It’s January 2016, and the S&P 500 (SPX) performance in that month is the most important barometer for the reminder of the year. In about three weeks, the Wayne Whaley Nov 2015 – Jan 2016 will be released. The track record is uncanny, and we’ll continue to use it to determine 2016 market performance. In the meantime, the bias is still for the SPX to test the weekly TDST Support at 1850.61. From there, more backing and filling, but judging from the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) chart, all bets are the table for both a huge rally or a crushing loss.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral again if SPX closes above 2062.28
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if SPX closes below 2018.94 either Monday or Tuesday.
A lot of energy is spent going sideways. Even though a TD Buy Setup is active, waiting for another break under the viable 2018 TDST Support will give the bearish side a better chance of sustainability to the downside.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Flipping to Neutral if SPX closes above 2012.37 on Friday, January 8, 2016.
This is the week. A close below 2012.37 will make a statement that the 1850.61 TDST Support will be tested. This is the preferred since it makes it easier to time a reversal. Failure to close below 2012.37 will signal more directionless chop.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Neutral until further notice.
It’s now month number three for the TTM_Squeeze. The sweet spot for the monthly SPX to end the rally was back in April to August, 2014. With all that surplus gains since that time, the SPX needs to work off all that excess by either continuing to waver back and forth for many months more, or begin to slide starting this month.