Monday, October 5, 2015

Last Friday’s Non-farm Payroll report missed estimates which supports a continuation of ZIRP. Equities also rallied and despite previous rallies where they were promptly sold off only to find support again near the bottom of the range. But after weeks of the same script, this rally will be more promising…


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral for now, but bias is to go long.

Screen Shot 2015-10-04 at 7.51.48 PMIf the active TD Sell Setup @6 records a ‘9’ under or in the 1979.64 – 1990.27 TDST resistance level range, we’ll expect a SPX selloff, but it should be buyable in the context of the daily and weekly charts showing price exhaustion TD Setups.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1884.09.

Screen Shot 2015-10-04 at 7.59.17 PMThough the recent TD Buy Setup @9 is not ‘perfected’, the daily SPX bullish price flip looks solid enough to take out the 1979.64 TDST Resistance level.


 S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice. 

Screen Shot 2015-10-04 at 8.03.23 PMLast week’s bar produced a reverse price flip just as the former TD Buy Setup was just about to record a ‘9’ count above the 1850.61 TDST Support. Not having a ‘9’ as a marker justifies a market that continues to be bounded in a trading range.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes above 2063.11 on Friday, October 30, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-10-03 at 11.09.03 AMSo far there has been two ’13’ price exhaustion signals in 2014. There has been a bearish price flip as recent as July of this year. The SPX is now trading under the 21 month moving average reference level and turning lower. The outlook is now officially bearish, but the my bias is for a directionless market for a while.


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