Monday, May 16, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 10.33.29 PMHere’s some analysis on the US Dollar via the US Dollar Index ($DXY). There has been a two week rally in part to relative weakness of other currencies and the slow pace of Fed interest rate policies. The rally came just as the weekly DXY recorded a 9 count TD Buy Setup. Overall, the DXY is expected to stay range bound, and this will be the conclusion if the weekly DXY can close above the 97.064 TDST Resistance. However, if the rally continues with a monthly close (May 31, 2016) above 99.531, that will signal a new upside trend is beginning. Outside those scenarios, a selloff below the recent low at 91.919 will reinforce TD Buy Countdown will take place, and the correction should gain momentum.

Note: This will be the last post as I will take a two month break. Knowing that a lot can happen between that time, I updated the Long Term Outlook.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2059.92 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2016-05-15 at 11.37.53 AMSPX is still selling off, but the real deal is at the 2010.04 TDST Support Level.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2084.39.

Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 9.49.04 PMUsing traditional tools, the SPX closed below the 50 day moving average. This makes the 2112.02 TD Trend Factor more relevant as a top. To officially qualify the viability of the TD Trend Factor, the SPX needs to trade 5.556% lower off the 2111.05 high, placing a soft target at 1993.76.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2091.58 on Friday, May 20, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-13 at 9.10.12 PMThe benefit of the doubt goes to the bears.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.29 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1940.24 on Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-15 at 11.29.37 AMWith Fed policy indecision and an outrageous presidential race, the long term S&P 500 (SPX) is expected to stay bounded between 1850 and 2100. Trading outside those levels should accelerate gains or losses, as the monthly SPX TTM_Squeeze has been coiling for months.


Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Monday, May 9, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 8.11.20 PM The state of the emerging markets, using the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), has helped provide a glimpse of the global outlook. On the weekly EEM, the recent ‘perfected’ TD Sell Setup @9 recorded underneath the 36.27 TDST Resistance level, which is the classic indication that places the EEM on alert for a price decline. On the flip side for the weeks ahead, if the EEM sells off, but not deep enough to close below 30.06, the TDST Support level, the presumption will be that another rally is redeveloping.

Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 10.44.30 AM

Screen Shot 2016-05-08 at 9.12.35 AMFrom an anecdotal note, I often resort to a long time economist, Edward Yardeni’s weekly macro charts. (Here’s the public link: Yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf). There are gobs of sentiment charts, but the Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 is really glaring. This chart speaks to the industry of how bullish asset managers have been the last few years, and historically it has never seen a cluster of red periods recently, going all the way back to 1987. With all the stories floating around about the market saturation of hedge funds, and their underperformance, the chart shows asset managers have been playing catch up at the wrong time. Then with the Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0, note the 2015 – 2016 excessive bearishness which resulted in the sharp rallies. The mass bullishness/bearishness of asset allocation is firmly in place. This helps confirms the neutral outlook on the long term S&P 500 (SPX).


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2050.47 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 7.53.53 PMAlternating price flips is currently supporting the trading range. A selloff below the 2010.04 TDST Support level should accelerate a larger selloff.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2063.37.

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 7.40.50 PMThe current TD Buy Setup @7, correlated with the selloff has not been spectacular with just a 3.3% pullback. If TD Buy Setup records an ‘8’ on Monday and a ‘9’ on Tuesday, along with a low print equal or below 2039.45, then downside price exhaustion has been signaled, and the SPX will need to reset itself and decide on direction.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2057.14 on Friday, May 13, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-05-06 at 5.58.39 PMThe weekly SPX hit another lower low and lower close, but not low enough to keep the TD Buy Setup continuity. Even though a close below 2080.73 is this week’s reverse price flip, another lower close below 2057.14 would be the stronger factor to switch the outlook back to bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.29 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1940.24 on Tuesday, May 31, 2016


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, May 2, 2016

Continuing on gold’s ascent from the Monday, March 21, 2016 post, GLD (SPDR Gold ETF) is appearing to recycle its TD counts on the daily chart. After a minor pullback which GLD never closed below the designated 115.86 TDST Support Level, it is now powering through new highs, and this should continue. Note that on the daily chart, 13’s were recorded, in particular TD Sell Countdown. Considering the TD Sell Countdown @13 were recorded inside of the range of the previous TD Sell Setup, this is a low probability 13 and it should be ignored. On the weekly chart, GLD moves to TD Sell Countdown, suggesting the uptrend is firmly in place – all due to the global central bank quagmire. Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.40.25 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.06.10 PM

