Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.22.30 PMIt was previously thought that oil prices were about to entertain an upside breakout. But that proposal is under threat as oil price are plunging.  Fundamentally, it is difficult to pinpoint a single answer – slower growth in China or Saudi induced supply – are some of the common themes. Technically, it is possible oil prices are expanding their trading range, but the association between the Bollinger bands and the Keltner channel on the monthly crude oil futures shows a momentum turn for much lower prices. Also, the TTM_Squeeze shows oil prices have been coiling for almost 3 years and now it’s showing momentum to the downside. If crude breaks under 71.67, the TDST Support, oil can get increasingly bearish as problems related to production, capex becomes a factor.

For equities, it is a waiting game to see how much higher the indices can go before experiencing the DeMark price exhaustion indicators.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2038.03 today.

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 5.56.55 PMThe trifecta of blue arrows have been recorded. The 4 hour SPX is now free to show some consternation. A close below 2015.86, the TDST Support level, will provide additional confidence that a decent pullback is underway.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 2015.86, the TDST Support for the 4 hour SPX. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 8.43.12 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.09.53 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.15.48 PMScreen Shot 2014-11-11 at 6.19.13 PMOn the various daily charts, the Dow is the first to capture a price exhaustion signal through a TD Combo Sell @13. TD Combo Sell has been successful in front running a reversal the last two occurrences and can go for three for three. On the Nasdaq, another higher close should seal a TD Combo Sell “13”, while the Russell 2000 continues to meander countwise.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1886.76 on November 14, 2014. 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 


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