Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Markets received the second surprise move in less than a week’s time. The first being the Swiss National Bank releasing the Swiss Franc peg against the Euro and just a couple days ago, Chinese stocks plunged on news that margin trading will be cut off. Although there was no contagion, events like these often brings along collateral damage. For the indices, this remains a conflicting market, as it continues to carve out a range.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Change to bearish if SPX closes below 1992.86.

Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 7.41.06 PMScreen Shot 2015-01-19 at 8.27.51 PMDue to volatility, the 2 hour SPX timeframe is added to the 4 hour timeframe. Although both timeframe’s TD Sequential/Combo have not reached price exhaustion potential, the SPX is respecting the current TDST Support right at 1991.75, which is coincident to the 150 day moving average. Breaking under that level can have larger negative implications.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch the neutral if SPX closes above 2023.03. 

Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 5.56.55 PMAlternating price flips still indicate an aimless market. To stay on the right side of the trend, it pays to stick with the levels or simply not be involved.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch back to neutral if SPX closes above 2058.20 and the RUT closes above 1198.80. 

Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 5.45.02 PM Screen Shot 2015-01-19 at 5.51.59 PMEven though this week’s reverse price flip occurs at 2088.70, it is more prudent to produce a stop at next week’s price flip.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1972.29 on January 31, 2015.


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