Monday, March 14, 2016

A full Fed meeting this week with the Janet Yellen Q&A press conference. What she says will help shape what policy decisions may come in the future. For equity performance, the current setup is for eventual further gains, but better buying opportunities will come in time. This will be the base case as long as the global picture continues to normalize or for the purpose of this blog – the monthly TD Buy Setups in various charts (emerging markets, crude oil, Russell 2000, etc.) continues to hold.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if four-hour SPX closes below 1979.26, same as daily price flip. 

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.47.42 PMSince the short term SPX is locked in an uptrend, any neutral stance will be the lowest bearish price flip level close between the daily or four hour SPX chart.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 1979.26.

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.50.02 PMWith the daily SPX in TD Sell Countdown, expectations are for the SPX to continue trending upwards to the 2078.36 TDST Resistance.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 1.51.19 PMIn hindsight, stamping a “buy” right at the initial bullish price flip would have been beneficial. But at this juncture, holding cash and wait for patterns to unfold makes more sense.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 


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4 Responses to Monday, March 14, 2016

  1. vince says:

    Hi Art,

    Enjoy your weekly posts. I noticed that the think or swim sequence counter is giving different td count results than your 4 hr chart. Do you know where I could find a faithful version of TD sequential and combo for think or swim?

    • Art says:

      Hi- I just brought up the sequence counter for the four hour chart and everything matches for TD Sequential. Could it be you were looking at something else? Sequence counter is not perfect, but either what I incorporated.

  2. vince says:

    On the 4hr SPX chart, where you have the up arrows for Mon and Wed, with the bars labeled 13, I don’t see the up arrows or the 13 count on think or swim. Do you know what the discrepancy is?

    BTW, there was a daily sell on crude oil and gold futures and they’ve both worked beautifully.

    • Art says:

      Ok. I understand now. I use my own TD indicators, which is different than the sequence counter on TOS. It’s still a work in progress.

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