Monday, May 21, 2018

RUT - Daily

Momentum stalled for the S&P 500 (SPX), but not so much for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The daily RUT is looking to complete a TD Sell Countdown @13. This can allow for the SPX to eventually trade in the upper range up to 2850. Confirmation for this lies in the ability for the daily SPX to break the 2763.03 TDST Resistance level. If that is successful, then we can point to the weekly SPX where a TD Sell Countdown @13 can be recorded if it trades at 2786.24 or above, the qualifier for the @13. The 2786.24 level is the qualifier since in order for the TD Sell Countdown to record a 13, the SPX needs to trade at TD Sell Setup @ 8’s close or higher, per DeMark’s TD Sequential guidelines.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if four hour SPX trades closes above 2730.10 or trades above 2763.03

SPX - Four Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly


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Monday, May 14, 2018

SPX - Two Hour

There is some bullish conviction in this latest rally in the S&P 500 (SPX). From the two hour SPX chart, the SPX never hesitated as it traded through the 2708.94 TDST Resistance level. Focus now on the daily SPX chart as it closes in on the TDST Resistance at 2763..03. The expected date where a TD Sell Setup @8 or @9 could meet the TDST Resistance falls on Tuesday or Wednesday. A minor retracement from that level will signal a potential setup towards the 2870 highs. The macro picture still has the SPX in a trading range for a few more months.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2723.05 at the close of Monday, May 13, 2018

SPX -Four Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX -Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly


 

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Monday, April 30, 2018

2 hour

There is a unperfected TD Sell Setup @ 9 on the 2 hour S&P 500 (SPX). If any selling can be contained above the 2628.77 TDST Support level, the immediate goal for the SPX is to surpass the 4 hour TDST resistance level at 2708.94. How it beaks these levels in relation to the SPX TD Setups will help determine if price action has sufficient momentum. Generally speaking, closing above/below these levels on TD counts 1-3 will likely signal follow continued momentum. 4-6 has a lesser effect, and 7-9 will likely signal a reversal than momentum.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPC closes below 2667.04 at the close of Monday, April 30, 2018

4 hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly


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Monday, April 23, 2018

SPX - Two Hour

The VIX has subsided from the 20 level, but the S&P 500 (SPX) continues to trade in the plus and minus 1% range. This makes the smaller timeframes more significant. The primary short term chart, the two hour SPX, shows some success in capturing major and minor swings as shown by the shaded areas. Currently the two hour SPX has an active TD Buy Setup @ 8 near the 2656.19 TDST Support. What to look for on Monday is an opening selloff at any level, and ideally having the two hour timeframe recording a TD Buy Setup @ 9 above the 2656.19 TDST Support. This would provide a favorable risk/reward bullish setup. Even if the two hour SPX closes below the 2656.19 TDST level, the bullish setup is still in effect. The difference is the latter will show a sequence of lower lows which makes the SPX more susceptible for even lower lows. Confirmation of a minor bullish trend is to look for bullish price flips in the four hour and daily SPX.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2693.21

SPX - Four Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly


 

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Monday, April 16, 2018

SPX - 15 min

Monday is currently setup as a choppy day. Here’s a look into the first hour of trading. The 15 minute SPX chart is currently on an active TD Buy Setup @7. If a TD Buy Setup @ 9 is recorded, the SPX should be below 2645.05. If there is a bullish reversal in the first hour of trading, the SPX would need to rally past the 5 minute TDST resistance at 2663.13. If accomplished, the 2 hour SPX would price flip bullish, and pave the way for additional gains throughout the session. All this needs to completed in the first two hours of trading.

SPX - 2 hour

If the 15 minute SPX unable to record a TD Buy Setup @ 9 and records a price flip instead, the initial rally would be suspect. The 2 hour SPX is nearing a TD Sell Countdown @ 13, and the 4 hour SPX is nearing a TD Sell Setup @ 9 (See SHORT TERM OUTLOOK for chart). This is signaling a possible bull trap and an uncommitted trading session.
The ultimate barometer is still the 200 day Moving Average. Trade through that and the 2499 TD Trend Factor and the weekly 2446.55 TDST Support level are good price target levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - 4 Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly

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Monday, April 9, 2018

SPX - 15 min - 1SPX - Daily ref

Despite the heavy selloff last Friday, overall, the S&P 500 (SPX) is still tilted bullish as the universal 200 day Moving Average is still regarded as the bull/bear line. However, those with shorter time horizons need to use shorter timeframes. With the VIX above 20, the best practice is to have at least two different timeframes that are congruent in terms of TD Sequential. Using last week’s price action to explain, the 15 minute SPX recorded a TD Buy Setup @ 9 and nearly recorded a TD Combo Buy @ 13 last Monday, April 2 (shown above). Given the elevated volatility, locating another timeframe that can corroborate would be helpful in placing counter trades. In this case, the daily SPX recorded a perfected TD Buy Setup @9 and a TD Buy Setup @ 13 at the close of Monday, April 2, the same day as the referenced 15 minute SPX. That setup provided the first solid selling exhaustion signal, and it was supported with the SPX trading above the 200 day Moving Average the following day. The line of thinking now is a significant bullish counter trend rally can take place.

SPX - 15 min -2SPX - 2 Hour

While the rally in the SPX looked promising, on Thursday April 5, the 15 min SPX and the primary 2 hour SPX recorded TD price exhaustion signals. The 30 min SPX (not shown) was also aligned with the 15 min and 2 hour SPX. At this point, traders have to take sides. You can hedge to guard against a reversal or if still overall bullish, wait for a potential consolidation to work itself off for example.

SPX - TDST

In hindsight, the SPX went into selloff mode towards the end of Friday, April 6. To measure the severity of the selloff,  the 15 min TDST Support level at 2609.72 was utilized. If it can hold, that would still support the bull case, which it did not.

SPX - 60 min

Now that a bearish element is in the folds, here is what holds for this week. The SPX is still dancing around the 200 day MA. Another close below would likely see the 2499 TD Trend Factor. For Monday, to keep the bullish identity, there is a TD Buy Setup @ 9 on the 60 min chart. It would need to do some heavy lifting to turn the SPX bullish, and that can be accomplished by reversing the active TD Buy Setup on the 2 hour SPX. Besides using different timeframes of the same index, utilizing traditional tools such as the TRIN, put/call ratios, etc, will reinforce the TD indicators.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2666.62 mid-day or above 2662.73 OR 

Bearish if SPX trades below 2586.27 or closes below 200 day MA at the close of Monday, April 9, 2018

SPX - 4 hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Daily

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Weekly
 

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice

SPX - Monthly


 

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Tuesday, April 3, 2018

SPX - Daily

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) recorded both a ‘perfected’ TD Buy Setup @ 9, and a TD Buy Countdown @ 13. To see a rally ‘stick’, the first order is to trade above the 200 day MA, then trade above the 30 minute TDST Resistance at 2653.41.


 

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