Wednesday, June 11, 2014

ImageTD counts for the daily futures markets — e-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq e-mini, and the Russell 2000 mini — are fairly aligned with their respective cash markets. If the Russell 2000 futures can maintain a “9” count TD Sell Setup through next Tuesday, June 17th, it is likely the S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures and cash markets will make higher highs and complete their respective TD Combo Sells. All this will set-up another pivot day when the Federal Reserve Board meets next Wednesday, June 18th.

The rally in equities is finally at risk as the the short term 4 hour S&P 500 price flipped bearish. Although this will viewed as a minor inflection point, preparing for negative surprises is prudent.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Neutral if SPX closes below 1951.07. 

ImageThe 4 hour SPX finally price flipped in the first half of the trading session yesterday. Given the initial thrust from the 1900 level with 27 consecutive TD Sell Setup bars, this is proving to be a strong rally. The SPX has a chance to recycle higher if it can close above 1951.07. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1940.46.

ImageThe TD Sell Countdown @6 and TD Combo Sell @11 count spread are still far apart. A minor pullback, followed by new highs can align the counts together, and put together a stronger case for a meaningful pullback next week.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1877.86 on Friday, June 13, 2014 (updated June 9, 2014). 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).  


 

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