For the equity markets, the recent selloff has been on a minor scale. However, with the anticipation that volatility will increase, the near and intermediate term outlook is bearish. Big economic reports this week include European and China PMI’s and US job numbers.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2076.14 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.58.51 PMThe technical difficulties from last week has been addressed. An inadvertent TD Sell Setup was recorded which threw all levels off course. However, the problem was not large enough to change the outlook. Currently the TDST Support is at 2010.04. That’s the level which will determine bull/bear polarity.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2091.70.

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 9.08.11 PMFollow the price flips. Bullish flips are neutral and bearish flips are bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2047.60 on Friday, May 6, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 6.57.39 PMIt is possible the weekly SPX is simply going through a consolidation before powering higher. But since the price exhaustion ingredients are present, we’ll stay with the bearish signal that is given.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.29 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1940.24 on Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 6.27.29 PMThe monthly SPX is still going through a set of alternating price flips. Until the key levels are breached, the outlook will remain neutral.


Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

Monday, April 25, 2016

Continuing on both the Nasdaq (COMP) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) weekly charts from last week, the Nasdaq count has been fulfilled in terms of a ‘perfected’ count with bar 8’s higher high. However, if the Nasdaq should selloff this week, it would be likely the active TD Sell Setup will be cancelled if the weekly close is below 4914.54. On the RUT, a qualified TD Sell Setup @9 is recorded, making it more vulnerable to a selloff. Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.03.53 AMScreen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.12.17 AM

Regarding the equity markets as a whole, there is nothing concrete to say a significant selloff is underway. The missing narrative is the big down candle. That’s for the medium term. The bigger picture suggests the S&P 500 (SPX) 1810.10 low on February 11, 2016, is history and the next big move is to the upside. The breadth of the market rally has been substantial and supports higher prices. Fed day comes this Wednesday and that is the focus for direction.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: 

Apologies for not posting this timeframe. There are bugs in the 4 hour chart, and it is not reading correctly. I should be able to resolve this soon.  


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2100.80.

Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.36.05 AMConsidering the SPX close came less than a point of the TD Trend Factor and the weekly close did not close above the 2104.27 TDST Resistance level, Friday’s bearish price flip will receive the benefit of the doubt. Any reverse bullish price flip this week will revert the outlook back to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2072.78 on Friday, April 29, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-22 at 8.27.59 PMIn the bulls favor, the higher high and close beyond the “9” count TD Sell Setup indicates the trend still has momentum. For the waiting bears, the inability to establish a close above the TDST Resistance at 2104.27 keeps the current outlook as cautious. A close below 2072.78 will swing the outlook to negative.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monday, April 18, 2016

The S&P 500 (SPX) is at a point where some drawdown is expected. The notable chart is on the SPX weekly where a TD Sell Setup @9 has been recorded. To gain even more perspective, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the Russell 2000 are shown below.

Screen Shot 2016-04-16 at 1.38.03 PMThe COMPQ has an active TD Sell Setup @7. A trade equal or higher than 4961.30 this week would qualify bar 8 as having the true high, and ‘perfect’ the count.

Screen Shot 2016-04-16 at 2.19.06 PMFor the weekly RUT, the TD Sell Setup@8 is ‘perfected’ and free to move lower. Similar to the SPX, both the COMPQ and RUT will likely complete their TD counts below their respective TDST Resistance, providing additional impetus to the bears. If a selloff becomes a bit severe in the coming weeks, SPX 1810 is expected to hold as outlined in previous posts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2061.72, the daily SPX bearish price flip.   

