Friday, May 22, 2015

Blog is offline until July.

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Monday, May 11, 2015

Quick Update: Last Friday’s jobs number was bullish for the equity markets, but not good enough to change the neutral status. All the bullish and bearish levels remain the same. Bullish if the S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor and bearish with a close below 2046.74. The weekly SPX is still coiling. Screen Shot 2015-05-09 at 11.34.19 PM


 

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Monday, May 4, 2015

Post FOMC announcement last week, the US Dollar basket (DXY) sold off significantly. The question is: Has the dollar topped. The visual evidence is the dollar is simply retracing an overdone rally, and will eventually strengthen again. The recent economic releases has collaborated the retracement, as an imminent hike in interest rates is now uncertain. The upcoming jobs number this Friday will make a contribution to that uncertainty. Utilizing DeMark tools and timeframe continuity, there is room to go higher. But there are levels to observe if the Dixie is to retrace much more than expected. Here is the analysis…Screen Shot 2015-05-01 at 8.53.48 PMDAILY CHART: The downward momentum is nearing the end before the next phase begins. Using the 94.059 TDST Support as a key support, a recorded 9 count TD Buy Setup above that level will signal the dollar will make an attempt to challenge the highs again. If the DXY rally is weak and subsequently closes below 94.059, then a bearish view is taken. Now if the DXY closes below the TDST Support level prior to recording a TD Buy Setup @9, that will signal either more choppy price action or secondarily, bearish action. Screen Shot 2015-05-03 at 8.42.21 PMWEEKLY: Looking at this chart, the DXY is simply retracing the overtly bullish trend. Using the current TD Buy Setup as a guide, the current count is at 6, which indicates the DXY may hit a low in 3-4 weeks. Screen Shot 2015-05-01 at 9.10.00 PMMONTHLY: This is the big picture and the recent bearish engulfing candle has halted the rally. If the last trading day in May is 94.846 or below, this signals the DXY has topped out, as it waits for global events to play out.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2093.72 at session midpoint or 2085.66 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2015-05-01 at 8.13.24 PMA bona-fide 9 count TD Buy Setup has been recorded for the first time since the beginning of March. While the choppy action can easily continue, follow the price flips – for those inclined to be involved in a trade. The 2117.39 – 2125.92 is the resistance zone.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor.

Screen Shot 2015-05-01 at 8.21.38 PMA reiteration of last week’s post – A clean close above 2124.35, will provide space for bullish momentum.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2102.06 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2124.35 (TD Trend Factor) on Friday, May 8, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-05-03 at 8.48.14 PMThe TTM_Squeeze is displaying continued churning action.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 1994.99 on May 29, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-05-01 at 8.32.11 PM34 straight months without a bearish price flip. Enough said.


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Monday, April 27, 2015

There is a FOMC meeting on tap this Wednesday. Economic reports have been soft lately, and the Fed may lean towards to dovish side, which will be supportive of stocks. The bearish thought is losing momentum, as the weekly S&P 500 is looking like the beginning of a full on breakout.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2118.53 at session midpoint or 2113.06 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.17.06 PMOn the short term SPX chart, the TD Sell Setup closed at bar 8, with the 2119.98 high less than bar 7’s 2120.92 high, making the TD Sell Setup unperfected. The expectation going forward is for another new high print to ‘perfect’ the count. What happens after this can help prognosticate longer time frames. Any retracement (closing bar) above the prior TD Resistance at 2107.72 is considered bullish. Trading above 2117.39, the daily TDST Resistance is considered super bullish.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor.

Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.23.04 PMAlthough there are two heavy resistance points to overcome (2117.39 and 2124.35), the daily is leaning towards the bullish end.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2066.96 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2124.35 (TD Trend Factor) on Friday, May 1, 2015.Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.43.55 PMBy viewing the weekly chart, the new closing high is providing the look of a new breakout. With the vertical momentum bars on the TTM_Squeeze turning higher, the probability of a breakout with a completed TD Sell Setup is high.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 


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Wednesday, April 22, 2015

A quick update. The trade setup is positioned for the bearish side, but the S&P 500 (SPX) is closer to breaking out than selling off.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2100.27.

Screen Shot 2015-04-21 at 7.26.21 PMConsideration for the bullish side if there is a close above the TDST Resistance level at 2107.72.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2015-04-21 at 7.29.37 PMNot much is changed here – just wild whipsaw trading.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2061.02 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2119.59 (all-time high) on Friday, April 24, 2015.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 


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Monday, April 20, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-04-19 at 8.50.11 PM Screen Shot 2015-04-19 at 8.52.05 PMTo help determine direction for the S&P 500 (SPX), which has been mired rangebound for weeks, the Nasdaq (COMPQ) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) weekly charts offer additional help. The Nasdaq is locked in a neutral position. It completed a TD Combo Sell @13 back on November 21, 2014, which it followed up with a sideways correction of 11 weeks. When the TD Sell Countdown recorded a ’13” back on February 20, 2015, another sideways correction is currently in it’s 8th week. If Nasdaq closes below 4891.22 at the end of the week, there is a high possibility the sideways action is doing a trend shift lower. For the Russell 2000, the RUT completed a 9 count TD Sell Setup, and with the most recent bar recording a bearish price flip, the upward momentum is officially finished. If the Russell closes under 1240.41 this week, expect the RUT to challenge the TDST Support at 1153.79. If both of these indices breach their respective weekly levels, this should provide additional confirmation that SPX is turning bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2105.22.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.29.15 AMThe TDST Resistance at 2107.72 has proven to be a resistance barrier for higher prices. The downside is wide open right down to the daily TDST Support at 2046.74.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.30.06 AMThe parameter for a bullish signal is pushed aside for the meantime. Since the battle is rangebound, for the aggressive trader that doesn’t mind risking multiple trade turnover, just follow the bullish or bearish price flips.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2061.02 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2119.59 (all-time high) on Friday, April 24, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.34.07 AMThe weekly SPX is still poised for a significant increase or decrease. The longer the TTM_Squeeze indicator stays red, it increases the chances for a signifiant rally or selloff. If the indicator spreads to the monthly chart, a bear market is in the cards, as well as a bullish runaway market.

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 



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Monday, April 13, 2015

Just a quick update since very little has changed since last week’s charts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Deferring to the daily chart on the Short/Intermediate Outlook.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.29.15 AM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support or bullish if SPX closes above 2117.39 today.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.30.06 AMUnless the SPX closes in an extreme up or down day, it will be neutral to allow for emerging patterns.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2053.40 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2108.10 on Friday, April 17, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 11.34.07 AMThe weekly SPX is still coiling.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 


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