Monday, December 7, 2015

Market volatility has been unleashed the last few trading sessions. While the S&P 500 (SPX) has been locked in neutral territory since the beginning of the year, the continuous failed rallies and dip buying has fueled the monthly SPX chart into the coiling stage as demonstrated by the Keltner/Bollinger relationship. (See the November 2, 2015 posting for more info on this). If charts can talk, they would say, “We are just going to hang around for awhile and wait for something to happen”. When it happens, the promise is it will either be an ugly selloff or an incredible rally.Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 8.49.29 PM

A look at the secondary indices such as the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) can provide initial directional clues for the SPX. On the daily Nasdaq, the two back to back TD Sell Setups has signaled upside price exhaustion, but each successive selloff has been brief. Although technically the selloff is still in motion, last Friday’s huge 2% rally places the Nasdaq on the cusp of yet another attempt of the all time highs. There is another reason to expect a deeper selloff, and that is from the ‘perfected’ TD Sell Setup @9 on the weekly Nasdaq. Since that 9 count hand has been dealt, we’ll have to assume a selloff is near. To refute that notion, a successful move to highs will lay down the probability that Nasdaq equities has switched over the bullish side as the weekly Nasdaq will transition to TD Sell Countdown, the trending component of TD Sequential. Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 8.43.01 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 8.47.54 PM


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2060.41 mid-session or 2049.98 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 7.50.18 PMStaying with the notion that bearish price flips are bearish and bullish price flips are neutral.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switching to bearish if SPX closes below the TDST Support level at 2018.94.

Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 8.43.01 PMThe alternating price flips last week are forcing a more conservative approach before going bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2015-12-04 at 7.44.13 PMWhile steadfast neutral, the probability of going bearish will rise considerably if the designated bearish price flip at 2023.04 is breached this week.

S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

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4 Responses to Monday, December 7, 2015

  1. Clinton Nyachieo says:

    Hi

    I just came across your site and am quite taken with your work. Am a budding trader still learning. Quick question what platform do you use? With the demark indicators. Am a demark fan myself having studied all his books. Keep up the good work.

    • Art says:

      Hi – It’s the TD Ameritrade/Think or Swim (TOS) platform. TOS has a built-in ‘Sequence Counter’ which mimics the TD Setup. As far as the other indicators, they were created using the thinkScript editor. Thanks!

      • Clinton Nyachieo says:

        Hi

        Thanks for your response :). Is the platform free like mt4? Also would you mind sharing your scripts? Particularly the td trend factor? I have been using td sequential for mt4 along with an excel spreadsheet to calculate the trend factor levels for confluence. Or better yet would you happen to have one lying around for metatrader? Keep up the good work.

        Kind regards

      • Art says:

        Yes, TOS is free and quite versatile. However, I do not have any scripts for TD Trend Factor. It’s not worth it anyways since I use it very sparingly for my purposes. At this point, I’m not at liberty to release any scripts for TD Sequential. Thanks for asking.

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