Monday, August 29, 2016

The S&P 500 (SPX) did not meet the criteria for the 9/13/13 trifecta last week. In fact the weekly drop was deep enough to cancel the TD Sell Setup. This leaves TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell, which their respective 13’s are deferred until their objective rules are met. In addition to the SPX, which we will get to below, the Nasdaq indices and the RUT are also aligned to meet price exhaustion on the weekly charts.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 10.15.10 PMFrom the Nasdaq (COMPQ) weekly chart, TD Sell Setup has recorded a ‘perfected’ count, meaning the recorded 8 count could be the true high of the entire TD Sell Setup sequence of counts 1 through 9. As long as this week’s COMPQ closing bar is above 5221.12, the market is free to sell off. Note that if the closing bar is 5221.12 or below this week, the COMPQ is still free to sell off but won’t be defined by any TD counts, and observing TD Counts of related indices would practically be mandatory.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 10.33.05 PMFrom then small cap Russell 2000 (RUT) index, the first of three price exhaustion signals has been recorded. TD Combo Sell @13 was recorded on Friday, July 29, 2016, which provides the first mark where a selloff may commence. The other two signals, TD Sell Setup and TD Sell Countdown are one count away from achieving a respective 9 and 13 price exhaustion point.

If the SPX, COMPQ and the RUT can produce another high this week, we can officially begin the consolidation process, which can be long and drawn out until the November elections. More on that next week when the August month closes in a few days.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2168.50 on Monday, August 29, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 7.32.04 PMIt’s the same level as last week. The August 17th low print of 2168.50 is used to define as the level to switch to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 7.37.18 PMNeutral since it is not worth looking at the long side with TD Counts just one count away from 13’s and it would be too early to tell if any selloff would be the beginning of a bear trend.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2065.03 on Wednesday, August 31, 2016. 


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6 Responses to Monday, August 29, 2016

  1. Trading4NandS says:

    Art,

    The SPY weekly is still maintaining it’s 9 and 13 counts respectively, even though the $SPX is not. Interesting disrepancy.

    Mike

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

  2. Ann Lurie Berlin says:

    Thank you. Best, Ann

  3. Bernardo says:

    Could you pls refresh the data?

    • Art says:

      To record a TD Sell Countdown @13 and TD Combo Sell @13 on the weekly SPX, Friday’s close needs to be higher than 2184.05, and a high needs to be at 2193.81 or higher. If this happens, this will strengthen the case for the beginning of market weakness. Anything else needs to be evaluated.

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