Thursday, May 1, 2014

ImageA stray observation about tomorrow’s labor report. Since April of 2013, the headline non farm payroll (NFP) number missed consensus about half the time. But the market effect as demonstrated by the S&P 500 (SPX) column chart had no bearing as the SPX has recorded a gain every single NFP release since May of 2013. That is, up until last month, the SPX recorded a 1.25% loss. Just want to take notice when streaks end. 

Watching the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 (RUT). They are showing some bottoming signs ahead of their respective TDST Support levels. Still taking a cautious approach to the markets with the weekly and monthly overhang. But if tomorrow’s NFP is market positive, a bullish case has to be considered with the intermediate bearish case, as the longer term price exhaustion signals are contending with the weekly Bollinger/Keltner volatility squeeze. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch back to bearish if SPX closes below 1878.38.

ImageImageThe 2 hour hour SPX closed with a TD Sell Countdown @13, but a meaningful effect will be for the 4 hour SPX to close below 1878.38, providing a price initiation to test the lower ranges again. 


S&P 500 (SPX) SHORT/INTERMEDIATE TERM OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL

Switch back to bearish if SPX closes below 1863.40.

ImageImageImageIf the Nasdaq closes above 4075.56 and the RUT closes above 1123.03 today, a bullish case will be up for discussion depending on the market reaction towards tomorrow’s non-farm payroll release. It’s treading a fine line considering the weekly SPX will generate a “13”, but some consideration has to be given to the bullish side if quality bullish candles are generated right off the TDST Support levels for the Nasdaq and the RUT. 


S&P 500 (SPX) INTERMEDIATE/LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BEARISH

Neutral if SPX closes above 1857.62 on Friday, May 2nd (updated April 28th).


S&P 500 (SPX) LONG TERM OUTLOOK: BULLISH

Outlook will change to neutral if all of the following indices close below their indicated levels on May 30th: SPX 1782.59, Nasdaq 4176.59, RUT 1163.64.

ImageImageImageImage18 consecutive bars without a price flip exemplifies a strong market. So far the SPX has risen 21 bars without a price flip, followed by the RUT with 19, and the the Nasdaq with 15. April has notched a monthly “13” on TD Combo Sell for the SPX since both April’s high and close are higher than March’s high and close. While price exhaustion confluences among the weekly and monthly timeframes are present and caution is warranted, it is still officially bullish until the monthly timeframe price flips bearish.


 

 

 

 

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