Monday, May 2, 2016

Continuing on gold’s ascent from the Monday, March 21, 2016 post, GLD (SPDR Gold ETF) is appearing to recycle its TD counts on the daily chart. After a minor pullback which GLD never closed below the designated 115.86 TDST Support Level, it is now powering through new highs, and this should continue. Note that on the daily chart, 13’s were recorded, in particular TD Sell Countdown. Considering the TD Sell Countdown @13 were recorded inside of the range of the previous TD Sell Setup, this is a low probability 13 and it should be ignored. On the weekly chart, GLD moves to TD Sell Countdown, suggesting the uptrend is firmly in place – all due to the global central bank quagmire. Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.40.25 PMScreen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.06.10 PM

For the equity markets, the recent selloff has been on a minor scale. However, with the anticipation that volatility will increase, the near and intermediate term outlook is bearish. Big economic reports this week include European and China PMI’s and US job numbers.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2076.14 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 8.58.51 PMThe technical difficulties from last week has been addressed. An inadvertent TD Sell Setup was recorded which threw all levels off course. However, the problem was not large enough to change the outlook. Currently the TDST Support is at 2010.04. That’s the level which will determine bull/bear polarity.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2091.70.

Screen Shot 2016-04-30 at 9.08.11 PMFollow the price flips. Bullish flips are neutral and bearish flips are bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 2047.60 on Friday, May 6, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 6.57.39 PMIt is possible the weekly SPX is simply going through a consolidation before powering higher. But since the price exhaustion ingredients are present, we’ll stay with the bearish signal that is given.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.29 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1940.24 on Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-29 at 6.27.29 PMThe monthly SPX is still going through a set of alternating price flips. Until the key levels are breached, the outlook will remain neutral.


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7 Responses to Monday, May 2, 2016

  1. Gary says:

    Art, I’m not understanding “However, an aggressive bearish approach is taken with the assumption volatility will increase.” Do you mean, “…an aggressive bearish approach can be taken…”? This sentence and the previous one, i.e., “the selloff is not serious” seem contradictory, but I may be missing something. Thanks –

    For the equity markets, the selloff is not serious. However, an aggressive bearish approach is taken with the assumption volatility will increase. Big economic reports this week include European and China PMI’s and US job numbers.

  2. Gary says:

    Art, indicators are playing out as you suggested. Am I right in surmising we reach a ‘9’ exhaustion by end of day today (Wednesday)?

    • Art says:

      Are you talking about the 4hour SPX? The counts are TD Buy Setup@2, so it just going again starting today. The other timeframes are on track and uninterrupted since the last post.

  3. Gary says:

    Sorry, yes the 4 hour count. If I looked at the weekend chart, it looked like there was an existing TD Buy Setup ‘3’ count, and assuming each 4 hour segment (from start of trading Monday) added to the count, we would reach ‘9’ by Wednesday. Could you clarify, Art? Thanks –

    • Art says:

      The 4 hour count was briefly interrupted. If the SPX continues to selloff, then it could reach TD Buy Setup @7 at the close. The daily should finish the week at TD Buy Setup @7 too.

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