Screen Shot 2016-04-17 at 10.47.55 AMThe rally is managing itself well by not breaching 2028.31. This keeps the rally alive. However, with price exhaustion signals coming from longer duration timeframes, any more upside will be suspect.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2061.72

Screen Shot 2016-04-15 at 8.48.26 PMLast week produced another trend exhaustion point with TD Sell Countdown recording a ’13’. If the active TD Sell Setup becomes nullified, especially if the occurs below the 2078.36 TDST Resistance level sometime this week, then expectations for additional upside is greatly diminished.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2035.94 on Friday, April 22, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-15 at 8.31.56 PMClassic TD suggests that if TD Sell Setup records a “9” just below the TDST Resistance level, a potential trend change is in the works. This describes exactly what is happening now, and the weekly SPX gets a chance this week to prove the bull run from the rally low of 1810.10 (February 12, 2016) will turn into a bear run. A close below 2035.94 this week should do it.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Monday, April 11, 2016

Brazilian equities have gained some momentum in recent weeks, and TD indicators point to a bottoming process. The backstory is while Brazil is locked into a recessionary crisis, the political turmoil surrounding the possible impeachment of their current president may provide some political will to end the recession. That possibility is providing some support for Brazil’s Bovespa index which has fallen about 40% from the highs made in 2014. From the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) shown below, all indications point to further gains. The monthly chart recorded its first bullish price flip since September of 2014. This is the primary trend to watch – to see if TD Sell Setup can stay active. The weekly chart broke above the 24.18 TDST resistance. This is significant since it indicates a likelihood TD Sell Setup will lateral to TD Sell Countdown, the trending component of TD Sequential. However, the daily EWZ is nearing their price exhaustion “13’s”. While there is a decent chance it may just recycle higher, any volatility from the economic front and/or the political situation will be considered buying opportunities. Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 10.27.24 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-08 at 10.27.41 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-08 at 9.47.36 PM

For the S&P 500 (SPX), there are market moving news items this week starting with economic releases from China, and the beginning of earnings season.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2028.31 mid-session. Back to neutral if the end of day close returns back above 2028.31.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 9.23.13 PMWith TD Buy Setup @4, a bearish view can be taken if a “5” count is recorded below the TDST Resistance at 2028.31. if the bear view turns out to be false, a good indication would be if the subsequent bar trades and closes above 2028.31.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2028.31.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 8.58.21 PMAlthough volatility crept higher, the SPX stayed in a relatively tight trading range. Very similar to last week’s outlook, caution is warranted due to a multitude of overhead resistance levels, and TD Sell Countdown nearing completion.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 8.43.03 PMThe weekly SPX TD Sell Setup is on bar “8”, and technically, it has not been “perfected”. This leaves the possibility of another run for a marginal high. However, even if a TD Sell Setup @9 is recorded and “perfected”, the uptrend should show some cracks as the TD Sell Setup @9 will likely record below the weekly TDST Resistance at 2104.27. If the weekly should close below 2049.58, that will cancel the TD Sell Setup, and the SPX will likely see more trendless churning.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Monday, April 4, 2014

There are many headwinds coming up on the S&P 500 (SPX). After last week’s Janet Yellen dovish remarks, the short term SPX TD counts recycled higher, bringing the daily SPX price exhaustion signals into the spotlight. Observing the charts, expectations for the SPX to begin struggling between the current level (2072.78) and 2112.02, the TD Trend Factor looks certain.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.00.32 AMThere are too many ambiguous signals to take any direction at the moment. The positives are the four hour SPX held the previous TDST Support at 2010.04, and it recycled higher to a new TD Sell Setup. The negatives are the completed full price exhaustion signals notated by the down blue arrows, and the SPX is now pressing against the longer duration daily TDST Resistance. Since price action is currently bullish, a bearish outlook can be considered with a close below the current 2028.31 TDST Support.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-03 at 9.21.16 AMTD Combo Sell recorded a “13” on Friday’s close. With TD Sell Countdown nearing a “13” and the rally coming against daily and weekly TDST resistance levels, a neutral stance is still warranted. Furthermore, a third degree TD Trend Factor is at 2112.02, providing more caution.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.33.24 AMIf there is a selloff as indicated by the shorter duration timeframes, the weekly TD Sell Setup stays intact as long as the weekly close does not see a reverse price flip at 2022.19 or simply the weekly SPX does not close below 20122.19 this Friday.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 

Screen Shot 2016-04-02 at 10.38.40 AMThe TTM_Squeeze is entering another month of red. The longer the SPX coils, the potential to unleash a lasting rally or selloff is high.


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment