Wednesday, May 28, 2014

ImageFollowup on Netflix (NFLX) from last week. Since Netflix was ahead in TD counts compared to other momentum stocks, it would give an idea of what liquidity is like for equity markets if leading stocks like Netflix can continue on the momentum run after TD Sell Setup has been qualified. Looking at Netflix now, it is still on an active TD Sell Setup, and it has entered into TD Sell Countdown, the trend component of TD Sequential. This is bullish for Netflix and could spill over to other stocks in the momo class going forward. 

ImageFor an additional test, take a look at Tesla (TSLA). The daily chart of Tesla traded into a “perfected” TD Sell Setup @9 just under the TDST Resistance at 218.45. This is traditionally a bearish setup, but if Tesla powers ahead without a bearish price flip, it will also send a message of just how much liquidity is in the overall equity markets. 

On a broader based test, the 4 hour S&P 500 (SPX) will record a TD Sell Setup @9 today, and some market digestion would be expected between today and tomorrow. Similar to individual stocks, higher highs from the current 4 hour SPX TD Sell Setup juncture provides the interpretation that there is no market price exhaustion yet.  


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1900.57.

ImageThe 4 hour SPX will likely record a TD Sell Setup @9 this morning. Accordingly, the market is expected to take a breather at some point today. As long as the S&P 500 does not close below 1900 (1900.57 for TD Sequential purposes), the market remains bullish. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1888.03.

ImageImageThe daily Nasdaq recorded a TD Sell Countdown “13”, but technically it does not qualify since the Nasdaq traded below its TDST Support level. Although the “13” is notated, the count should be considered “stale” in the face of a volatility squeeze (TTM_Squeeze). 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

On May 30th, change to bearish if weekly SPX closes below 1881.14, or change to bullish if weekly SPX registers a TD Combo Sell by closing above 1902.17 (updated May 27th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if the SPX does not trade above 1897.28 during the month of May and closes below 1836.27 on May 30th, the 8 month MA. Alternatively, flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1782.59 on May 30th (updated May 5th).


 

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2 Responses to Wednesday, May 28, 2014

  1. peter says:

    GLD is barely above TDST Support at 120.73 and looks unlikely to close above 127.62 this month. Can you update your take on it? Thanks!

    • Art says:

      Yes, I was going to do it today but decided to wait. I’ll get it out tomorrow. It’s barely holding…but it’s holding.

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