Monday, March 7, 2016

In 2014, 2015, both Crude Oil and the US Dollar Index broke to exaggerated levels as the monthly TTM Squeeze (Keltner/Bollinger relationship) suggested. Those moves created indecisions for US equities such as the S&P 500 (SPX). Equity markets were pushed to a peak and formed a topping process. However, low oil prices, rising US Dollar, and the lack of demand for raw materials did not correlate into a persistent downtrend. Equities simply hung around. All this ‘hanging around’ is now bringing the bull view back into play. With the monthly TTM_Squeeze on the SPX firmly in place, the next upside breakout has just as much explosive potential as a 2007 style decline.

There has been chatter about negative rates coming to the US. While unlikely, Janet Yellen says it can happen. Judging from the CBOE 10 year Treasury Index, it may be a while longer before rates get any lower. The weekly chart shows a quality bullish price flip occurring right after an ‘unperfected’ TD Buy Setup @9, and doing so above the monthly TDST Support level at 16.14 or 1.614%. Keep watch on the next Fed meeting in two weeks. This will help determine further positioning in regards to all markets. Break above the weekly TDST Resistance at 2.27%, then the fundamental shift towards higher rates may stay. Screen Shot 2016-03-06 at 5.27.14 PM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if four-hour SPX closes below 1993.28. 

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 10.21.04 PMWith the active TD Sell Setup at a ‘perfected’ 8 count trading around the SPX 2000 round number, natural profit taking should be expected. However, transition to TD Sell Countdown remains viable, especially if any selling gets bought up.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if daily SPX closes below 1978.35.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 10.07.57 PMVery similar to the four hour chart, the current daily TD Sell Setup has been ‘perfected’ and we’ll give some respect to the overhead 2078.36 TDST Resistance. More sideways trading is expected at this point. Any bearish flip will change the outlook to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 9.54.55 PMIf the long term trading range stays true, the reference boundaries are between the TDST lines at 1850.61 and  2078.36 to 2104.27.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if monthly SPX closes above 2107.39 or Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Thursday, March 31, 2016. 

Screen Shot 2016-02-29 at 9.28.09 PMGiving both sides a chance to succeed this month. Note the chart below is as of February 29, 2016.


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One Response to Monday, March 7, 2016

  1. Gary says:

    Excellent work as always, Art – thanks.

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