Monday, August 8, 2022

The S&P 500 (SPX) averted breaking any kind of designated support levels and rallied higher. The coming week should be more challenging as both the daily and the 2 day SPX charts are very near TD Sequential price exhaustion levels. For simplification, if the SPX can record a print at 4167.66 or higher and record a TD Sell Setup @9, this will mark the beginning of potentially a major price exhaustion period. With or without a perfected TD Sell Setup @9, trading below the 15/30 minute TDST Support at 4091.33 will demonstrate cracks in the rally and trade below the cluster of short term TDST Support levels at 3920.32 should confirm the halt of the current bull trend.

If the SPX can continue to shake off any selloffs, it’s more probable the bull trend won’t end until August 19 – 22. First note a potential catalyst day will be on Wednesday, August 10th, when the monthly CPI print is released. Normally if the daily SPX is approaching a 9 count, it would make sense to fade the CPI print no matter the print. However, momentum has been strong as short term counts were doubled up by recording back to back ‘9’ counts for a total a 18 counts or TD Sell Setup @9 + 9. If there is a favorable below consensus CPI print, the daily SPX can also mirror the short term counts with a TD Sell Setup @9 + 9. If this is achieved, the daily SPX will be on track to record price exhaustion between August 19th – August 22nd. This will potentially coincide with the 3 and 4 day charts when they record their respective TD Sell Setup @9 counts. A potential target could be TD Trend Factor at 4342.31 as shown on the daily chart. 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD – Coinbase) has entered a volatility squeeze per the TTM_Squeeze indicator. It is also bounded by the 8 hour TDST Resistance level at 24600 and the 21045.73 TDST Support level. Against the Nasdaq or even the SPX, the BTC relative strength is weak. While it’s possible BTC may have hit a bottom at 17567.45 back on Saturday, June 18th, money is not  flowing to crypto as in the past. A break above the 24600 TDST Resistance may just be another sell opportunity when the next TD Sequential counts are recorded possibly around 30k. 

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