Monday, April 27, 2015

There is a FOMC meeting on tap this Wednesday. Economic reports have been soft lately, and the Fed may lean towards to dovish side, which will be supportive of stocks. The bearish thought is losing momentum, as the weekly S&P 500 is looking like the beginning of a full on breakout.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 2118.53 at session midpoint or 2113.06 at the close. 

Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.17.06 PMOn the short term SPX chart, the TD Sell Setup closed at bar 8, with the 2119.98 high less than bar 7’s 2120.92 high, making the TD Sell Setup unperfected. The expectation going forward is for another new high print to ‘perfect’ the count. What happens after this can help prognosticate longer time frames. Any retracement (closing bar) above the prior TD Resistance at 2107.72 is considered bullish. Trading above 2117.39, the daily TDST Resistance is considered super bullish.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor.

Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.23.04 PMAlthough there are two heavy resistance points to overcome (2117.39 and 2124.35), the daily is leaning towards the bullish end.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2066.96 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2124.35 (TD Trend Factor) on Friday, May 1, 2015.Screen Shot 2015-04-24 at 9.43.55 PMBy viewing the weekly chart, the new closing high is providing the look of a new breakout. With the vertical momentum bars on the TTM_Squeeze turning higher, the probability of a breakout with a completed TD Sell Setup is high.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015. 


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