Monday, May 1, 2017

Since last Monday’s April 24 rally on the S&P 500 (SPX), there was high probability the daily SPX would easily record a TD Sell Setup @9. Going into this week, suddenly it is not all that convincing. The daily SPX would need to record a higher close on Monday’s session at 2388.61 to keep the TD Sell Setup active. If it is unable to record a TD Sell Setup @9, that will show signs the SPX is getting weary. The Russell 2000 (RUT) already priced flipped bearish last Friday. The market may fall/trade sideways from here, regroup, and rally to new highs before a larger correction commences. This scenario will support the weekly SPX as it nears 13’s on TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell. Didn’t note this up until now, but the daily SPX sneakily recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13 last Tuesday, April 25, which is showing mild significance so far.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2388.61 on Monday, May 1, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2355.54 on Friday, May 5, 2017

SPX - Weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SPX - Monthly

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Monday, April 24, 2017

Another leg higher is brewing. The Russell 2000 (RUT) has been leading the market higher and lower, and with two tests at the TDST Support level at 1349.43, the RUT once again is looking to grind the rest of the market higher.

RUT - Daily

With the first round of the elections from France behind us, the next showdown will be the potential of a government shutdown in the US this Friday and other political reform announcements. If the S&P 500 (SPX) can get past the four hour TDST Resistance level at 2383.89, the next target is the 2432.98 TD Trend Factor.

As of the time this post is about to be sent, SPX futures has gapped significantly higher, strengthening the bullish case. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish if daily SPX trades above 2361.37 or closes above 2355.84 OR bearish if SPX closes below 2342.19 on Monday, April 24, 2017
SPX - Daily

S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish if weekly SPX closes above 2362.72 OR bearish if SPX closes below 2328.95 on Friday, April 28, 2017
SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017


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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

QUICK UPDATE: The S&P 500 (SPX) closed 20 handles higher which places the active TD Buy Setup in jeopardy as bullish price flips are close at hand. A close Tuesday above 2353.78 or even a close Wednesday above 2344.93 will neutralize the TD count. While there will be a bullish bias, all other possibilities remain open.

SPX - Daily.png

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Monday, April 17, 2017

There is an active TD Buy Setup on the daily S&P 500 (SPX) that looks promising. Promising in that we will see lower lows, and that a TD Buy Setup 9 count will record around the 2280.85 TDST Support level. The S&P 500 futures (ES) TDST Support level equivalent is at 2270.50. If everything goes as planned, we should see a price exhaustion reversal early next week. Then we can query SPX’s next move either to new highs or an oversold bounce.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2343.98 or bullish if SPX closes above 2357.16 on Monday, April 17, 2017
SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2343.98 on Friday, April 21, 2017
SPX - Weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017

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Monday, April 10, 2017

Nothing has changed since last week as the S&P 500 (SPX) continues to sloth around. The four hour SPX TD Resistance level at 2383.89 is still the true breakout point.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2357.56 on Monday, April 10, 2017 

SPX - four hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes above 2360.16 on Monday, April 10, 2017 or Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2378.25 any day during the week.

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2378.25 on Friday, April 14, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017


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Monday, April 3, 2017

A snapshot of the S&P 500 (SPX) TD counts. On the surface, it appears the TD Trend Factor can be reached at 2432.98. The path can get easier if the 2383.89 TD Resistance level on the 4 hour SPX can be broken. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Bearish if SPX closes below 2358.57 on Monday, April 3, 2017

SPX - 4 Hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2383.89 or Bearish if SPX closes below 2358.57 on Monday, April 3, 2017.

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2372.60 on Friday, April 7, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2238.83 on Friday, April 28, 2017

SPX - Monthly


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Monday, March 27, 2017

Last Tuesday’s close of the S&P 500 (SPX) recorded a loss of more than 1%. If bearish momentum continues, then Monday’s trading will need to see the SPX close less than 2344.02, which is last Tuesday’s close. In DeMark terminology, Monday’s close needs to be lower than the close four bars earlier. A close above 2344.02 would suggest the market has been equalized and everything is on the table. Although the daily TDST Support resides at 2280.85, the 2320 level can be a rebound point based on some Fibonacci clusters. For those extrapolating out, the weekly TDST Support is at 2085.18, which equates to about a 10% correction. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2344.02 on Monday, March 27, 2017.

SPX - four hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2344.02 on Monday, March 27, 2017.

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2383.12 on Friday, March 31, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2198.81 on Friday March 31, 2017


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