Monday, December 14, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-12-11 at 9.57.33 PMA new world order is potentially in the works. While crude oil was predisposed for a disastrous year, OPEC gave it another catalyst for even lower prices by stripping away production quotas. How much longer can this persist? Per TD counts, the current TD Setups/Combos have not matured to a point where price exhaustion is a concern. The monthly counts have just swung into TD Buy Countdown mode as shown in the chart above. For the S&P 500 (SPX), the commencing selloff looks promising to at least re-test the weekly TDST Support at 1850.61.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Back to neutral if SPX closes above 2052.42 at the close today. 

Screen Shot 2015-12-11 at 8.22.50 PMA bona fide TD Buy Setup currently on bar 8. Expectations are for a reversal bounce on Monday. During the trading week, if the bounce fails to break above the former four hour TDST Support level at 2034.18, consider that bearish. If it does break, the short term trend is mildly bearish. If it continues to hold above the TDST level, consider it neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Back to neutral if SPX closes above 2063.59. 

Screen Shot 2015-12-11 at 8.11.25 PMThe daily TDST Support at 2018.94 has been breached. While it would not be unusual to see the SPX trade above the TDST level before resuming the selloff, expectations are high for the active TD Buy Setup to follow through a ‘9’ count. Inability to achieve a recorded TD Buy Setup would lead to more range trading misery.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2023.04 on Friday, December 18, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-12-11 at 6.31.29 PMIt’s technically bearish in this timeframe, and we’ll go with that trend and initially target that 1850.61 weekly TDST Support level. If the Fed decision coming this Wednesday is bull friendly, we’ll take a quicker than normal approach to change to neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.


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