Here is Wayne Whaley’s Nov 19 – Jan 19 studies, which is now presented annually. Wayne Whaley is a former recipient of the Charles Dow award using statistical analysis to gain an edge. While he develops quite a few studies, we picked up his Nov 19 – Jan 19 performance barometer to help determine market direction for the remainder of the year.By measuring the S&P 500 (SPX) performance from November 19 – January 19, results has some predictive value for the remainder of the year. Positive performances of 3% or more resulted in gains in the SPX every year since 1950 except for one – The crash of 1987. Gains between 0 – 3% has shown mixed results, but positive for the most part. Negative performances generally shows negative results. Looking back to the results for 2016, the November 19 – January 19 performance recorded a negative 9.71%, but the SPX almost managed a double digit return, going against the statistical consensus. Currently for 2017, the November 19 – January 19 performance recorded a result of 3.75%, which surmises a positive 2017. With the monthly TD_Squeeze (see monthly SPX chart) indicating higher prices, and the potential rollback of financial regulations, the support for a positive 2017 is there. However, the one derailment of performance results of 3% or more occurred during the crash of 1987. Although equities can be considered inexpensive, and economic performance is generally positive, the market just seems one balloon pop away from something drastic.
For the current TD markers, the SPX continue to creep up to the 2323.89 TD Trend Factor. The daily SPX is close to recording a TD Sell Countdown @13 that may finally trigger something other than a trading range, and break a few TDST Support levels.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2278.87 (daily price flip) on Monday, February 6, 2017
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if daily SPX closes below 2278.87 on Monday, February 6, 2017
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2274.64 on Friday, February 10, 2017
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2126.15 on Tuesday, February 28, 2017