Monday, October 19th, 2020

The S&P 500 (SPX) was not able to maintain a TD Sell Setup as of Friday’s close, but the recent pullback was a typical 3% drawdown that did not harm the overall bullish picture. The next challenge is to determine if there is more upside or the recent high at 3549.85 marked the high. This will require a look at the neighboring timeframes to help trace the next move. The TD Trend Factor at 3566.34 was included as a reference point.

From the two hour timeframe, the SPX was able to react to the TD Buy Setup @9 with a high retracement off the 9 count. It would be natural for the SPX to retest the TD Buy Setup @9 candle at 3440.45 one or two times before pushing higher towards the 3534.21 TDST Resistance level. 

Assuming 3440.45 holds and the SPX continues higher, the two day SPX is nearing price exhaustion with a potential TD Sell Setup @8 on Tuesday, October 20th and TD Sell Setup @9 on Thursday, October 22nd. The minimum price to perfect the count is 3534.01 (perfected if TD Sell Setup @8 or @9 is higher or equal to TD Sell Setup @6 and @7). From there, we should complete enough upside and challenge the 3220.26 TDST Support level again. 

Weekly SPX showing a text book response to the TD Sell Setup @9. It is positioned to either lateral to the TD Sell Countdown phase or challenge the 3115.70 TDST Support level. The longer it spends above the February, the more it favors TD Sell Countdown. 


Consensus narrative from analysts a month ago was a volatile October. That has not really materialized. Rather the SPX is in the midst of a bullish leg. Adhering to the DeMark indicators, we should see more upside but it looks capped based on the TD Sequential counts on some primary timeframes around the daily. Unless we see a selloff that breaks under the previous low at 3440.45, watch the the 2 hour SPX along with the 2 day SPX timeframes. From there, things can get bumpy when these timeframes reach their designated price exhaustion signals.


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