To help determine direction for the S&P 500 (SPX), which has been mired rangebound for weeks, the Nasdaq (COMPQ) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) weekly charts offer additional help. The Nasdaq is locked in a neutral position. It completed a TD Combo Sell @13 back on November 21, 2014, which it followed up with a sideways correction of 11 weeks. When the TD Sell Countdown recorded a ’13” back on February 20, 2015, another sideways correction is currently in it’s 8th week. If Nasdaq closes below 4891.22 at the end of the week, there is a high possibility the sideways action is doing a trend shift lower. For the Russell 2000, the RUT completed a 9 count TD Sell Setup, and with the most recent bar recording a bearish price flip, the upward momentum is officially finished. If the Russell closes under 1240.41 this week, expect the RUT to challenge the TDST Support at 1153.79. If both of these indices breach their respective weekly levels, this should provide additional confirmation that SPX is turning bearish.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Neutral if SPX closes above 2105.22.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Bearish if SPX closes below 2046.74, the TDST Support.
The parameter for a bullish signal is pushed aside for the meantime. Since the battle is rangebound, for the aggressive trader that doesn’t mind risking multiple trade turnover, just follow the bullish or bearish price flips.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2061.02 or bullish if the SPX closes above 2119.59 (all-time high) on Friday, April 24, 2015.
The weekly SPX is still poised for a significant increase or decrease. The longer the TTM_Squeeze indicator stays red, it increases the chances for a signifiant rally or selloff. If the indicator spreads to the monthly chart, a bear market is in the cards, as well as a bullish runaway market.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Change to neutral if the monthly SPX closes below 2058.90 on April 30, 2015.