Friday, May 23, 2014

ImageImageImageRevisiting gold. After a combination of TD selling exhaustion signals for the daily/weekly/monthly timeframes in late 2013, the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) produced a nice rally that terminated right at the daily TD Combo Sell @13 on March 14th. The rally was good enough to stay on the bullish side, and the interpretation was for GLD to resume the uptrend following the “9” count TD Buy Setup on March 28th. There was a rally attempt, but GLD managed to to stay in TD Buy Countdown mode and recorded a “13” for TD Buy Countdown two days ago. With the daily trading above the TDST Support at 120.73, the top interpretation is still bullish, especially if GLD can close above 127.62 this month to keep the monthly TD Sell Setup active. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Bearish if SPX closes below 1872.83, next day price flip for daily or bullish if SPX records a daily TD Sell Combo by closing above 1892.49, along with an intraday high at 1900 or above.

ImageImageDrilling down to the 2 hour SPX timeframe, it has recorded a non “perfected” TD Sell Setup and one count short of completing a “13” to finish a TD Sell Countdown. If there is an initial morning spike to higher highs to complete the counts, the next phase is to see if the SPX can get low enough to reverse flip the 4 hour TD Sell Setup with a close below 1887.86. The most bullish case is if SPX spikes above 1900 and holds that level. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Same as Short Term Outlook: Bearish if SPX closes below 1872.83, next day price flip for daily or bullish if SPX records a TD Sell Combo by closing above 1892.49, along with an intraday high at 1900 or above.

ImageImageImageThe Nasdaq is already bullish and the Russell 2000 (RUT) is outperforming. Let’s see if can help the SPX to continued higher highs. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if weekly SPX closes below 1863.40 on May 23rd (updated May 19th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if the SPX does not trade above 1897.28 during the month of May and closes below 1836.27 on May 30th, the 8 month MA. Alternatively, flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1782.59 on May 30th (updated May 5th).


 

 

 

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