Monday, July 31, 2017

Some cracks in equities last week, but there will be no technical damage as long as the S&P 500 (SPX) meanders above the 2420 – 2425 level. One of the cracks was demonstrated by the daily Nasdaq Powershares QQQ (QQQ). It produced a large bearish engulfing pattern last Thursday, in part attributable to the weekly price exhaustion signals.

qqq - daily

The same can be said of the Russell 2000 (RUT). However, if the RUT begins to show leadership higher, it could really take off as the weekly RUT chart is showing a long volatility squeeze that has been building up for weeks.

rut - dailyrut - weekly

A note for commodity watchers, The monthly chart for copper futures (HG) recorded a TD Buy Setup @ 9 on February 2016 above the 1.506 TDST Support level, and for the close of this month, copper reached the first hurdle by surpassing the 2.767 TDST Resistance level. This will be construed as bullish. Should it trade below the TDST level, further analysis is needed.

copper - monthly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

spx - daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2425.18 or Bullish if the close is above 2472.54 on Friday, August 4, 2017

spx - weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2362.72 on Monday, July 31, 2017


 

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Thursday, July 27, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) has now recorded both TD Sell Setup @ 9, and TD Sell Countdown @ 13 on the daily chart. With new highs everywhere on various indices, and the weekly chart price flipped bullish, any pullback could just well be temporary. A bearish stance will be considered if the new TDST Support at 2425.53 can be challenged or if the weekly SPX can record a bearish price flip.

spx - daily


 

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Monday, July 24, 2017

Markets remain ultra resilient. However, it’s still not a certainty another bull leg higher is taking place. The daily Powershares QQQ (QQQ) has recorded a TD Sell Setup @ 9, and trading this week will determine if it can lateral to TD Sell Countdown. With the weekly QQQ at price exhaustion levels, the new high last week is not enough to switch to bullish quite yet.

qqq - daily

Same with the S&P 500 (SPX), the daily chart is one higher high away from recording a TD Sell Setup @9, and two notches away from recording a TD Sell Countdown @13. However, with the fresh highs made last week, the odds of another leg up are growing. If equity markets are to make any meaningful price correction of 10% or time correction of more than a couple weeks of trading consolidation, then it needs to start showing signs it will happen this week.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

spx - daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2423.41 or Bullish if the close is above 2472.54 on Friday, July 28, 2017

spx - weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2362.72 on Monday, July 31, 2017


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Monday, July 10, 2017

The Powershares QQQ (QQQ) was on a TD Buy Setup @ 7 before Friday’s jobs numbers, but the rally was good enough to end Friday’s session with a bullish price flip. The inability for the Q’s to record a TD Buy Setup @ 9 suggests market indecision. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) recorded two of three bars closing under the 6121.29 TD Support level before price flipping bullish. This also aligns with the Q’s supporting a directionless market.

qqq - dailynasdaq daily

Projecting forward for all indices, but using the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 (SPX) as prime examples, weekly charts are at price exhaustion levels. Strong rallies should be capped. From daily charts, all the TDST Support levels have been challenged, but there has been no selling follow through. Everything continues to suggest range bound trading. However, directional bias is not static as volatility could come this week. There are hosts of potential catalysts with the beginning of earnings season and Janet Yellen’s testimonies to the House and Senate.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX -daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2433.15 on Friday, July 14, 2017

SPX - weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2362.72 on Monday, July 31, 2017


 

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Monday, July 3, 2017

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP), which is trading at TD Buy Setup @4, is still holding above the 6121.29 TDST Support level. If this continues, it would be easy to say a price rally will soon follow. However, the related index, the Powershares QQQ (QQQ), has its daily chart showing the same count, TD Buy Setup @4, except the Q’s are trading well below the TDST Support level at 138.78. This would suggest the Q’s would continue to trade lower and lateral into TD Buy Countdown from TD Buy Setup. If that is he case, it would make sense the Nasdaq COMP would follow the same path and easily trade below the 6121.29 level, and take everything down including the S&P 500 (SPX). However, this s not exactly a case where one index follows another. Here is what to expect using both the COMP and QQQ.

QQQ dailyNasdaq daily

If the QQQ trades to a TD Buy Setup @9, and the COMP never closes below the 6121.29 level then we can expect another rally to follow. (Actually, the COMP can close below the 6121.29 level, but we’ll deal with that if it gets there)

If the QQQ price flips bullish before TD Buy Setup reaches a @9, and the COMP never closes below 6121.29 level, then everything resets again and range bound trading should dominate.

If the COMP should close below the 6121.29 level, there will be a bearish inclination, but could be subdued due to the COMP having a mature TD Buy Setup count. This will require further analysis.

Based off these scenarios, short term clarity is still not there. Longer term, the weekly COMP suggests any rally will be capped.

Nasdaq weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2419.38 on Monday, July 3, 2017

SPX daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2431.77 on Friday, July 7, 2017

SPX weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2362.72 on Monday, July 31, 2017

SPX Monthly


 

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Monday, June 26, 2017

Nasdaq daily

The current trading environment is still flat on the S&P 500 (SPX) despite the one higher close recorded last week. Ultimately, the tech heavy Nasdaq (COMP) continues to hold the cards for all markets. A technical breakdown can be avoided if the Nasdaq can avoid closing prices below the daily TDST Support at 6121.29.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2439.07 (weekly price flip) on the close of Monday, June 26, 2017

SPX daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2439.07 on Friday, June 30, 2017

SPX weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2363.64 on Friday, June 30, 2017


 

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Monday, June 19, 2017

The real story is pointing to the Nasdaq (COMP). The weakness has been subtle. Even if the daily Nasdaq drops below the 6121.29 TDST Support level, it may be short lived as the daily TD Buy Setup is currently on count 6. This will set up a rally if the Nasdaq TD Buy Setup records a 9 count around the 6121.29 level. However, if a rally does come, it is going against the weekly Nasdaq price exhaustion levels, which recorded a TD Sell Setup @9 last week. As a result, the best bull case for the Nasdaq is a long duration digestion or consolidation period. The best bear case is for any rally to fizzle and trade below 6121.29. Such a Nasdaq selloff coupled with a S&P 500 (SPX) selloff below the SPX 2398.42 TDST Support level, should indicate more damage ahead.

Nasdaq - DailyNasdaq - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2440.35 on the close of Monday, June 19, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2415.82 on Friday, June 23, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2363.64 on Friday, June 30, 2017


 

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