Tuesday, January 17, 2017

With the across the board price exhaustion signals, equities (exception: Nasdaq) are having a hard time pushing forward. It has been a month of churning, and we will look to this week to bring some answers to direction, perhaps through economic/earnings releases, or the upcoming presidential inauguration. As long as there is no closing higher high on the daily S&P 500 (SPX), the current prognostication is lower prices. The Nasdaq (COMPQ) should see a stalled rally as it ended the week with a daily TD Sell Setup @8, recording the 9-13-9 TD Sequential. compq-d

Just to throw some weight into the bear market debate for bonds between Bill Gross placing a 2.6% on the 10 year Treasury yield as the bear market level, while Jeffrey Gundlach places the bear market level at 3%. Per the monthly chart of the CBOE 10 Year Treasury Index (TNX), both 2.6% and 3% should be taken out as the monthly TNX closed above 2.3% (22.69), the monthly TDST Resistance level. tnx-m


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily close is below 2268.90 and trades at or below 2254.25 on Tuesday, January 17, 2017 spx-4


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily close is below 2268.90 and trades at or below 2254.25 on Tuesday, January 17, 2017spx-d


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily close is below 2263.79 and records a trade at or below 2254.25 on Friday, January 20, 2017spx-w


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2168.27 on Tuesday, December 31, 2017


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Monday, January 9, 2017

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) has regrouped and recorded a new closing high. This does not change the primary prognostication with many weekly and monthly charts recording or very nearly recording price exhaustion. However, the shorter term charts are a bit more complicated. Even with the new high on the SPX, it is free to roll over anytime from today to next week. Today due to the four hour SPX chart in the sweet spot of price exhaustion and the daily SPX rallying back to perfect the TD Sell Setup @9. Despite those price exhaustion indications, the Nasdaq’s price action (see chart below) is suggesting an active TD Sequential 9-13-9 is in play which could finalize next week. We’ll continue to see how all these variables reconcile with each other. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2269.04 on Monday, January 9, 2017

screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-2-32-19-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2257.83 on Monday, January 9, 2017

screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-2-31-25-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2258.07 on Friday, January 13, 2017

screen-shot-2017-01-08-at-2-38-02-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2168.27 on Tuesday, December 31, 2017


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Tuesday, January 3, 2017

The first post of the year is more of an update than the changing dynamics going forward into 2017. The S&P 500 (SPX) finally slipped under the 2245.96 TDST Support level. However, the stability of other correlated instruments such as volatility or the  US Dollar suggests the selloff could be brief, before resting lower again. On the daily SPX, the current selloff has a decent chance of recording @9 count on the TD Buy Setup before stalling above 2245.96. If it gets to that point, the charts will be subject to another evaluation.   


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH  

Neutral if SPX closes above 2249.52 on the close of the session on Tuesday or Wednesday.

screen-shot-2016-12-30-at-6-14-07-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2259.53 on Friday, January 6, 2017. screen-shot-2016-12-30-at-6-01-43-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2168.27 on Tuesday, January 31, 2017. 

screen-shot-2016-12-30-at-5-50-20-pm

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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

It’s becoming more probable that any significant price action for the S&P 500 (SPX) will begin in the beginning of January of 2017. Going into a narrative, the 30/60 minute chart’s TDST Support (2245.96/2254.19) needs to hold to give the SPX a chance to march higher. If successful, another higher high is likely, but may not last long. Given the repetitive media call to see Dow 20,000, seeing a Dow 20k along with a higher high in the SPX, a subsequent selloff would fit nicely with the weekly TD Sell Setup. In the event the SPX decides to selloff without another higher high, and breaks under the 2245.96/2254.96 levels, then the daily TDST Support at 2191.95 comes into play. 

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2254.19  and trades below 2245.96 any day this week. 

screen-shot-2016-12-23-at-6-47-15-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2213.35 on Friday, December 30, 2016. 

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S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2170.95 on Friday, December 30, 2016. 


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Monday, December 19, 2016

Last Wednesday’s (December 13, 2016) TD Sell Countdown @13 and TD Combo Sell @13 both signaled the top for the daily S&P 500 (SPX) – So far. The small selloff did not materially damage the overall uptrend. If the SPX should deteriorate, the 30 minute and 60 minute TDST Support levels between 2245.96 and 2254.19 should not hold as shown below on the hourly SPX chart.screen-shot-2016-12-17-at-9-25-05-amFurthermore, if the SPX should break below the 30/60 minute TDST Support levels, the daily TDST Support at 2191.95 will then serve as the primary support level. Inability to break below that level will suggest seasonal tendencies will dominate with the backing and filling to fulfill the 9 count for the weekly TD Sell Setup. By the way, the weekly SPX can record a 9 count without recording a higher closing high on the daily SPX. It just won’t be perfected.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2254.19  and trades below 2245.96 any day this week. 

screen-shot-2016-12-17-at-9-27-04-am


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2213.35 on Friday, December 23, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-12-17-at-9-27-45-am


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2170.95 on Friday, December 30, 2016. 


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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) recorded both a TD Sell Countdown @13 and TD Combo Sell @13 on the close of the session. They are also notated by the stacked blue arrows. Furthermore, another higher high spike during Wednesday’s session will ‘perfect’ the TD Sell Setup count. This is all happening the day before the Fed policy meeting. While the consensus is to see a rate hike, what comes after may matter more. During the latter part of the trading session will have the Fed Q&A with the press. For traders looking to lighten positions or taking a shot at shorting the market, many TD indicators are at its peak. If a selloff is more than rotational, the weekly TD Sell Setup on the SPX will have trouble recording a 9 count and fail.screen-shot-2016-12-13-at-8-45-31-pm

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Monday, December 12, 2016

Equity markets continue to rally this month, but daily and long term TD price indicators are about to show price exhaustion as soon as this week. Digging in more detail, the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) is about to complete a TD Sell Setup @9 this month. Looking at the weekly SPX, the active TD Sell Setup indicates the final week of December would be ideal for the pending pullback. Moving in closer, if the daily SPX completes another new closing high, it will open the window for a selloff from Monday’s close to the end of the week. While cash on the sidelines will likely make its way back into equities in 2017, the bears best hope for a complete bull trap is late this month/early January.

There are a lot more charts shown this week than usual for reference.  

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S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2241.35 on Tuesday, December 13, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-6-09-14-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if the SPX closes below 2181.90 on Friday, December 16, 2016.

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-5-51-27-pm


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2170.95 on Friday, December 30, 2016. 

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-5-48-25-pm


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