Monday, May 1, 2017

Since last Monday’s April 24 rally on the S&P 500 (SPX), there was high probability the daily SPX would easily record a TD Sell Setup @9. Going into this week, suddenly it is not all that convincing. The daily SPX would need to record a higher close on Monday’s session at 2388.61 to keep the TD Sell Setup active. If it is unable to record a TD Sell Setup @9, that will show signs the SPX is getting weary. The Russell 2000 (RUT) already priced flipped bearish last Friday. The market may fall/trade sideways from here, regroup, and rally to new highs before a larger correction commences. This scenario will support the weekly SPX as it nears 13’s on TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell. Didn’t note this up until now, but the daily SPX sneakily recorded a TD Sell Countdown @13 last Tuesday, April 25, which is showing mild significance so far.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 2388.61 on Monday, May 1, 2017

SPX - Daily


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes below 2355.54 on Friday, May 5, 2017

SPX - Weekly

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2278.87 on Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SPX - Monthly

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4 Responses to Monday, May 1, 2017

  1. Gary says:

    Although it seems nothing will stop this market, I note that according to my calculations, daily ‘9’ sell setups have occurred concurrently in Amazon, Facebook, Tesla, Apple, Google, Microsoft and Netflix, while the VIX has recently registered a daily buy setup. Will Monday prove to be a true “sell the news” event should Macron win?

    • Art says:

      That is correct. There are many TD Sell Setup 9’s on those Nasdaq stocks. Some have topped out and some counts are ‘unperfected’ since the 8 or 9 counts are not the true highs in the series. For these tech stocks, I’ll watch for relative underperformance. For a Macron win, I’m on the side if any ‘sell on the news’ occurs, it would be short lived.

      I remember a comment DeMark made by associating TD Sequential to the VIX. Personally, I generally ignore them since the VIX acts more like an oscillator.

      • Gary says:

        As always, very helpful Art. Let me ask you a question. If you were managing money, would you put it to work in the market right now, knowing we only 1-2% away from the Trend Factor level? Or would you wait as a 3-5% correction is a real possibility once the Index reaches that point (assuming it does)?

      • Art says:

        Only if it made sense from a TD perspective. Initiating new positions from those you mentioned can probably wait.

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