An update on the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK). JNK has recycled higher and getting ever more lofty. From the daily chart, JNK’s TD signals counts are all conducive to a selloff a couple days ago. A final “13” for TD Sell Countdown is very close to recording to add to the confluence. While some give back seems necessary to scale off the excessive appetite for high yield paper, if the pullback is nil and the daily recycles higher again, the weekly chart becomes more ominous in about 3-4 weeks. It will be then the loftiness in high yield paper becomes very speculative and a bit dangerous.
Quick words on gold – The prognostication on the short term movements on the SDPR Gold ETF (GLD) has been out of phase with traditional TD movements. While the long term thinking was for gold to build a bullish base, yesterday’s explosive move higher confirmed TD Combo Sell “13”, May 30, 2014, signaled an intermediate bottom and not a relief rally. GLD may waver from here due to the “perfected” TD Sell Setup on the daily, but the weekly bullish price flip signals GLD can challenge 150.
Quadruple witching day to end the weekend. Based on the arrangement of the TD indicators, equities are now in the reversal zone. The nerve center looks to be the middle of next week – especially if the daily TD Sell Countdown on the S&P 500 (SPX) records a “13” right at the TD Trend Factor at 1979.49. Next week’s posts will entertain some bearish options.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1956.94.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1937.78.
The first price exhaustion signal has been recorded. TD Combo Sell completed a “13” and equities are free to move lower starting today. However, a TD Sell Countdown will be considered the primary count since it is more aligned to the counts of the related major indices. If the SPX qualifies a TD Sell Countdown “13” and aligns right with the notated TD Trend Factor at 1979.49, the timing for a reversal looms larger.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1900.53 next Friday, June 20, 2014.
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).