Monday, February 23, 2015

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 10.28.03 PM Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 10.37.41 PMThe power of the Keltner/Bollinger relationship as represented by the TTM_Squeeze indicator has been emphasized many times over. The most recent was oil and another one is setting up on the gold chart. Utilizing the GLD ETF as a proxy for gold, the horizontal dots on the TTM_Squeeze are currently red, stating gold is now coiling for a volatility move. At this point, the stage is set for a major bullish run, as both the daily and monthly charts are holding above their respective TDST Support levels. If that projection is incorrect, GLD should first selloff below 114.08 on the daily chart, and if 108.95 is violated on the monthly, that will be the first major confirmation, gold is about to take a major leg lower. Bear in mind, this scenario could months to play out.

On the equity markets, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX), the spotlight is now on the daily chart as it approaches a completed TD Sell Setup @9 today.  The weekly now has a bullish and bearish option.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 2097.50.

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.28.06 PMThe 4 hour SPX is in TD Sell Countdown mode. Look at the daily SPX chart for better clues of what is ahead.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 2097.50, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.33.34 PMNow with the TD Sell Setup closing in on a 9 count, just under the TD Trend Factor at 2124.35, a selloff of some magnitude is expected. Not much is expected as the sideways trading action since early December may not have played out in it’s entirety.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip to bearish if SPX closes below 1994.99 or flip to bullish if SPX closes above 2110.30 on February 27, 2015. 

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 9.50.48 PMA renewed bullish outlook is set. By simply following the TD Sell Setup, the motion is set for continued upward momentum. But utilizing some timeframe continuity, the bearish outlook has not gone away, as the weekly SPX is dependent on the daily SPX chart. The daily SPX is excepted to reach upside price exhaustion via the TD Sell Setup @9. If the daily selloff is significant enough to erase the gains of last week’s weekly SPX close of 2096.99, the bearish option gains a notch.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX cannot close above 2018.05 by February 27, 2015. 


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