Monday, February 8, 2016

Even though the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) has been taking some huge hits lately, chart wise, it is very similar to the S&P 500 (SPX). From the weekly chart, the Nasdaq just needs to ‘perfect’ the existing TD Buy Setup by recording a print at 4313.39 or lower. Chances are, it will do so above the marked TDST Support level at 4075.70. Much like the SPX’s 1850.61 TDST Support level, this provides some clues that an all out bear market is not ready to begin just yet. Besides the Nasdaq, there are many related indices such as XOI, JNK, EEM, PEK that are recording 9’s and 13’s on their respective weekly and monthly charts.  Screen Shot 2016-02-06 at 9.17.37 AM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if four -hour SPX closes above 1915.18. 

Screen Shot 2016-02-06 at 9.02.18 AMThe SPX could not breakaway from the 1934.47 TDST Resistance level. Looking forward, it looks like it may try again as TD Buy Countdown and TD Combo Buy are approaching 13’s.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if daily SPX closes below 1850.61. 

Screen Shot 2016-02-06 at 8.46.30 AMA bullish counter-trend rally could not materialize. Therefore, it is back to the beginning and watching to see if the 1850.61 can hold.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if weekly SPX closes above 1880.33 on Friday, February 12, 2016.

Screen Shot 2016-02-06 at 8.31.25 AMNothing has really changed over the course of last week’s trading. The bearish momentum is still intact. However, the weekly SPX is still holding above the 1850.61 TDST Support level, which favors the bullish side.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if monthly SPX closes below 1850.61, the weekly TDST Support level on Monday, February 29, 2016. 


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9 Responses to Monday, February 8, 2016

  1. Gary says:

    Thanks as always, Art. With regards to your comment “…‘perfect’ the existing TD Buy Setup [on the Nasdaq] by recording a print at 4313.39 or lower”, I just want to confirm that in regards the S&P 500 TD Buy Setup, it has already been perfected. Am I correct?

    If so, it’s interesting that both indexes are at a possible (likely?) point of reversing upwards, with the ETFs you mention also the same.

    • Art says:

      Yes. The weekly SPX has a qualified 9 count TD Buy Setup, so it’s one step ahead ahead of the Nasdaq. Since this is happening above their respective TDST Support levels, the bet is we are looking at the lows in around the current price and we should see some level of buying interest at the least. Thanks Gary.

  2. Gary says:

    So we should bottom here in these first four hours, if the TD Buy Combo and Countdown 13’s work properly?

    • Art says:

      Depends on your level of aggression. Personally, I like to watch the close, and see where it ends up.

      • Gary says:

        I’m the same way as you. I think Tom has always said you need a “price flip” to feel comfortable a bottom has been reached. If we print a close below 1850.61 today, does that turn “the charts” more bearish, and sort of take a rebound off the table?

      • Art says:

        It would definitely be more bearish, but a rebound still exists if the closing print can stay in close ( ~5 points) proximity to 1850.61.

  3. Gary says:

    Art, I read somewhere that Tom DeMark is looking at 1770 for a price target. Have you heard same and/or understand why he might be looking at that level? 5.5% Trend factor down?

  4. Gary says:

    That number came from someone on my Twitter stream and unlikely I can find it – next time, I won’t throw out a DeMark number without referencing the source. To that point, please see:

    Tom Demark is calling a bottom in stocks and oil within the next couple of trading days: https://t.co/S6aBCyi700

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