Monday, April 25, 2016

Continuing on both the Nasdaq (COMP) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) weekly charts from last week, the Nasdaq count has been fulfilled in terms of a ‘perfected’ count with bar 8’s higher high. However, if the Nasdaq should selloff this week, it would be likely the active TD Sell Setup will be cancelled if the weekly close is below 4914.54. On the RUT, a qualified TD Sell Setup @9 is recorded, making it more vulnerable to a selloff. Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.03.53 AMScreen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.12.17 AM

Regarding the equity markets as a whole, there is nothing concrete to say a significant selloff is underway. The missing narrative is the big down candle. That’s for the medium term. The bigger picture suggests the S&P 500 (SPX) 1810.10 low on February 11, 2016, is history and the next big move is to the upside. The breadth of the market rally has been substantial and supports higher prices. Fed day comes this Wednesday and that is the focus for direction.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: 

Apologies for not posting this timeframe. There are bugs in the 4 hour chart, and it is not reading correctly. I should be able to resolve this soon.  


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2100.80.

Screen Shot 2016-04-24 at 11.36.05 AMConsidering the SPX close came less than a point of the TD Trend Factor and the weekly close did not close above the 2104.27 TDST Resistance level, Friday’s bearish price flip will receive the benefit of the doubt. Any reverse bullish price flip this week will revert the outlook back to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if weekly SPX closes below 2072.78 on Friday, April 29, 2016

Screen Shot 2016-04-22 at 8.27.59 PMIn the bulls favor, the higher high and close beyond the “9” count TD Sell Setup indicates the trend still has momentum. For the waiting bears, the inability to establish a close above the TDST Resistance at 2104.27 keeps the current outlook as cautious. A close below 2072.78 will swing the outlook to negative.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Friday, April 29, 2016. 


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