Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 12.52.17 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.02.10 PMThis week’s primary events revolve around the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US non-farm payroll release. The EUR/USD cross has been sinking as the vast economic deterioration in the Eurozone has brought up the prospects of an official Quantitative Easing program. The question now will this Thursday’s ECB meeting will halt the EUR/USD slide. At this point, it is doubtful the ECB will take major steps to ease monetary policy. While it seems likely the euro will continue to struggle, the daily and weekly TD charts suggest the euro is about to begin efforts to consolidate. Even from the confluence of the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is still making new lows, but the bet is for a “buy the rumor and sell the news’ move. Also supporting this is the weekly EUR/USD is on a TD Buy Setup @8, which has been already been ‘perfected’, further indicating a low is near.


Flip to bearish if SPX, on Tuesday, September 2, 2014, closes below 1998.06 mid-session or 1997.02 on the close. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.27.12 PMThe short term 4 hour SPX officially took a neutral stance on the close on August 29, 2014, with a bearish price flip on the close. Both TD Sell Countdown and TD Sell Combo recorded ’13’s’ and depending on how equities respond, “Neutral” and “Bearish” are the only options for the moment in the short term.


Change to neutral if SPX closes below 2000.02 on Tuesday, September 2, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.24 PMThe rally stays in bullish form with TD Sell Countdown, the second component of TD Sequential, has suggested the up trend still has more to go. However TD Combo Sell can record a ’13’ in the days ahead. Trading above SPX 1985 will keep the short/intermediate term intact until further notice.


Turn to neutral if SPX closes below 1931.59, or if Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1131.35, Friday, September 5, 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.40.40 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.42.04 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.43.55 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.50.11 PMThe premise here is the RUT is playing catch-up to the rest of the indices. If the SPX begins to show trouble, it would show up in the Russell first.


Neutral if SPX closes below 1883.95 on September 30, 2014. 

Screen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.57.09 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 1.59.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.00.03 PMScreen Shot 2014-09-01 at 2.01.48 PMThe charts above give the big picture view from the bottom in 2009. Since 2012, the SPX has not experienced a bearish price flip, but with another set of ’13’ count confluences, expectations are for a termination point as soon as this month. The Nasdaq can also complete a TD Combo Sell ’13’ this month.



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