Monday, October 16, 2017

Continuing from last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) is showing some signs of fatigue, but was still capable in making new highs. Looking at the daily SPX, TD Combo Sell is one count away from a 13, and TD Sell Countdown is three counts away from a 13. TD Sell Setup is on an extended run. If TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell achieves their objectives and records a 13 this week, significant damage is not expected unless a selloff begins to challenge the weekly bearish price flip level at 2502.22.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2550.64 on Monday, October 16, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2502.22 on Friday, October 20, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2423.41 on Tuesday, October 31, 2017


 

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Monday, October 9, 2017

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) is very near price exhaustion levels and we should see some mild profit taking or consolidation starting this week. This can occur on Monday if the daily TD Sell Setup records a 9 with a higher high trade (2552.52). This can also occur on Tuesday if TD Combo Sell records a 13 with consecutive higher closes. To conform to the 2548.92 TD Trend Factor, a higher high on Monday and a close to the 2548.92 would be ideal.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2534.58 on Monday, October 9, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2500.23 on Friday, October 13, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2423.41 on Tuesday, October 31, 2017


 

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Monday, October 2, 2017

Welcome back…Another leg up in the S&P 500 (SPX) is in the works. So far, every price exhaustion point is met with sector rotation, which leads to sideways churn for the SPX. The current narrative is another move higher to the 2548.92 TD Trend Factor, which should be a minor hurdle with some backing and filling. A more difficult period for the SPX will begin in November when the weekly and monthly TD indicators begin to converge. The sweet spot will probably be in January 2018. All in all, a bullish end to 2017. This is supported by the weekly Russell 2000 (RUT). The TTM_Squeeze shows a long price compression, which suggests a prolong move higher. RUT - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2496.84 on Monday, October 2, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2461.43 on Friday, October 6, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2423.41 on Tuesday, October 31, 2017

SPX - Monthly


 

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: If the S&P 500 (SPX) can close above 2441.32 this Friday, then the weekly SPX will price flip bullish, which will create more indecisive trading. If the SPX manages to close below 2441.32, the possibility of additional technical damage stays viable, especially if the daily TDST Support at 2425.53 is broken.

NOTE: I’m still away and casually monitoring the markets until late September. Posts will be fragmented.

SPX - Daily

 

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Monday, August 28, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) feels heavy, but the barometer of negativity remains with the 2425.53 TDST Support level on the daily.

SPX - Daily


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Monday, August 14, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart produced a bearish price flip and now the key chart will be the SPX daily chart. The daily SPX is on a TD Buy Setup @2. If the SPX can puncture the 2425.53 TDST Support level either at the close of Monday or Tuesday’s trading, then a case can be made for a trend change to bearish.

spx - daily


 

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Monday, August 7, 2017

The US Dollar Index (DXY) had all the ingredients to trend higher, but something happened in late 2016. Even though the monthly DXY was well into the TD Sell Countdown phase, it was halted with a bearish engulfing candlestick on January 2017. Looking closer at the weekly DXY in January 2017, after recording a TD Sell Setup @9, the DXY powered higher, but not enough to take out the risk level around the 103 level. The DXY subsequently sold off. Currently the weekly has taken out the 95.422 TDST Support level which is now suggesting even a lower dollar. The DXY is expected to eventually take out long term support established since May of 2015. This is easily seen on the monthly chart.

dxy - monthlydxy - weekly

For the S&P 500 (SPX), consolidation with a bullish bias is still supreme unless the weekly SPX can turn bearish by closing below 2459.27. Close below the daily TDST Support at 2425.52 will especially be a problem.

NOTE: This could be the last post until late September. If time permits, a short quick update may come up.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

spx -daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2459.27 on Friday, August 11, 2017

spx - weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2384.20 on Thursday, August 31, 2017

spx - monthly


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