Last Friday’s Non-farm Payroll report missed estimates which supports a continuation of ZIRP. Equities also rallied and despite previous rallies where they were promptly sold off only to find support again near the bottom of the range. But after weeks of the same script, this rally will be more promising…
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Neutral for now, but bias is to go long.
If the active TD Sell Setup @6 records a ‘9’ under or in the 1979.64 – 1990.27 TDST resistance level range, we’ll expect a SPX selloff, but it should be buyable in the context of the daily and weekly charts showing price exhaustion TD Setups.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1884.09.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Neutral until further notice.
Last week’s bar produced a reverse price flip just as the former TD Buy Setup was just about to record a ‘9’ count above the 1850.61 TDST Support. Not having a ‘9’ as a marker justifies a market that continues to be bounded in a trading range.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes above 2063.11 on Friday, October 30, 2015.
So far there has been two ’13’ price exhaustion signals in 2014. There has been a bearish price flip as recent as July of this year. The SPX is now trading under the 21 month moving average reference level and turning lower. The outlook is now officially bearish, but the my bias is for a directionless market for a while.