Monday, March 23, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 8.45.14 PM Screen Shot 2015-03-22 at 8.41.12 PMCrude oil may see some stability – at least temporarily. The daily chart is showing a double bottom notated by a pair of 13’s and just recently, a completed TD Buy Setup @9. However any bounce may translate into a prolong sideways trading, before a resumption of the slide in prices. A look at the monthly comparison chart shows contains plenty of information. The first supports the daily chart’s bounce as the monthly crude chart has completed a 9 count TD Buy Setup. However, the TTM_Squeeze’s momentum component may not have bottomed when comparing crude’s epic drop back in 2008. The interpretation is that any bounce is just setting up for further downside. Also note in the monthly chart, the slide in oil has not affected the correlation between crude and emerging market equities.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if the 4 hour SPX closes below 2089.57 today.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.14.01 PMThe signal for further upside has increased by the 2107.72 TDST Resistance upside breach.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2074.28 today. 

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.24.31 PMRetargeting the area where the 2117.39 TDST Resistance and the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor lies. Those  levels poses a nice resistance level for more sideways trading. Surpass them and a full 9 – 13 count TD Sequential would be expected.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Resume to bullish if SPX closes above 2104.50 on Friday, March 27, 2015.

Screen Shot 2015-03-21 at 7.29.52 PMAlthough the weekly trend is still sloping positive, the caution sign is the lack of continuity in the counts since the recorded 13’s back in late 2014. Typically the absence of recorded TD Setups portend to sideways price action.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 on March 31, 2015. 


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