Monday, September 28, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 8.54.17 PM Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 9.02.25 PMOf all the major indices, the Russell 2000 (RUT) is in a downtrend, as represented by the active TD Sequential count. If we were to look for price support for the other indices, the RUT daily and weekly charts can help. On the daily chart, the first of three price exhaustion signals has been recorded with TD Buy Countdown @13. The other signal may come Wednesday or Thursday of next week as the current TD Buy Setup is nearing completion. This could post a solid counter trend rally. However, for the third and final price exhaustion signal, TD Combo Buy will come into the mix only when the 1102.58 low is broken. But if the low is breached, any rally should be considered temporary. This reasoning is better explained on the weekly RUT. A recorded weekly TD Buy Setup @9 has been recorded and followed up with a rally. Currently, the rally has officially been negated with the recent price bar recording a bearish price flip. This sets up TD Buy Countdown and a TD Buy Setup renewal, which signals more selling, all due to the low being taken out.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 7.52.35 PMNote the range of the recently recorded TD Buy Setup @9 is smaller than the range of the prior TD Buy Setup @9. This would only have significance if TD Buy Countdown did not finish. Since there is a recorded ’13’ on the TD Buy Countdown, the new, emerging TD Buy Countdown, currently on count ‘2’, is considered active.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Neutral until further notice.

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 8.23.07 PMA close above 1942.74 today will solidify the neutral bias. Even if the SPX continues lower and records a TD Buy Setup ‘9’, it would likely record in the area of the previous low at 1867.01 providing natural support.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1921.22 on Friday, October 2, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-09-25 at 8.32.04 PMThis is the week where downside momentum needs to resume in order to keep the weekly SPX TD Buy Setup alive. If it terminates with a close above 1921.22, expect the trading range to continue on a larger scale.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2107.39 or bearish if SPX closes below 1972.18 on Wednesday, September 30, 2015.


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