Friday, May 16, 2014

ImageAs the small cap sector is the weak link among the major indices, watch the 1081.71 level on the Russell 2000 (RUT). 1081.71 is the second degree TD Trend Factor, and it was tested yesterday with a low print in the RUT at 1082.53, along with a closing hanging man candlestick pattern. If the RUT continues to consolidate in this area, equities could be setting up for more sloppy trading next week. So many moving parts.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Switch to neutral if the Nasdaq closes above 4057.12 and the RUT closes above 1103.93.

ImageNot expecting much today, but on the lookout for some washout selling as long as the 4 hour TD Buy Setup is still active on the SPX.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Same as Short Term Outlook, switch to neutral if the Nasdaq closes above 4057.12 and the RUT closes above 1103.93.

ImageImageWhile the RUT is trading under its TDST Support at 1103.93, it is holding the door open for the Nasdaq to close under its TDST Support at 4057.12. This will add another piece to the bearish case. Also note, the SPX can price flip bearish on the weekly chart with a modest close under 1864.85 today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1864.85 on May 16th (updated May 12th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if the SPX does not trade above 1897.28 during the month of May and closes below 1836.27 on May 30th, the 8 month MA. Alternatively, flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1782.59 on May 30th (updated May 5th).


 

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