With the July month end, the monthly S&P 500 (SPX) is transitioning from upside momentum to sideways price action. Given the monthly Nasdaq Composite (COMP) and the monthly Russell 2000 (RUT) are showing different price paths, corrections are likely to be rotational through various sectors until all the bullish overbought excesses moderate…or a quick swift price correction takes hold. The Nasdaq from a TD perspective is clearly recycling higher as the late 2014 “13’s” has not materialized in halting the uptrend. On the other end, The RUT has produced a bearish price flip as momentum has waned. Note it is one count away form a completed TD Sell Countdown 13.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Bullish if close is above 2108.50 midday or above 2109.00 at the close.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bullish consideration if daily SPX closes above 2124.35 on any day of the week. Bearish if SPX closes below the 4 hour TDST Support at 2051.40 by Tuesday’s August 4, 2015 close.
Although a bearish price flip will occur if SPX closes below 2093.25 on the close of Monday, August 3, it won’t be enough to challenge the neutral outlook. The TD Trend Factor is serving as a good gauge as a bull/bear level.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if SPX closes below 2076.62 on Friday, August 7, 2015.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Neutral until further notice.