Monday, November 3, 2014

The incredibly sharp run by the S&P 500 (SPX) was so swift, it left me a vastly underinvested portfolio. Just as stunning was the Bank of Japan announcement that they will buy assets across the board, sending shares of global markets spectacularly higher. With new highs on the Dow and Nasdaq, it appears that high degree selloff has been delayed. The weekly timeframes, which shows a clear successful test of TDST Support levels, could be powering higher and join the monthly timeframes in recording price exhaustion levels. This brings a weekly/monthly projected price exhaustion confluence in early December.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1994.40.

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 3.09.28 PMThe 4 hour SPX is nearing the point of price exhaustion for the short term with TD Sell Countdown three counts away from a ’13’ and TD Combo Sell one count away. If the market continues to be bullish, the next selloff should be buyable, as suggested by recent market breadth readings.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1985.05. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 3.13.12 PMThe SPX is scaling higher now that TD Sell Countdown has been established. The TD Trend Factor at 2027.81 may not be significant since a ‘9’ count TD Buy Setup has been established after the recent high on September 19, 2014 at 2010.40.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1906.13 on November 7, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.29.30 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.38.49 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.39.41 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.41.43 PMAll indices asserted themselves higher with a bullish price flip after testing their respective TDST Support levels. The assumption now is all weekly charts will move on and fulfill their full counts on Countdown and Combo. The one caveat is the monthly charts are at price exhaustion levels.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1930.67 on November 28, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.47.28 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.48.21 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.51.06 PM Screen Shot 2014-11-02 at 4.54.23 PMWhile the ’13’s’ on the SPX are expected to disrupt the bullish trend, it is still technically bullish with a now 27 straight months without a bearish price flip. Adding to the SPX ’13’ cluster is the Dow being one count away from a ’13’ on TD Combo Sell. The Russell 2000 (RUT) is also close to recording ’13’s’ even though it has an active TD Buy Setup. The most notable is the Nasdaq, which just recorded a TD Combo Sell @13 in October. While the market continues to power higher, it is not without risks.


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