The 10-year US Treasury yield as represented by the monthly CBOE 10-year Treasury Index (TNX) is still crawling lower. This is helping the equity markets stay afloat longer than they probably should. With the current monthly DeMark count at TD Buy Setup at ‘6’, a perfected ‘8’ count can occur in October, several basis points above the 16.14 TDST Support level. From there, rates can either spike even higher or continue to drift sideways. Either way, the low made back in July 2012 is expected to hold. Equity markets should begin to pull back this week.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 1992.31.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1981.60 today.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1925.15 on Friday, August 29, 2014.
The weekly SPX reasserted itself with a bullish price flip, along with the secondary indices – Dow (DJI), Nasdaq (COMPQ), Russell 2000 (RUT). The RUT has had a bit more trouble staying bullish since the TD Combo ’13’ on March 3, 2014. The Nasdaq chart is the one current outlier. The highs made by the Nasdaq last week has ‘perfected’ the TD Sell Setup. If the Nasdaq begins to deviate from the expected bullish run up, there is a reasonable chance markets are displaying a topping process that are not concurrent with other indices.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Neutral if SPX closes below 1872.34 on August 29th.