Monday, June 18, 2018

Now that the S&P 500 (SPX) has met DeMark reversal signal across several timeframes, the opportunity for the market to sell off is now. With the weekly SPX completing a TD Sell Setup @ 9 and a TD Sell Countdown @ 13, the selloff has the potential to test the early February lows around 2600. This will also see the SPX breaking below the 200 day moving average, which leads to further selling. The daily SPX TDST Support at 2705.27 holds the confirmation that a downturn looks sustainable. A daily close above the previous closing high of 2786.85 this week would require a reevaluation.

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S&P 500 SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2782.95 at the close of Monday, June 18, 2018

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S&P 500 SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2786.85. Back to neutral if SPX closes above 2786.85 any day of the week.

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2721.33 at the close of Friday, June 22, 2018

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, June 11, 2018

Per DeMark’s TD Sequential, the S&P 500 has met the minimum for a trend reversal. Here is an attempt to paint a narrative. The weekly SPX has recorded a TD Sell Setup @8, which sets the minimum for a potential reversal. If the SPX rallies to 2786.24, the weekly TD Sell Countdown @13 will be recorded, adding to a higher level of confidence a turn is around the corner. To pinpoint a detailed look, the daily SPX can record a TD Sell Setup @8 or @9 this Tuesday or Wednesday for the timing. An exhaustive top can be obvious if the SPX shows classic signs with an excessively positive day. There are plenty of market moving headline news this week to bring volatility back.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2770.35 on Monday, June 11, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, June 4, 2018

The last two weeks, the S&P 500 (SPX) has experienced a few bearish drawdowns that was met with dip buyers. That sign of strength keeps the SPX overall bullish. There is a TD Sell Countdown @13 on the short term four hour chart of the SPX. If the SPX can resist any selloff just like the last couple weeks, and keep the SPX bullish, a larger scale reversal may not occur for another week or two. According to the weekly SPX TD Sell Setup, there is an active @7 count. A TD Sell Setup @8 or @9 will signal price exhaustion, and the SPX should begin to experience heavier profit taking. To strengthen that possible bearish scenario in a one to two weeks, the weekly TD Sell Countdown @13 can coincide with the weekly TD Sell Setup if the SPX trades at 2786.24. To keep the weekly SPX bullish this week, the SPX needs to close above 2727.72.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2705.88 at the close of Monday, June 4, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 LONG TERM OUTLOOK

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, May 21, 2018

Momentum stalled for the S&P 500 (SPX), but not so much for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The daily RUT is looking to complete a TD Sell Countdown @13. This can allow for the SPX to eventually trade in the upper range up to 2850. Confirmation for this lies in the ability for the daily SPX to break the 2763.03 TDST Resistance level. If that is successful, then we can point to the weekly SPX where a TD Sell Countdown @13 can be recorded if it trades at 2786.24 or above, the qualifier for the @13. The 2786.24 level is the qualifier since in order for the TD Sell Countdown to record a 13, the SPX needs to trade at TD Sell Setup @ 8’s close or higher, per DeMark’s TD Sequential guidelines.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if four hour SPX trades closes above 2730.10 or trades above 2763.03

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, May 14, 2018

There is some bullish conviction in this latest rally in the S&P 500 (SPX). From the two hour SPX chart, the SPX never hesitated as it traded through the 2708.94 TDST Resistance level. Focus now on the daily SPX chart as it closes in on the TDST Resistance at 2763..03. The expected date where a TD Sell Setup @8 or @9 could meet the TDST Resistance falls on Tuesday or Wednesday. A minor retracement from that level will signal a potential setup towards the 2870 highs. The macro picture still has the SPX in a trading range for a few more months.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2723.05 at the close of Monday, May 13, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, April 30, 2018

There is a unperfected TD Sell Setup @ 9 on the 2 hour S&P 500 (SPX). If any selling can be contained above the 2628.77 TDST Support level, the immediate goal for the SPX is to surpass the 4 hour TDST resistance level at 2708.94. How it beaks these levels in relation to the SPX TD Setups will help determine if price action has sufficient momentum. Generally speaking, closing above/below these levels on TD counts 1-3 will likely signal follow continued momentum. 4-6 has a lesser effect, and 7-9 will likely signal a reversal than momentum.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPC closes below 2667.04 at the close of Monday, April 30, 2018

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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Monday, April 23, 2018

The VIX has subsided from the 20 level, but the S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trade in the plus and minus 1% range. This makes the smaller timeframes more significant. The primary short term chart, the two hour SPX, shows some success in capturing major and minor swings as shown by the shaded areas. Currently the two hour SPX has an active TD Buy Setup @ 8 near the 2656.19 TDST Support. What to look for on Monday is an opening selloff at any level, and ideally having the two hour timeframe recording a TD Buy Setup @ 9 above the 2656.19 TDST Support. This would provide a favorable risk/reward bullish setup. Even if the two hour SPX closes below the 2656.19 TDST level, the bullish setup is still in effect. The difference is the latter will show a sequence of lower lows which makes the SPX more susceptible for even lower lows. Confirmation of a minor bullish trend is to look for bullish price flips in the four hour and daily SPX.

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2693.21

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

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