Monday, November 16, 2015

The commodity complex weighed on equity markets last week with copper leading the way. By way of the monthly chart of the copper futures (HG), there is likely further downside before it can see some stabilization. If the current monthly TD Buy Setup @6 can record an ‘8’ or ‘9’ count in the next few months above the 1.506 TDST Support level, that’ll be the ideal point of stability. Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 11.26.46 PM

Also contributing to market volatility is the US Dollar Index (DXY). From the updated monthly chart, after achieving TD Sell Setup @9, the DXY spent a considerable amount of time in a tight trading range. With the new surge, TD Sell Countdown is now in force, which supports the notion the DXY is in a large cycle uptrend. Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 5.27.46 PM

The S&P 500 (SPX) is still locked in a trading range and will likely remain that way considering the SPX weekly TD Sell Setup has been cancelled. The shorter timeframes are bearish, and if the daily SPX can hover around the 2018.94 TDST Support level during the latter part of the week, the SPX may want to challenge the upside again. Otherwise, the 1850.61 Weekly TDST Support level may come into play once again.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes above 2058.64. 

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 7.34.23 PMThe selloff is in a bona fide downtrend, and has plenty of more ground to cover. The strategy now is to follow the price flips.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2081.72.

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 10.12.08 PMSelloff can get more serious if the SPX closes in two consecutive days below the 2018.94 TDST Support level.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 10.11.16 PMLast week’s closing candle was good enough to end the TD Sell Setup. The entire 2015 has been absent of any TD Setup, which validates the SPX will remain trendless in this timeframe. The 1850.61 TDST Support remains viable.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.


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