Tuesday, May 13, 2014

ImageIn accordance to Tom DeMark’s recent interviews, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) is in the realm of a top. All of his price conditions have been met, which were a new all time closing high above 16,581 and a higher high above 16,661. The Dow closed at 16,695.47 and the high was 16,704.84. If the DeMark scenario holds, the Dow and the SPX needs to start showing weakness, as soon as the 4 hour SPX hones in on their exhaustion points outlined below.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM STATUS: NEUTRAL

Switch back to bearish if SPX closes below 1878.12.

ImageThe festering Keltner/Bollinger volatility squeeze (represented by the TTM_Squeeze) in the 4 hour SPX suggests price can move sharply higher, and if all this is one bull trap, then the market needs to show weakness if both TD Sell Countdown and TD Combo Sell record “13’s” as soon as today. If 1900 gets blown through today, the Keltner/Bollinger forces are likely taking over.


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Flip back to bearish if SPX closes below 1878.21.

ImageA strong bullish price flip in the SPX, but since the SPX did not have a proper correction, the 4 hour SPX timeframe will take the lead with potential exhaustion points coming up as soon as today.


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch to bearish if SPX closes below 1864.85 on May 16th (updated May 12th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM STATUS: BULLISH

Flip to neutral if the SPX does not trade above 1897.28 during the month of May and closes below 1836.27 on May 30th, the 8 month MA. Alternatively, flip to neutral if SPX closes below 1782.59 on May 30th (updated May 5th).


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