Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The Shanghai market took another leg lower as market reforms continues in China. Currently, they hold the major wildcard as to the global economic outlook., but so far, it’s all good. Their slowdown is part of the natural process of years of accelerated growth. A ‘soft landing’ provides stabilization in the markets. It offers more economic diversification. Although the recent China manufacturing PMI is still contracting, the China services PMI is stable. This is exactly what China wants – an increasing role in the consumer to get away from what China is known for – cheap exports. On the TD picture, the proxy for the Shanghai Index is the Market Vectors China A share ETF (PEK). The monthly PEK is showing an active TD Buy Setup @5. This indicates long term downward momentum. This momentum can be halted if PEK closes above 41.17 at the close of December 31, 2015. If successful, look for lots of backing and filling. Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 8.24.25 PM

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2089.14 (daily price flip) on December 1, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 8.33.47 PMBasic premise is bearish price flips are bearish and bullish price flips are neutral. Note the recent TD Sell Setup @9 has created a TDST Support at 2034.18.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Back to neutral is if SPX closes above 2089.14 on December 1, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 8.41.57 PMGiving the bear side the benefit of the doubt. Idea is to see if there SPX can at least close below the 4 hour TDST Support at 20134.18, then the daily TDST at 2018.94.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 8.44.15 PMAnother retest of the 1850.61 weekly TDST Support would be ideal before considering bullish scenarios.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-11-30 at 8.47.19 PMIf the SPX trades under 1972.18 during December, a bearish outlook will be considered.



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