Monday, March 2, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 11.14.05 PMA major shift is occurring in the currency market. With global central banks loosening monetary policy, their currencies are being weakened as a result and the US Dollar has turned higher. This trend will likely continue as global players are pressured to buy dollars. The technical picture also supports the fundamentals. Now that the US Dollar basket index (DXY) monthly chart has decisively broken out, the conclusion of February ended with a 9 count TD Sell Setup. Given the long sideways trading action (note the TTM_Squeeze), there is high probability TD Sell Countdown will ensue.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Back to bullish if 4 hour SPX closes above 2110.77 today.

Screen Shot 2015-02-27 at 11.41.00 PMWith the short term SPX exhibiting a minor selloff, eventually, there is likely to be more upside to fulfill the TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell counts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch back to neutral if daily SPX closes above 2124.35, the TD Trend Factor.

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.11.17 PMThe daily SPX completed a 9 count TD Sell Setup and the high came within’ 5 points from reaching the 2124.35 TD Trend Factor. The trend is still bullish, and any selloff will likely be contained. However, complacency can be harmful, which is why the current outlook is neutral, based off the bearish price flip of the most recent data point.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 2055.47 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2110.30 on March 6, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.26.55 PMThe weekly SPX is still on track for a TD Sequential 9-13-9 count. Although technically it violates the rules since the bullish price flip occurred before the 13 count of the finished TD Sell Countdown, the positive factors currently outweigh the negative.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if monthly SPX closes below 2067.56 by March 31, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-28 at 10.46.58 PMDespite coming close to flipping neutral the last two months, the monthly SPX keeps the seemingly infinite TD Sell counts going.


 

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