Monday, September 8, 2014

The surprise QE announcement by Mario Draghi and the weak non-farm payroll numbers kept equities higher. Data for the upcoming week is light and without any obvious catalyst, the sights for the S&P 500 (SPX) are at the 2027.81 TD Trend Factor level. It is considered an important level, and it especially powerful if combined with TD Sequential. DeMark had experimented with Fibonacci ratios and came up with these TD Trend Factor levels he often cites in the media as major reversal points. Just as the previous 1979.49 TD Trend Factor on the SPX, recorded back in July 3, 2014, these levels often provide equities angst. But they should always be paired with TD Sequential to strengthen the price exhaustion signal.

S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bullish if SPX matches or exceeds 2011.17 intraday and does not close below 2005.56 mid-session OR bearish if SPX closes below 1997.71 end of day. 


Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.07.43 PMSince the second ’13’ recorded on August 26, 2014, there has been a set of four alternating price flips, indicating the consolidation efforts of the SPX equities. If the short term 4 hour SPX is successful in turning bullish, the next TD Trend Factor has been identified at 2027.81. Once again, TD Trend Factors are Fibonacci related stopping points, and combined with TD Sequential, it offers added confidence of a possible reversal.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1997.71, same as Short Term Outlook.

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.10.10 PMDespite the sideways action, the SPX never recorded a reverse price flip. This keeps the trajectory towards the upside. if so, the bigger battle may occur at the TD Trend Factor at 2027.81.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1955.06 on Friday, September 12, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.25.05 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.27.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.29.37 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-07 at 8.30.09 PMWith the exception of the Russell 2000, all the weekly charts are still firmly bullish and exhaustion levels are still weeks away.


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014.


Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s