Thursday, October 16, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-15 at 8.44.58 PMThe belief that the CBOE 10 year Treasury Index (TNX) hit a major low back in July 2012 still holds, even with the dramatic move Wednesday morning. From the monthly TNX, the base case remains that rates are still bottoming. The game changer in this equation will be assigned to the TDST Support level at 16.14 or 1.614%. A breach underneath the TDST level will cast doubt in the long term bottom scenario.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1877.25.

Screen Shot 2014-10-15 at 8.03.01 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-15 at 8.12.07 PMWith TD Buy Countdown nearing a ’13’ on the 2 hour SPX, a full TD Buy Setup ‘9’ on the 4 hour SPX, and the long ‘hanging man’ candlestick pattern on the daily, some kind of bounce is still expected. With the sell off today, and the lack of price exhaustion from the longer duration timeframes, it is far from all-in buy for equities.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 1906.13

Screen Shot 2014-10-15 at 9.17.11 PMUnless the designated level of 1906.13 breaches to the upside, it is prudent to allow TD Buy Setup, currently on bar ‘7’ guide the way forward. However with the severe morning selloff and the daily candlestick exhibiting a ‘hanging man’ pattern, a ‘perfected’ TD Buy Setup may not occur. If it does occur with another reversal candlestick pattern, we will notch it as a short term bottom.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Unless SPX can close above 2010.40, staying bearish.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 on October 31, 2014. 


Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s