Monday, July 13, 2015

Plenty of action in the markets since late May, but a long term trading range in the S&P 500 is the primary prognostication. For the S&P 500 charts below, the primary timeframe of interest is the weekly chart. The TTM_Squeeze is firmly in place. This is representative of bullish market traders who are positioning long by buying the dips and bearish market traders who are shorting the market. Breakouts from designated support or resistance levels should be taken seriously.

Aside: Even though I take fairly long trading breaks, I always take a trade here and there while I’m away. This year was different. I took a trip abroad to Seoul, but right before I left, my laptop logic board blew up, and I was forced to be completely off the grid. Although I was aware of what was happening with Greece and China, I was void of any charts. Without the influence of any charting functions, and even CNBC, I feel truly refreshed side arriving back in the US. For anyone is who considers himself an active trader should implement regular trading breaks – longer the better. (Thanks for the comments)


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes above 2085.57, the daily TDST Support level. 

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.48.13 PMThe short term SPX is in a congestion area where it will attempt to rally. Until it clears 2085.57, the best course action is to follow TD Sequential.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 2085.57, the recent daily TDST Support level.

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.47.59 PMSimilar to the 4 hour SPX chart, the TDST level has been violated to the downside. The one difference is the absence of TD Buy Setup counts. One evidence of at least a temporary rebound is the bounce right at the 127% Fibonacci target. Note the TD Trend Factor is still technically valid since the SPX has not fallen more than 5.5% from the top.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 2109.99 on July 17, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.47.45 PMThis is probably the best timeframe to look at for clarity sake. The TD Buy Setup is in motion and one more lower low will set the minimum to qualify a potential 9 count TD Buy Setup and a subsequent rally. Note the TTM_Squeeze indicator is getting really extended, signaling a significant upside or downside move.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above the all time monthly closing high of 2107.39 on July 31, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-07-12 at 8.37.11 PMThe wait is over. For the first time since late 2012, a bearish price flip has been marked on the close of June, 2015. The default projection is the market needs to rest and carve a long duration trading range. Not considering a bearish outlook just yet. This stance can change if Europe becomes disorderly or if China decides to weaken the Renminbi.


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One Response to Monday, July 13, 2015

  1. R.M says:

    Welcome back
    Looking forward to your insights and comments

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