Monday, May 15, 2017

The daily S&P 500 (SPX) ended the week weaker, but it’s resolving in a tight range which sets up for another bullish spurt. However, the TD counts are maturing on the daily and the weekly SPX. The TD Trend Factor at 2432.98 still remains a viable target in 2-3 weeks. Looking at the related daily indices, Russell 2000 (RUT) and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), they also both support the SPX. The RUT’s TDST Support at 1349.43 remains as a solid line of price support. The COMP is undisputedly bullish, and the weekly chart (not shown) nearly coincides with the weekly SPX for price exhaustion in a few weeks. If the SPX begins to probe below 2348.69 (weekly SPX price flip) this week, a different stance will be taken.RUT - DailySPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if four hour SPX closes below 2383.89 or bullish if four hour SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

SPX - 4hour


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if daily SPX closes above 2396.92 on Monday, May 15, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2348.69 on Friday, May 19, 2017

SPX - Weekly


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017


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5 Responses to Monday, May 15, 2017

  1. Gary says:

    Art, how do the charts look for this play? Dollar continues weak and the commodity/materials stocks which have sold off in a big way reach selling exhaustion and are primed for a reversal back up.

  2. Gary says:

    One other question: in order for the TDST line to be broken in a qualified manner, do we need to see a break below the line (perhaps today), a move back up above it, and then a second break below? Which would then suggest that we are going to see a full sell countdown ’13’?

    • Art says:

      This is what is reading so far: The $DXY has room to go lower and stay long term positive. Some commodity stocks may have found a floor, but the XLB has not shown a more comprehensive selloff.

      In regards to the TDST Support – especially the 4 hour SPX, trading below the TDST and closing below and inability to close above it in 2-3 sessions in bearish. If there is a close above the TDST in the subsequent 2-3 sessions, expect a rally, retest, and rally. Trade below and close above the TDST is bullish.

      Today’s action seems very reactive, but if we close near the lows today, I’m thinking more malaise may follow.

  3. Trading4NandS says:

    Hi Art,

    This might seem like a really stupid question, but for the TDST Support and Resistance levels, are you strictly using the 9-count to determine those levels?

    For example, for a bearish price flip and a new TD Setup starts (security declining) and it completes through the 9-count, then the high of Count-1 is TDST Resistance, and if the TD Setup Buy completes through the 9-count and then has a bullish price flip, then the low of count-9 is then becomes TDST Support?

    Is the TDST Support/Resistance only valid for price flips and completed 9-counts?

    What invalidates a TDST Support/Resistance level, a completed TD Sequential, with a completed TD Countdown?

    I assume TD S/R levels work on any time-frame?

    Thx for your insight. Btw, your blog is awesome. I read it every week.

    Cheers, Mike

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    • Art says:

      That’s correct. Every 9 counts produces a new TDST Support or Resistance. In your example, the TDST resistance doesn’t necessarily have to start at count 1, but any count that produces the true high. Also, even the previous day’s close (before count 1) can count as a true high if count 1 was a gap lower. That is illustrated in the weekly SPX chart in the previous post.

      Yes that TDST Support/Resistance is only produced with completed 9 counts, and it is invalidated with a reverse price flip before completing a 9 count. It can be applied to any time frame. I sometimes swap TDST Support/Resistance timeframes. Thanks!

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