Monday, October 13, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 9.10.34 PMThe S&P 500 (SPX) construct may be serving its purpose. It is built on multiple timeframe confluence and the daily SPX are spilling over to the weekly and monthly timeframes as a result. A combination of an overstretched optimistic market, and various global growth downgrades indicates the beginning of an adjustment period – prices setting up a long term trading range, which can take months to unfold. Until the adjustment period plays out, there should be opportunities both long and short going forward.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Back to neutral if SPX breaches 1955.93 intraday or closes above 1928.41. 

Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 6.02.56 PMScreen Shot 2014-10-12 at 6.03.48 PMDue to volatility, two timeframes are displayed. The 2 hour SPX is suggesting another bounce is due as the first ’13’ has been recorded through TD Sell Countdown. Additional losses on Monday should produce a ‘9’ for TD Buy Setup and possibly ’13’ for TD Combo Buy. Looking at the 4 hour SPX chart, the volatility whipsaws are so great that TD Buy Setups have not been recorded despite a clear downtrend. However, the TDST level at 1916.41 has been breached suggesting that even if there is a bounce, the lows will at be retested once it has been established.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes above 1935.10.

Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 8.20.24 PMFor the first time in a long while, the daily SPX is in TD Buy Countdown mode. Couple that with the SPX trading underneath the daily TDST level at 1928.29, further downside is probable.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Unless SPX can close above 2010.40, staying bearish.

Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 5.12.12 PMScreen Shot 2014-10-12 at 5.18.58 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 5.23.32 PM Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 5.26.30 PMIdea here is to follow the map. Since the Russell 2000 (RUT) is leading in counts, we should expect it to lead to the upside once the downside price exhaustion counts are realized.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1960.23 on October 31, 2014. 


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