Monday, March 20, 2017

Continuing from last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) made an attempt to trade higher, but it’s consolidating below the 2383.89 TDST Resistance on the four hour timeframe. Until it can break above that level, equities will continue to trade sideways or show us a downside surprise. Also worthy of noting, the daily SPX can record the first price exhaustion signal this week with a TD Sell Countdown @13. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Bullish if SPX records two consecutive closes above 2383.89 between Monday, March 20, 2017 and Tuesday, March 21, 2017.

SPX - four hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2365.45 on Monday, March 20 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2367.34 on Friday, March 24, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2198.81 on Friday March 31, 2017


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Monday, March 13, 2017

There is some deterioration in the S&P 500 (SPX) last week. Here is an attempt to construct a roadmap by connecting some timeframe dots: From the four hour SPX chart, a narrow range TD Buy Setup @9 was recorded last Thursday, March 9, 2017. With the four hour SPX, it is bullish. The contradiction is the daily SPX is still technically bearish. For Monday’s trading, the daily SPX can continue the active TD Buy Setup by closing below 2368.39, and render the four hour SPX back to bearish. This will provide a signal that a more meaningful selloff is close at hand. However, if the SPX should start to trade above the four hour TDST Resistance level at 2383.89, that is a signal the SPX will want to trade above 2400 to fulfill both TD Sell Countdown @13 and TD Combo Sell @13, possibly right to the fourth degree 2434.63 TD Trend Factor. A full FOMC meeting is on deck for this Wednesday that potentially can raise volatility. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2368.39 (daily price flip) on Monday, March 13, 2017

SPX - four hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2368.39 on Monday, March 13 2017 or below 2395.96 on Tuesday, March 7, 2017 

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2351.16 on Friday, March 17, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2198.81 on Friday March 31, 2017


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Monday, March 6, 2017

Never seen a market like this. All three timeframes of the daily, weekly, and monthly S&P 500 (SPX) are well beyond their respective TD Sell Setup 9 count. However, last Monday’s, March 1, 2017, price action has the look of a capitulation. But since the daily TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell has recycled higher, the beginning of a major correction is not expected at this time. Looking at the monthly SPX, it is currently trading above the 2367.62 risk level. A March close above that could signal a rally extension far from what everyone can believe given the monthly TTM_Squeeze has coiled for longer than a year. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2363.64 on Monday, March 6, 2017 or below 2395.96 on Tuesday, March 7, 2017 

spx-daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2316.10 on Friday, March 10, 2017

spx-weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2198.81 on Friday March 31, 2017

spx-monthly

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Monday, February 27, 2017

While equities are adding to records, the US Dollar and 10 year Treasuries are still seeking direction. However, 10 year Treasury yields as shown by the daily CBOE 10 year Treasury Index (TNX) has shown a crack. The daily TNX closed under the 23.27 TDST Support last Friday, which provides a glimmer of things to come this week. There a few variations after a TDST breach, but if the TNX is to project lower, another close below the 23.27 TDST Support will help validate that projection. Keeping an eye on the bigger picture, the monthly TNX is still in play for higher rates.tnx-dailytnx-monthly

Still awaiting a bearish price flip on the S&P 500 (SPX) index. It has not happened, but it is closer now than last week for the daily SPX. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2365.38 on Monday, February 27, 2017 

spx-daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2297.42 on Friday, March 3, 2017

spx-weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2126.15 on Tuesday, February 28, 2017


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Tuesday, February 20, 2017

dxy-dilyEquities continued their run to higher highs and all timeframes on the S&P 500 (SPX) are on extensions past TD Sell Setup @9, mirroring strong price momentum. Although monetary policy or the intrigue of the shape of fiscal policies to come have not weighed on equity markets, it has bounded the US Dollar Index (DXY) in a range defined by TDST Support and Resistance levels. If DXY moves below 99.43, we can expect equities to be supported as cheap money continues to supply more fuel for equities. If the DXY moves higher than 101.80, the assumption will be fiscal related policies may be difficult to deploy, and equities may suffer as well. Once the DXY gets to these juncture points, another assessment is necessary since they are other TD variables involved. For the S&P 500 (SPX), a reversal of some type is still expected soon despite the daily SPX recording a TD Sell Countdown @13 right below the 2323.89 TD Trend Factor on February 9th. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2337.58 on Tuesday, February 21, 2017 

spx-daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2294.69 on Friday, February 24, 2017

spx-weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2126.15 on Tuesday, February 28, 2017


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Monday, February 13, 2017

The sweet spot for a reversal that started on December 13, 2017 and ended when the S&P 500 (SPX) made new highs on January 24, 2017 has passed us. The next best chances for a reversal are coming up this week. Here are some timeframe by timeframe thoughts about where we could be heading: The rally on the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) is being validated by the upside move in the TTM_Squeeze indicator. Further confirmation can come if the monthly SPX can close above the TD Risk Level at 2367.62. From the weekly perspective, the SPX is barely under its TD Risk Level at 2319.07, but the TD Sell Countdown is in its middle stages, suggesting higher prices ahead. Now this brings us to the daily SPX where it gets a bit more interesting. The daily SPX has already recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13, and nearing the TD Trend Factor at 2323.89. A TD Sell Setup @9 and TD Combo Sell @13 can record this Tuesday and Wednesday. If this occurs, it will be all about the nature of the selloff. Will it be similar to the previous selloff which was a month long sideways consolidation? Will it be a typical 3-5% selloff which brings the SPX back to the bottom of the trading range around 2250, or will it be something more severe and create a bearish price flip in the monthly SPX? Since the longer duration timeframes are bullish, the 3-5% selloff is more probable at this point. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2293.08 on Monday, February 13, 2017 

spx-daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2271.31 on Friday, February 17, 2017

spx-weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2126.15 on Tuesday, February 28, 2017

spx-monthly


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Monday, February 6, 2017

Here is Wayne Whaley’s Nov 19 – Jan 19 studies, which is now presented annually. Wayne Whaley is a former recipient of the Charles Dow award using statistical analysis to gain an edge. While he develops quite a few studies, we picked up his Nov 19 – Jan 19 performance barometer to help determine market direction for the remainder of the year.whaleyBy measuring the S&P 500 (SPX) performance from November 19 – January 19, results has some predictive value for the remainder of the year. Positive performances of 3% or more resulted in gains in the SPX every year since 1950 except for one – The crash of 1987. Gains between 0 – 3% has shown mixed results, but positive for the most part. Negative performances generally shows negative results. Looking back to the results for 2016, the November 19 – January 19 performance recorded a negative 9.71%, but the SPX almost managed a double digit return, going against the statistical consensus. Currently for 2017, the November 19 – January 19 performance recorded a result of 3.75%, which surmises a positive 2017. With the monthly TD_Squeeze (see monthly SPX chart) indicating higher prices, and the potential rollback of financial regulations, the support for a positive 2017 is there. However, the one derailment of performance results of 3% or more occurred during the crash of 1987. Although equities can be considered inexpensive, and economic performance is generally positive, the market just seems one balloon pop away from something drastic. 

For the current TD markers, the SPX continue to creep up to the 2323.89 TD Trend Factor. The daily SPX is close to recording a TD Sell Countdown @13 that may finally trigger something other than a trading range, and break a few TDST Support levels. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2278.87 (daily price flip) on Monday, February 6, 2017 

spx-4hr


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2278.87 on Monday, February 6, 2017 

spx-daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2274.64 on Friday, February 10, 2017

spx-weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2126.15 on Tuesday, February 28, 2017

spx-monthly


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