Iraq a failed state? Been tracking crude oil for almost a year (July 10, 2013) and the bullish hypothesis has not changed. If Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures (CL_F) can push above the weekly TDST Resistance level at 108.60 before it records a daily TD “9” or “13”, the weekly chart will become the dominant chart and en route to a confirmed breakout. The monthly crude chart tells the big picture. Hovering in and around the $100 mark, crude is coiling upwards, and with the TTM_Squeeze indicator pointing higher, oil is poised to go higher – either through demand as global GDP rises or through growing geopolitical problems. Preference is for the former, not the latter.
The way the TD signals are shaping up, still looking for another push towards new highs where either TD Sell Countdown or TD Combo Sell can hit a maximum “13” count. But those views will be challenged if S&P 500 (SPX) breaches under 1920. Details below.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Switch to bullish if 4 hour SPX closes above 1943.88.
The view taken is equities are retracing the extended rally from SPX 1900 and will extend to new highs. What will change the bullish view if the SPX breaks below the minor inflection area between 1918.60 – 1922.93. A break underneath that level will give consideration to the bearish picture in the near future.
S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
Back to bullish if SPX closes above 1943.88, same as 4 hour SPX.
The 8 day moving average is broken along with a fairly strong down candle on the SPX. Losing the Russell 2000 (RUT) TD Sell Setup is a disappointment since it served a a good reference point. Staying neutral for now, but if SPX fails to hold the 1920 level, a closer examination on the market makeup will be prudent.
S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1877.86 on Friday, June 13, 2014 (updated June 9, 2014).
S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH
Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).