Wednesday, May 14, 2014

ImageSubdued market yesterday. But effectively, nothing has changed. Equity indices did not charge higher nor did they reverse. The DeMark Dow watch did produce a marginal higher high, but drilling down to the 4 hour Dow chart, they are reaching price exhaustion levels, similar to the 4 hour S&P 500 chart. The 4 hour Dow produced a “13” on TD Sell Countdown and could produce a 9 count “perfected” TD Sell Setup with another intraday high of 16,724.86 or more. These short term price exhaustion signals (DOW or SPX) can help front run the daily charts, but equities should start showing weakness no later than the last recorded “9” or “13” or risk an upside overshoot.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM STATUS: NEUTRAL

Switch back to bearish if SPX closes below 1892.72 mid-day and does not close above 1896.74 at the end of the day. If these parameters are not met, then the Short/Intermediate Term Outlook levels will be used. 

ImageFor the 4 hour SPX chart, TD Sell Countdown “13” has been recorded yesterday and the possibility of TD Combo Sell recording a “13” still exists. If TD Combo Sell does completes a “13”, the best bear scenario is if the SPX closes above 1898.68 and below 1900 at the end of the day. The TTM_Squeeze has started upwards and a close above 1900 will imply additional highs. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip back to bearish if any of the following occurs: SPX closes below 1878.48, Nasdaq closes below 4057.12, or Russell 2000 (RUT) closes below 1103.93.

ImageImageImageHaving either the Nasdaq or the RUT close below their respective TDST Support levels at this juncture will be indicative of a continuing weak market and the SPX should follow suit, even though it may not officially price flip bearish. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1864.85 on May 16th (updated May 12th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if the SPX does not trade above 1897.28 during the month of May and closes below 1836.27 on May 30th, the 8 month MA. Alternatively, flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1782.59 on May 30th (updated May 5th).


 

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