Monday, August 22, 2016

The next bout of volatility is coming, and as indicated by the S&P 500 (SPX) TD counts, the SPX just needs to orchestrate one more rally to begin the consolidation process. Other related indices are also mirroring the SPX, and we’ll make note of any significant charts when the time comes.  The details for the SPX are outlined below.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2168.50 on Monday, August 22, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 9.10.46 PMSince it is anticipated for the SPX to slug higher with alternating price flips, Wednesday’s August 17th low of 2168.50 is chosen as the price level to switch to neutral to alleviate over trading.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2173.60 on Friday, August 26, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-19 at 8.48.17 PMAs long as the weekly closes above 2173.60 this Friday, the first of three price exhaustion signals will be recorded. A trifecta of the TD Sell Setup @9, TD Sell Countdown @13, and TD Combo Sell @13 can occur if the weekly SPX closes at or above 2184.05, and a recorded weekly high of 2193.81 or above.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2065.03 on Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 


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Thursday, August 18, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: Here are a couple charts (four hour S&P 500 (SPX), iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)) that are beginning to show some price exhaustion on shorter time frames. Until all price exhaustion points are fulfilled, the current environment should stay choppy to higher, and more meaningful selling should come when the weekly S&P 500 (SPX) price exhaustion counts are fulfilled. Screen Shot 2016-08-17 at 8.19.16 PMScreen Shot 2016-08-17 at 8.56.46 PM


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Monday, August 15, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: For the S&P 500 (SPX), the next set of price exhaustion signals can begin to show up on the weekly SPX at the end of the week. A weekly close above 2184.05 and a higher high 2188.45 should be enough to record a weekly TD Combo Sell @13 and the 2 week pullback (that’s what we will call it for now) window will begin. If the stars really align, the weekly price exhaustion signals may coincide with the daily SPX, as the daily is shaping up to possibly record 13’s during that same window.Screen Shot 2016-08-14 at 5.39.11 PMScreen Shot 2016-08-14 at 5.39.33 PM


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Monday, August 1, 2016

The recent rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) is showing signs of another breakout to the upside. This is observable on the daily SPX when after the TD Sell Setup @9 was recorded. The SPX is now working off the overbought conditions by trading sideways and looking like it is about ready to take a another notch higher.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2175.03.

Screen Shot 2016-07-30 at 5.46.13 PMThe effects of the recorded TD Sell Setup @9 could be ending and the daily SPX is looking like it will be transitioning to a TD Sell Countdown @13.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2129.90 on Friday, August 5, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-07-30 at 5.43.24 PMWith momentum strong, it is expected to see at least a TD Sell Setup @9. Failure to do so will force the conversation to include the bearish viewpoint.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2065.03 on Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 

Screen Shot 2016-07-30 at 5.42.58 PMAfter nearly a year of trading in a neutral pattern, the monthly SPX is back on the bullish track. The TTM_Squeeze indicator, which has been coiling for months, has the propensity to shoot to the upside. This could lead to another extraordinary bull run.


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Monday, July 25, 2016

There will be another policy announcement when the FOMC meets again this week. The Fed is constantly on the verge of raising rates, but finds it difficult with sluggish global growth and uncertainty. With the US elections looming, market expectations for a rate hike will likely not occur this week. However, on the CBOE 10 year Treasury Index (TNX), the weekly chart will show clear price exhaustion with one more spike lower, increasing the chance that 10 year treasuries will finally find a significant low. Both TD Buy Countdown and TD Combo Buy are closing in on their respective 13’s. The monthly TNX is also nearing a 9 on TD Buy Setup, which provides support for the weekly. Note on the monthly TNX that the 16.14 TDST Support has been broken. This does not have much significance since the monthky bar that closed under the 16.14 TDST Support was a TD Buy Setup @6. It would have more significance if it was TD Buy Setup @1, @2, or @3. Screen Shot 2016-07-24 at 5.07.12 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-24 at 5.18.01 PMFor stocks, US equity outflows and negative sentiment are in abundance. That alone should keep prices afloat for awhile longer.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2173.78.

Screen Shot 2016-07-22 at 9.16.33 PMWhen there is a recorded TD Sell Setup @9, the typical response is a pause, or pullback. With the recent recorded 9, that pullback scenario is still viable, but it is also challenged with an unbroken TD Sell Setup @11. Until there is a bearish price flip, the signal is bullish.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2059.74, the monthly bearish price flip, on Friday, July 29, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-07-24 at 5.55.18 PMIf the rally continues unabated, the trifecta of TD Sell Setup @3, TD Sell Countdown @8 and TD Combo Sell @10 will produce a the sweet spot for a more significant pullback in 3-6 weeks.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 2059.74 on Friday, July 29, 2016.


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Monday, July 18, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: On the daily S&P 500 (SPX), the TD Sell Setup can record an 8 or 9 count on Tuesday or Wednesday. This is the area where the SPX can stall. However, given the strong breadth, an uninterrupted TD Sell Setup past the 9 count has a better than average chance of occurring. The TD Sell Setup for the weekly SPX is still in the early stages, indicating more gains to come. Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 7.31.28 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-15 at 7.26.35 PM

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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: A lot can happen in a month. Brexit came, but a full fledged selloff never materialized, and now, the S&P 500 (SPX) is poised for another tremendous long term rally – like it or not. If this rally reverses course, the TD indicators will help with the exit.

Screen Shot 2016-07-12 at 8.10.29 PMWith the weekly SPX chart, it is clear the 2104.27 TDST Resistance has been breached to the upside, and provides more confidence that the active YD Sell Setup and TD Sell Countdown will complete.

Screen Shot 2016-07-12 at 8.09.23 PMFrom the daily chart, the SPX is best explained through a timeline. First the 1850.61 TDST Support defined the bearish price level, and later the 2112.02 TD Trend Factor defined the upside target. Note the TD Trend Factor was tested twice, but it is no longer active since the minimum 5.5% correction at 1993.76 was recorded. Considering the long term sideways correction lasted over a year, as indicated by the monthly SPX chart (not shown), the recent upside breakout above the 2104.27 TDST Resistance could last awhile.

 

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