Monday, November 18, 2019

SPX - PastAs of the close of last Friday’s session, the daily S&P 500 (SPX) so far has an uninterrupted 26 closes without recording a single price flip. This is somewhat reminiscent of the beginning of January 2017 (chart above) where the daily SPX recorded 19 closes without a price flip. Back then, the count was TD Sell Setup @9 + 10 before selling off in dramatic fashion. While the present market may or may not follow that analog, the market is building a case of a decent pullback.

SPX - 3 day

3 Day S&P 500 (SPX)
TD Sell Setup @9 (Active)
TD Sell Countdown @13 (November 8, 2019)
TD Combo Sell @13 (Active)


Here are the updated charts and this time, some timing can now be assigned. The three day SPX is currently on track to record a TD Sell Setup @9, and as long as Monday’s close is above 3120.46, is on track to record a TD Combo Sell @13. The counts are expected to be completed at the close of Monday’s session.

SPX - 2 day

2 Day S&P 500 (SPX)
TD Sell Setup @9 + 4 (One close above TD Risk Level 3103.49)
TD Sell Countdown @10
TD Combo Sell @11


The two day SPX has recorded the first close above the TD Risk Level at 3103.49. One more close above 3103.49 on a two day basis should validate a continuation of TD Sell Setup. However, given the active TD Sell Setup has a count of 9 plus 4, and TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell are nearing price exhaustion levels, TD Risk Level will not be assigned strict adherence in this case.

SPX - Daily

Consolidation past due
TD Sell Setup @9 + 17
TD Sell Countdown @13 (October 25, 2019)
TD Combo Sell @12


Taking into account the 3 day and 2 day SPX timeframes, here is the perfect scenario for a reversal. Note the daily SPX is approaching the TD Trend Factor at 3135.94 just as TD Combo Sell is one count short of a 13. If Monday’s session can produce a high of 3135.94, and close between 3120.46 (precious day close) and 3135.94, that will record TD Combo Sell @13 on the daily. The following trading session, ideally the SPX would need to close below 3103.49, the 2 day TD Risk Level, and not close above it on a 2 day basis. Whether this happens on Monday or another day during the trading week, the main takeaway is the relationship between the daily SPX recording a TD Combo Sell @13 and the 3135.94 TD Trend Factor.

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 3022.55 on Friday, November 22, 2019
TD Sell Setup @4
TD Sell Countdown (not active)
TD Combo Sell @4

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2980.38 on Friday, November 30, 2019
TD Sell Setup @3
TD Sell Countdown (not active)
TD Combo Sell @2

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