Thursday, February 25, 2016

QUICK UPDATE: Stunning mid-day swings. There is a lot of ambiguity out there for the S&P 500 (SPX), but considering related indices have completed TD Buy Setups, inclination for any selling is to be contained – Unless SPX 1850.61 breaks.

As an addendum to this post, DeMark was on CNBC presenting his 3 Terrifying Charts, which really isn’t terrifying at all. His third analog chart shows sideways, range bound trading, with one more low, followed by a run to new highs. That is the chart that fairly mimics our primary case where the overt bullish sentiment is washed away through time, rather than price. Here’s the link: Shot 2016-02-24 at 8.36.25 PM

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6 Responses to Thursday, February 25, 2016

  1. Gary says:

    Art, I would add that if you listen carefully to his comments, he says 90% of his indicators indicate a bottom is already in, it’s the other 10% that have him believing there will be one more wash out low (1780-90 on the SP500).

    Normally a 90/10 split like this would have you leaning decidedly bullish; wonder what lies in the pool of 10% indicators that has gotten Tom so spooked.

    • Art says:

      His price objective to 17xx was never met as I recall. Typically he is referring to TD Trend Factor. Why close enough is not good enough probably speaks about his obsession with markets. Placing a price objective after months of zig zagging seems pointless to me. Then again, he has the resources in his little lab in Scottsdale that are constantly finding ways to reverse engineer the markets. There has not been an update to his books for years, and I’m sure he has indicators that are not known to us.

  2. Les says:

    The current market also has similar price action to 2001 and 2008, the end of two two-term presidents. The other one, 1960, has already been discarded. Eventually, analogies fail and I expect the others to fail as well (very few years on the index page for the following link meet a high correlation to the current market)..

    • Art says:

      Thanks. Not a big fan of analog charts, but they are are fascinating to watch in motion.

    • will says:

      you forgot about Reagan2x? Also of note, Clinton technically last year was 2000 not 2001.

      On the stock side – the price action in 2001 is interesting as you have an low early in the year and a rally to the 200 dma. Then drift to lower for a few months, with an eventual undercut of the previous low by about 13-14%.

      Present day would take us to about 2020 spx and eventual undercut to the 1575 range by year end.

      Art – love the blog. Keep up the good work!

    • Les says:

      The action in the Dow Jones Utilities is also very similar to 2000-2001 and 2007-2008.

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