Monday, August 31, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-08-29 at 9.31.10 AMThe prospect of rising US interest rates is forcing gold to sell off. Using the monthly gold spiders ETF (GLD) chart, it initially appeared gold would bottom after completing a ‘perfected’ TD Buy Setup (December 31, 2013) above the 106.24 TDST support level. With the uncertainty about interest rates, gold has gone sideways to lower, and it is testing the TDST Support level. Another trip below 106.24 would open the door to more redemptions in GLD. Screen Shot 2015-08-29 at 9.45.13 AMScreen Shot 2015-08-29 at 10.09.20 AMScreen Shot 2015-08-29 at 10.09.30 AMRelated to gold is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Chartwise, GDX looks similar to GLD. However the levels are different. From the monthly GDX, the TDST Support level has already been broken at 44.41, which now leads to locating price exhaustion levels long term. Currently, it appears a price low could be in store in 2016, but there is a chance for GDX to put together a decent rally in the interim. The weekly GDX chart shows a completed TD Buy Setup @9 (July 24, 2015) and it is holding off the low so far. The daily GDX is much more evident. It has a triple cluster of blue arrows consisting of a pair of 13’s and a reverse price flip. Expect the next catalyst to come at the next Fed meeting on September 17th.

For the S&P 500 (SPX), it appears the SPX will keep continue looping in an expanding trading range.

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bearish if SPX closes below 1987.84 mid-session or 1987.58 at the close.

Screen Shot 2015-08-30 at 8.12.53 PMSPX 2051.40, the scene of the former TDST Support is a viable target as long as the 4 hour TD Sell Setup remains active.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1867.61, the reverse price flip. 

Screen Shot 2015-08-30 at 8.15.12 PMOn the SPX daily chart, it cannot record a full 9 count TD Buy Setup despite the volatility. This indicates more backing and filling.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2077.57 on Friday, September 4, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-08-30 at 8.16.55 PMThe weekly chart managed a long hammer candlestick right above the 1850.61 TDST Support level, furthering expectations the SPX will not cascade lower next week. However, the TD By Setup is still active and that is the primary barometer.

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