Wednesday, July 29, 2015

QUICK UPDATE: Been awhile since we’ve seen Tom DeMark on the tube. Much of his focus has been on China where he is more in phase in his top and bottom calls. His magic number is 3200 on the Shanghai Index (SSEC), which is a 62% Fibonacci retrace. From there, he mentions additional re-evauation is necessary. Using the weekly Market Vectors China A-Shares ETF (PEK) as a proxy for the Shanghai Index, a standard 61.8% has been applied from a designated bottom on March 21, 2014 to the recent top at June 12, 2015. The Fib retracement lies very near the 44.25 TDST Support. A recorded ‘9’ count, albeit a ‘non-perfected’ TD Buy Setup, should produce at least a temporary bottom. Here is the  Bloomberg and CNBC source.

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 9.42.16 PM

As for the S&P 500 (SPX), the four hour chart turned bullish. Since it has been determined the SPX will go into a trading range (with lots of volatility), following the price flips on the four hour chart is the strategy choice. Given that a bullish price flip has been completed in the first half of trading today, Tuesday July 28, the near term outlook is bullish. FOMC meeting is up next.

Screen Shot 2015-07-28 at 9.20.39 PM

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Monday, July 27, 2015

Last week’s selloff was deep enough to keep the protracted trading range S&P 500 (SPX) intact through the end of the month.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if close is above 2102.15 at the close of today.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.42.15 PMA ‘perfected’ 9 count TD Buy Setup should complete in the first half of the session today. With the deep retracement from last week, the strategy of following price flips is back in play.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.42.30 PMOnce again, a full ‘9’ count momentum trend has been halted, which is indicative of the continuing trend of no trend.

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Back to neutral if SPX is unable to close below 2076.78 on Friday, July 31, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-26 at 9.44.39 PMA complete negative turnaround and now the SPX is looking heavy. We will give it the benefit of the doubt a selloff will continue.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above the all time monthly closing high of 2107.39 on July 31, 2015.


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Monday, July 20, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-19 at 6.24.12 PMThe volatility of the Shanghai market has not gone unnoticed. When the selloff set itself in motion weeks ago, China’s central bank problem solving unit lowered lending rates again to prop the market. There was a sanguine consensus among analysts that calm would be restored. It didn’t help. In fact, the selloff became a rout. Now regulators are taking desperate measures by buying securities outright, banning selling, and modifying lending rules. Using the momentum based TD Buy Setup on the weekly Market Vectors China A-Shares (PEK) as a proxy for the Shanghai market, we have a tool to gauge if market momentum has indeed halted. The current count on the weekly PEK is TD Buy Setup @5. If the weekly PEK can stay above 54.26 by this Friday, July 24, 2015, we can designate the market has stabilized and remain trendless until the next catalyst. A break below the TDST Support level at 44.25 this week will likely expose some systemic risks.

For the S&P 500 (SPX), another potential selloff is thwarted and given the weekly TTM_Squeeze is still coiling, gains may beget further gains. The weekly is still the dominant SPX timeframe.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bearish if SPX closes below 2108.95, the daily bearish price flip on Monday, July 20, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-19 at 5.48.03 PMThere was a recorded 9 count TD Sell Setup last Thursday, July 16, 2015. But the completed TD Sell Setup has lateraled into TD Sell Countdown, the second portion of TD Sequential. This observation has led me to believe any price give back will be minimal, especially that the daily TD Sell Setup is likely to record a ‘9’.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX below 2108.95 on the close of Monday, July 20, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-19 at 5.48.38 PMIt’s far likelier the SPX will issue a new all time closing high and a recorded TD Sell Setup @9. But if TD Sell Setup is interrupted with a bearish price flip, expect more indecisive range trading.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Change to bearish if SPX closes below 2101.49 or bullish if SPX closes above 2126.64, the previous weekly close on Friday, July 24, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-19 at 5.46.34 PMIf the weekly SPX continues to show strength, we’ll give it the benefit of the doubt that a new uptrend is emerging. However, a strong giveback below 2101.49 will signal will re-assume a new downtrend.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above the all time monthly closing high of 2107.39 on July 31, 2015.


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Thursday, July 16, 2015

QUICK UPDATE: As the 4 hour and daily S&P 500 chart turns neutral, the 4 hour SPX is one bar away from the first sell test. The 4 hour SPX is on TD Sell Setup @8. To ‘perfect’ the setup on the 4 hour chart, the high of bar 9 needs to match or exceed bar 7’s high of 2114.14. Once recorded, there is a good chance the market will begin to test the downside since the completed TD Sell Setup records a 9 count under the 2125.10 TDST Resistance level. If the potential 9 bar is not able to hold 2106.57, we would need to wait for the next setup. Aggressive traders should follow the price flips and hope to catch a trend.

Screen Shot 2015-07-15 at 10.07.53 PM

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Monday, July 13, 2015

Plenty of action in the markets since late May, but a long term trading range in the S&P 500 is the primary prognostication. For the S&P 500 charts below, the primary timeframe of interest is the weekly chart. The TTM_Squeeze is firmly in place. This is representative of bullish market traders who are positioning long by buying the dips and bearish market traders who are shorting the market. Breakouts from designated support or resistance levels should be taken seriously.

Aside: Even though I take fairly long trading breaks, I always take a trade here and there while I’m away. This year was different. I took a trip abroad to Seoul, but right before I left, my laptop logic board blew up, and I was forced to be completely off the grid. Although I was aware of what was happening with Greece and China, I was void of any charts. Without the influence of any charting functions, and even CNBC, I feel truly refreshed side arriving back in the US. For anyone is who considers himself an active trader should implement regular trading breaks – longer the better. (Thanks for the comments)


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes above 2085.57, the daily TDST Support level. 

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.48.13 PMThe short term SPX is in a congestion area where it will attempt to rally. Until it clears 2085.57, the best course action is to follow TD Sequential.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2085.57, the recent daily TDST Support level.

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.47.59 PMSimilar to the 4 hour SPX chart, the TDST level has been violated to the downside. The one difference is the absence of TD Buy Setup counts. One evidence of at least a temporary rebound is the bounce right at the 127% Fibonacci target. Note the TD Trend Factor is still technically valid since the SPX has not fallen more than 5.5% from the top.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 2109.99 on July 17, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.47.45 PMThis is probably the best timeframe to look at for clarity sake. The TD Buy Setup is in motion and one more lower low will set the minimum to qualify a potential 9 count TD Buy Setup and a subsequent rally. Note the TTM_Squeeze indicator is getting really extended, signaling a significant upside or downside move.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above the all time monthly closing high of 2107.39 on July 31, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.37.11 PMThe wait is over. For the first time since late 2012, a bearish price flip has been marked on the close of June, 2015. The default projection is the market needs to rest and carve a long duration trading range. Not considering a bearish outlook just yet. This stance can change if Europe becomes disorderly or if China decides to weaken the Renminbi.


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Friday, May 22, 2015

Blog is offline until July.

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Monday, May 11, 2015

Quick Update: Last Friday’s jobs number was bullish for the equity markets, but not good enough to change the neutral status. All the bullish and bearish levels remain the same. Bullish if the S&P 500 (SPX) closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor and bearish with a close below 2046.74. The weekly SPX is still coiling. Screen Shot 2015-05-09 at 11.34.19 PM


 

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