Monday, May 22, 2017

Despite the solid selloff last Wednesday, May 17, 2017, a follow-through selloff never materialized. However the S&P 500 (SPX) recent low of 2352.72 should be retested. If that test comes along with a breach of the Russell 2000 (RUT) TDST Support at 1349.43, that should signal trouble for the bullish structure. If it turns out the SPX 2352.72 was a low and ends up making new highs, full price exhaustion counts on the weekly SPX can be realized in a minimum of two weeks from now. A weekly SPX TD Sell Setup @13 right at the 2432.98 TD Trend Factor target would raise the probability of a more significant reversal.

RUT - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if four hour SPX closes below 2365.44 on Monday, May 22, 2017

SPX - Four Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2365.44 on the close of Monday, May 22, 2017 or 2357.03 on Tuesday, May 23. 2017
OR Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2400.67 on Monday, May 22, 2017.

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2384.20 on Friday, May 26, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017


 

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Monday, May 15, 2017

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week weaker, but it’s resolving in a tight range which sets up for another bullish spurt. However, the TD counts are maturing on the daily and the weekly SPX. The TD Trend Factor at 2432.98 still remains a viable target in 2-3 weeks. Looking at the related daily indices, Russell 2000 (RUT) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), they also both support the SPX. The RUT’s TDST Support at 1349.43 remains as a solid line of price support. The COMP is undisputedly bullish, and the weekly chart (not shown) nearly coincides with the weekly SPX for price exhaustion in a few weeks. If the SPX begins to probe below 2348.69 (weekly SPX price flip) this week, a different stance will be taken.RUT - DailySPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if four hour SPX closes below 2383.89 or bullish if four hour SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

SPX - 4hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2348.69 on Friday, May 19, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017


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Monday, May 8, 2017

The price exhaustion signals for the S&P 500 (SPX) are starting to become clearer, From the daily SPX chart, TD Sell Setup is a hand’s reach away from the TD Trend Factor at 2432.98. This could possibly coincide with another price exhaustion signal through TD Combo Sell which is just two counts away from a 13. Pair this up with the weekly SPX which is one count away from a TD Combo Sell @13 and two counts away from a TD Sell Countdown @13. If everything unfolds as projected, set the sights on reversal signs.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2391.17 on Monday, May 8, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2348.69 on Friday, May 12, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017


 

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Monday, May 1, 2017

Since last Monday’s April 24 rally on the S&P 500 (SPX), there was high probability the daily SPX would easily record a TD Sell Setup @9. Going into this week, suddenly it is not all that convincing. The daily SPX would need to record a higher close on Monday’s session at 2388.61 to keep the TD Sell Setup active. If it is unable to record a TD Sell Setup @9, that will show signs the SPX is getting weary. The Russell 2000 (RUT) already priced flipped bearish last Friday. The market may fall/trade sideways from here, regroup, and rally to new highs before a larger correction commences. This scenario will support the weekly SPX as it nears 13’s on TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell. Didn’t note this up until now, but the daily SPX sneakily recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13 last Tuesday, April 25, which is showing mild significance so far.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2388.61 on Monday, May 1, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2355.54 on Friday, May 5, 2017

SPX - Weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SPX - Monthly

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Monday, April 24, 2017

Another leg higher is brewing. The Russell 2000 (RUT) has been leading the market higher and lower, and with two tests at the TDST Support level at 1349.43, the RUT once again is looking to grind the rest of the market higher.

RUT - Daily

With the first round of the elections from France behind us, the next showdown will be the potential of a government shutdown in the US this Friday and other political reform announcements. If the S&P 500 (SPX) can get past the four hour TDST Resistance level at 2383.89, the next target is the 2432.98 TD Trend Factor.

As of the time this post is about to be sent, SPX futures has gapped significantly higher, strengthening the bullish case. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish if daily SPX trades above 2361.37 or closes above 2355.84 OR bearish if SPX closes below 2342.19 on Monday, April 24, 2017
SPX - Daily

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish if weekly SPX closes above 2362.72 OR bearish if SPX closes below 2328.95 on Friday, April 28, 2017
SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017


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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) closed 20 handles higher which places the active TD Buy Setup in jeopardy as bullish price flips are close at hand. A close Tuesday above 2353.78 or even a close Wednesday above 2344.93 will neutralize the TD count. While there will be a bullish bias, all other possibilities remain open.

SPX - Daily.png

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Monday, April 17, 2017

There is an active TD Buy Setup on the daily S&P 500 (SPX) that looks promising. Promising in that we will see lower lows, and that a TD Buy Setup 9 count will record around the 2280.85 TDST Support level. The S&P 500 futures (ES) TDST Support level equivalent is at 2270.50. If everything goes as planned, we should see a price exhaustion reversal early next week. Then we can query SPX’s next move either to new highs or an oversold bounce.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2343.98 or bullish if SPX closes above 2357.16 on Monday, April 17, 2017
SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2343.98 on Friday, April 21, 2017
SPX - Weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017

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