. Moving forward, there are high expectations for the SPX to follow the Nasdaq’s lead given these signals. Another index to key on is the Russell 2000 (RUT), which actually closed higher last Friday. Unfortunately, this may not last as the RUT can record its own price exhaustion signals with TD Sell Setup @8 on Monday’s close, and TD Sell Setup @9 on Tuesday’s close. A plausible counter argument is the RUT is breaking out as money is simply rotating from tech to the small caps. This looks more apparent on the weekly chart in which the weekly TTM_Squeeze indicator is currently favoring more upside. Circling back to the Nasdaq, if the big down day last Friday is the first order, the second order is to see the Nasdaq break below the daily TDST Support level at 6121.79. The QQQ equivalent is 138.78. Achieve that, then we would be more convinced of a broader selloff.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2439.07 on the close of Monday, June 12, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2381.73 on Friday, June 16, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2363.64 on Friday, June 30, 2017

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Monday, June 5, 2017

Now that the S&P 500 (SPX) has traded to new highs, the consensus is for more even more highs. However, the sticking point is that the SPX is pressing at price exhaustion levels on both the daily and weekly levels starting from last week and continuing this week. The designated target derived from the TD Trend Factor at 2432.98 has been overshot, but not enough to deter the overall picture that the market is vulnerable to a pullback considering the daily TD Sell Setup can record a 9 at the close of Monday. The longer term picture from the monthly perspective still shows strong momentum now in its 15th month.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2412.91 on the close of Monday, June 5, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2390.90 on Friday, June 9, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2363.64 on Friday, June 30, 2017

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Tuesday, May 30, 2017

The window for a selloff starts this week as the weekly S&P 500 (SPX) has recorded the first of three price exhaustion signals with a TD Combo Sell @13. Furthermore, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) collaborates with the SPX with both the daily and weekly charts recording a TD Sell Countdown @13 and a TD Combo @13. If the SPX continues upward, the 2432.98 TD Trend Factor is still a viable target.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2398.42 on the close of Tuesday, May 30, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2399.29 on Friday, June 2, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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Monday, May 22, 2017

Despite the solid selloff last Wednesday, May 17, 2017, a follow-through selloff never materialized. However the S&P 500 (SPX) recent low of 2352.72 should be retested. If that test comes along with a breach of the Russell 2000 (RUT) TDST Support at 1349.43, that should signal trouble for the bullish structure. If it turns out the SPX 2352.72 was a low and ends up making new highs, full price exhaustion counts on the weekly SPX can be realized in a minimum of two weeks from now. A weekly SPX TD Sell Setup @13 right at the 2432.98 TD Trend Factor target would raise the probability of a more significant reversal.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if four hour SPX closes below 2365.44 on Monday, May 22, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2365.44 on the close of Monday, May 22, 2017 or 2357.03 on Tuesday, May 23. 2017
OR Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2400.67 on Monday, May 22, 2017.

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2384.20 on Friday, May 26, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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Monday, May 15, 2017

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week weaker, but it’s resolving in a tight range which sets up for another bullish spurt. However, the TD counts are maturing on the daily and the weekly SPX. The TD Trend Factor at 2432.98 still remains a viable target in 2-3 weeks. Looking at the related daily indices, Russell 2000 (RUT) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), they also both support the SPX. The RUT’s TDST Support at 1349.43 remains as a solid line of price support. The COMP is undisputedly bullish, and the weekly chart (not shown) nearly coincides with the weekly SPX for price exhaustion in a few weeks. If the SPX begins to probe below 2348.69 (weekly SPX price flip) this week, a different stance will be taken.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if four hour SPX closes below 2383.89 or bullish if four hour SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2348.69 on Friday, May 19, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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Monday, May 8, 2017

The price exhaustion signals for the S&P 500 (SPX) are starting to become clearer, From the daily SPX chart, TD Sell Setup is a hand’s reach away from the TD Trend Factor at 2432.98. This could possibly coincide with another price exhaustion signal through TD Combo Sell which is just two counts away from a 13. Pair this up with the weekly SPX which is one count away from a TD Combo Sell @13 and two counts away from a TD Sell Countdown @13. If everything unfolds as projected, set the sights on reversal signs.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2391.17 on Monday, May 8, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2348.69 on Friday, May 12, 2017

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

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