Thursday, June 5, 2014

The ECB has signaled another era for the eurozone by cutting rates in the negative, and they may not even be done yet, as Mario Draghi still has own version of QE he can deploy. The S&P 500 (SPX) has responded with a positive opening, trading near the TD Trend Factor at 1931.18. This will be considered the bull/bear line. The SPX is allowed to trade above the Trend Factor, but should fade beneath it by the close. Any close above it will strengthen the cause for the TD Sell Countdown setup for equities. A close below will look towards tomorrow with the jobs report, and see if the market was simply consolidating or reversing. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Change to neutral if SPX closes below 1924.24.

ImageOn the 4 hour SPX chart, one of the two competing counts recorded a “13” with TD Combo Sell. The other count, TD Sell Countdown, is still active and can record a “13” at the close of Friday at the latest. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1923.57 and the Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1134.50.

ImageImageImageThe daily SPX is officially in TD Sell Countdown mode. The Nasdaq has “perfected” the TD Sell Setup with a higher high above bar “7”. Now it’s officially free to move lower or move into the trending component of TD Sequential, TD Sell Countdown. The RUT is still the weak link, much like earlier in the year. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Back to neutral if SPX closes below 1878.48 next Friday on June 6th (updated May 30th). 


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Switch to neutral if SPX closes below 1859.45 on June 30th (updated June 2nd).


 

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